Money is rotating into bonds, money markets and precious metals because the era of 20% to 30% stock-market returns can’t last forever, LaValle said.Gold serves as an “insurance policy. You don’t cancel it when the premium rises, and you don’t double down when it pays out,” he said. “You rightsize it, you hold it and you let it do its job.”Despite record highs, the investment case for gold hasn’t changed, Louis LaValle, co-founder and chief executive officer at Frontier Investments, told MarketWatch. “Every ...

CONCLUDED Stock Market News From Sept. 11, 2025: S&P 500 Hits New High Last Updated: 4 hours ago Gold Backtracks From Record High By Kirk Maltais, Dow Jones Newswires Wednesday's record close in gold appears to be the newest high watermark, at least now. Front-month gold futures finish down 0.2% to $3,636.90 a troy ounce, but that still the fourth-highest close in the front-month contract's history. The luster hasn't diminished from the outlook for gold's performance, says Trevor Yates of Global X ETFs in a ...

Last Updated: 11 hours ago Gold Sets New Record High. Rate Expectations Are Helping. By CONCLUDED Stock Market News From Sept. 9, 2025: Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq All Hit Records Callum Keown Gold continued its march higher into uncharted record territory Tuesday as investors emboldened their bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts. Gold futures rose 0.4% to $3,692, reaching $3,698 at one point, in early trading. The precious metal has climbed 40% so far in 2025. Traders are pricing in a 67% chance of three rate cut ...

Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $3,662 per ounce on Wednesday, up 0.5% from Tuesday’s close of $3,643.30. The price of gold first rose above $3,600 on September 5. Investors are pricing in an interest rate reduction on Sept. 17, but two inflation reports this week could complicate the Fed’s decision-making. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the producer price index today and the consumer price index on Thursday. Both reports are expected to show prices rose 0.3% in August, the month many of P ...

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 03 September 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. Flows & Liquidity Where is the "Fed independence trade" mostly seen? Cross Asset Fund Flow Monitor Current level shows the latest percentile of weekly f ...

**行业与公司概览** - **行业**：全球股市（美股、欧股、亚洲市场）、大宗商品（黄金、原油）、加密货币（ETH） - **公司**：高盛（Goldman Sachs）及其客户持仓数据 --- **核心观点与论据** **1 市场表现与主题篮子** - **美股表现**： - S&P 500本周上涨2.4%至历史新高（6,389.45点），年内累计涨幅8.6%[3][4] - Nasdaq 100本周涨3.7%，年内涨12.4%，Russell 2000年内仍跌0.5%[3] - 全球主题篮子表现： - **领涨**：全球稀土（GSXGRARE，周涨14.64%，年内涨167.35%）、全球铜（GSXGCOPP，周涨6.9%）、科技巨头（GSTMTMEG，周涨5.15%）[3] - **领跌**：减肥药（GSHLCBMI，周跌5.83%）、天然气（GSENNATG，周跌2.22%）[3] **2 资金流动与持仓变化** - **对冲基金（HFs）**： - 净卖出美股速度创4个月新高，宏观产品（指数+ETF）占净卖出的90%[11] - 科技股连续三周净卖出，速度创4个月新高，硬件和软件板块领跌[11] - 房地产股净买入量创3.5个月新高，住宅REITs和医疗REITs为主力[10] - **杠杆率**： - 美国多空对冲基金总杠杆率降至207.6%（3年90%分位），净杠杆率52.5%（中位数）[6][7] **3 大宗商品与衍生品** - **黄金**： - 因美国拟对金条加征关税，黄金期货（GCZ5）周涨4%，创历史新高（3,534.1美元/盎司）[24] - 西方资金流入主导，但CFTC管理资金净多头持仓处于1年28%分位[24] - **原油**： - 地缘政治风险缓和导致看跌期权需求上升，布伦特原油3个月5Delta看跌/平值波动率比升至1年高位[25] - **加密货币**： - ETH周涨11.5%，因监管利好（SEC明确流动性质押非证券）[26] **4 行业动态** - **工业与房地产**： - 房地产板块受益于鸽派美联储预期，CRE经纪商交易量同比增15-30%[54] - 工业股波动率超预期，住房相关股票（如IBP）因财报超预期涨23%[52] - **消费与金融**： - 消费股财报反应疲软（无论好坏），资金轮动至房地产和科技[53] - 支付板块受美联储降低借记卡费率提案冲击，银行EPS或受影响1-3%[54] **5 宏观与策略** - **通胀与利率**： - 高盛预计9月降息概率上升，但关税或推高短期通胀[44][48] - 建议做空低收入 discretionary 篮子（GSXULOWD） vs 做多住房篮子（GSXUHOME）[44] - **衍生品策略**： - 推荐买入SPY 8月看跌期权 + 卖出9月看涨期权，对冲CPI数据风险[40] - 个股波动率处于低位（NDX 3个月隐含波动率1年20%分位），适合替换股票持仓[41] --- **其他重要细节** - **ETF动向**：公司债ETF和大盘股ETF空头仓位月增5.7%[11] - **期权市场**：SPX 0DTE看涨期权单日成交超11万份，VIX周降5点至15.32[37] - **历史规律**：美联储降息周期中，消费板块通常表现最差（38%概率正收益）[50] --- **注**：数据截至2025年8月8日，来源为高盛FICC、股票及Prime Services部门[36][55]。

黄金价格波动 - 黄金期货周五攀升至历史新高每盎司3491.30美元 随后因白宫声明回落至3463.30美元 [1][2] - 现货黄金连续第二周上涨 受关税动荡和美国降息预期推动 [1] 美国关税政策 - 美国对进口1公斤及100盎司金条征收39%关税 瑞士作为全球最大黄金精炼国受影响显著 [2][4] - 美国海关与边境保护局明确上述规格金条不享受关税豁免 该政策适用于所有进口国 [4] 行业影响 - 瑞士贵金属协会警告关税可能负面影响黄金国际流动 尤其担忧与美国长期物理黄金交换受冲击 [2][3] - 白宫计划发布行政命令澄清关于金条关税的错误信息 [2]

职业背景 - 拥有超过25年股票、金融和商品市场经验 [1] - 曾在FWN新闻通讯社担任财经记者多年 [1] - 报道过芝加哥和纽约商品期货交易大厅的动态 [1] - 覆盖过美国所有期货市场的报道 [1] 专业服务 - 运营"Jim Wyckoff on the Markets"分析、教育和交易咨询服务 [2] - 曾任道琼斯通讯社技术分析师 [2] - 担任TraderPlanetcom高级市场分析师 [2] - 为"Pro Farmer"农业咨询服务提供顾问服务 [2] - 曾任CapitalistEdgecom股票分析主管 [2] 教育背景 - 毕业于爱荷华州立大学 [2] - 主修新闻学和经济学 [2] 日常服务 - 在Kitcocom提供每日早晚市场综述 [3] - 发布每日技术分析专题 [3]