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2Q26 Earnings Preview: Positive Backdrop-20260713
摩根士丹利· 2026-07-13 13:12
July 13, 2026 04:01 AM GMT Business & Education Services | North America 2Q26 Earnings Preview: Positive Backdrop We look at 2Q commentary from our Business Services companies ahead of earnings. Similarly to 1Q, we expect any organic growth weakness to be punished and attributed to AI, while investors will be looking forward towards implied 2H performance. Key Takeaways How are we thinking about the set-up into 2Q? Strong issuance (+20%), capital market activity (M&A announcements+64%), ETF AUM linked to MS ...
The Leaders, The Laggards, and The Context – 7/13/26-20260713
摩根士丹利· 2026-07-13 13:12
July 13, 2026 04:01 AM GMT Business & Education Services | North America The Leaders, The Laggards, and The Context – 7/13/26 Business Services stocks underperformed the S&P 500 by 161 bps this week. ANDG (+18%) and KLC (+4%) outperformed, while CLVT (-14%) and MH (-7%) underperformed. Info Services is ~7-turns below its 5yr NTM EV/EBITDA multiple; Diversified Business Services is ~2-turns lower. Exhibit 1: Business Services Performance Summary | | | | | Performance | | | | % vs. 52 | | --- | --- | --- | -- ...
The Weekly Worldview: Fading Oil Shock, AI Capex and the BoJ‘s Next Step-20260713
摩根士丹利· 2026-07-13 13:12
July 13, 2026 04:01 AM GMT Global Economic Briefing | North America The Weekly Worldview: Fading Oil Shock, AI Capex and the BoJ's Next Step M Japan's resilient wage cycle and AI-capex tailwinds support two more BoJ hikes, but easing food and energy inflation are likely to cap the terminal rate. We had written that the fading oil shock strengthened Asia's macro backdrop as the AI-led export upcycle broadened into a more durable industrial capex cycle. Although the news cycle remains a bit murky, Asian centr ...
2Q26 Estimate Revisions: Marathon Petroleum Corp | North America-20260713
摩根士丹利· 2026-07-13 13:12
July 13, 2026 04:01 AM GMT Marathon Petroleum Corp | North America 2Q26 Estimate Revisions MPC's blended crack more than doubled Q/Q, while volumes rebound post heavy maintenance, driving strong Refining results. Midstream higher Q/Q due to absence of 1Q impacts (winter storm, derivatives). Renewable Diesel benefits from stronger margins & volumes. MSe 2Q EPS of $13.96 vs cons. of $12.81. Key takeaways by segment: M Update Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Joe Laetsch, CFA Equity Analyst Joe.Laetsch@morganstanley.co ...
Valuation Views07/13/26 – Mixed Software Tape as AI Infrastructure Outperforms-20260713
摩根士丹利· 2026-07-13 13:12
July 13, 2026 04:01 AM GMT Software | North America Valuation Views 07/13/26 – Mixed Software Tape as AI Infrastructure Outperforms Software saw more muted performance last week (up 1.1% vs. S&P/Nasdaq +1.2%/+1.7%) as the AI trade favored semis/ networking over applications, cybersecurity weakened and rates pressured multiples. RPD (+20%), AKAM (+12%) and NET (+11%) led, while SABR (-12%), SAIL (-10%) and VIA (-7%) lagged. Assessing Software – Price Performance | | | | | Performance | | | 52 Week High | | | ...
Raising estimates & PT to $108on better yield; Q2 App downloads up45% Y/Y-20260713
摩根士丹利· 2026-07-13 13:12
July 13, 2026 04:00 AM GMT Increasing our estimates and PT to $108. CY26/27/28 revenue estimates come up by 2%/4%/7% to $821/$1,001/$1,182mn and EBIT estimates by 3%/9%/12% to $222/ $300/$378mn respectively ( Exhibit 5 ). The increase is mostly due to better than expected yield, which we now model at 4.30%/4.45%/4.60% in CY26/27/28, up from 4.10%/4.14%/4.18% though still leaving room for upside if execution remains strong. For additional details on the company's first Investor Day, please see - Movement Con ...
The Analog Playbook: 2Q26: 800v dynamics in play-20260713
摩根士丹利· 2026-07-13 13:12
Technology - Global Semiconductors July 13, 2026 04:00 AM GMT The Analog Playbook: 2Q26 800v dynamics in play We launch our quarterly analog playbook identifying market focus into the print. This quarter we expect investor focus on (i) whether improving orders are a reflection of inventory restocking or genuine end-market acceleration, and (ii) power semi deployment in the data center. We expect the Q2 quarterly prints to build on the improving demand trends that emerged last quarter. Channel inventories co ...
Fading Oil Shock, AI Capex and the BoJ‘s Next Step-20260713
摩根士丹利· 2026-07-13 13:11
July 13, 2026 04:01 AM GMT Podcast | The Weekly Worldview | North America M Idea Fading Oil Shock, AI Capex and the BoJ's Next Step Japan's resilient wage cycle and AI-capex tailwinds support two more BoJ hikes, but easing food and energy inflation are likely to cap the terminal rate. Play Audio Related Research: Global Economic Briefing | The Weekly Worldview: Fading Oil Shock, AI Capex and the BoJ's Next Step Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Seth B Carpenter Chief Global Economist Seth.Carpenter@morganstanley.com ...
Brazil National Mining Plan2050-20260713
摩根士丹利· 2026-07-13 13:11
July 13, 2026 03:59 AM GMT Latin America Metals & Mining | Latin America Brazil National Mining Plan 2050 Importantly, the plan does not signal an imminent mining royalty-rate increase (CFEM). It rather emphasizes clearer disclosures, stronger municipal involvement, development-oriented spending, measurable local outcomes and public oversight of how the money is spent. The most tangible targets are: 1) Expansion of detailed geological mapping from 28% of the territory in 2025 to 52% in 2055, enable by more ...
Fast Lane: "Hot Shot" Trucking Experiencing Increased Adoption? MS Survey Says Probably Not, New TSLA Semi Order, & Class8 Orders-20260713
摩根士丹利· 2026-07-13 13:11
We conducted a survey of 181 Brokers, Shippers, and Carriers to assess recent and expected use of "hot shot" trucks and other non-traditional equipment. "Hot Shot" trucking is a specialized service that uses medium-duty pickup trucks, such as Class 3-5 trucks, to pull attached flatbed trailers in a time efficient manner. There is a thesis emerging amongst Shippers that hot-shot capacity could fill in for significant portions of the current Class 8 supply side shortage, at least in the short term, which made ...