市场表现与估值 - 标普500指数在10月份上涨2.3%，为连续第六个月上涨，年初至今累计上涨16% [1][6][12] - 纳斯达克综合指数年初至今上涨约23% [6][12] - 当前涨势将标普500指数的远期市盈率推高至23倍以上，估值水平约为25年前互联网泡沫以来的最高水平 [3][12] - 自当前牛市开始三年多以来，对人工智能的热情已推动标普500指数上涨90% [8][12] 企业盈利 - 企业盈利普遍超出预期，根据LSEG IBES数据，第三季度标普500利润预计将同比增长13.8% [2][12] - 截至周三，已公布业绩的标普500公司中有44%的公司，其中83%的盈利超出预期，若保持该水平，这将是历史第六高的超预期率 [7][12] - 未来一周将有超过130家指数成分股公司公布业绩 [2][12] 宏观经济与货币政策 - 美联储在10月货币政策会议上如期降息25个基点，但美联储主席鲍威尔表示12月下次会议降息“并非已成定局”，令投资者对近期进一步降息的预期产生怀疑 [1][2][12] - 美国政府停摆始于10月1日，现已成为继2018-2019年持续35天的停摆之后第二长的停摆，导致原定于11月7日发布的月度就业数据等官方经济报告延迟发布 [10][12] - 投资者评估经济健康状况将更多地依赖替代数据，如ADP就业报告和密歇根大学消费者信心指数 [10][12] 行业与个股动态 - 科技巨头业绩喜忧参半，Meta Platforms和微软在发布季度财报后股价下跌，两家公司均宣布增加支出以推动人工智能扩张 [7][12] - Alphabet也提高了其资本支出预期，但由于投资者更能接受其用现金流支持计划的能力，股价上涨 [8][12] - 亚马逊因其云部门强劲增长缓解了在AI竞赛中落后的担忧，股价在周五大幅上涨 [8][12] - 下周将公布业绩的科技公司包括半导体公司AMD和高通，以及数据分析公司Palantir Technologies，Palantir和AMD股价今年均上涨超过一倍，高通股价上涨约18% [9][12] - 亚马逊本周宣布将在全球裁员约14,000人，并预计明年将进一步裁员 [12] 季节性因素与市场情绪 - 根据《股票交易员年鉴》，自1950年以来，11月是标普500平均表现最好的月份，平均涨幅为1.87%，12月平均涨幅为1.43%，排名第三 [6][12] - 历史数据显示，自1950年以来，标普500在年初前十个月涨幅至少达15%的情况出现过21次，除一次例外，其余情况下该指数在最后两个月均录得上涨 [7][12] - 投资者一方面担忧与人工智能主题相关的潜在过度狂热，另一方面渴望看到AI投资带来回报的证据 [8][12]

Federal Reserve governor and chair candidate Christopher Waller joined "Kudlow" to shut down Chairman Jerome Powell’s claim the agency is driving through "fog." Powell said Wednesday the lack of key economic data caused by the government shutdown has given the Federal Reserve an unclear view of the economy."This fog story has just got to stop," Waller told FOX Business host Larry Kudlow. "The fog might tell you to slow down. It doesn't tell you to pull over to the side of the road. You still have to go. You ...

Stephen. >> Yeah. More hawkish comments this morning from the Fed.Dallas Fed President Lori Logan saying this economic outlook did not call for cutting interest rates. She says she will find it difficult to cut rates again in December. Not a voter this year, but a voter next year.She says that is true unless inflation is falling faster or the labor market is cooling more than appears apparent now or than forecast. The labor market, she says, remains balanced. It's cooling slowly.inflation is too high and it ...

Marine Products (NYSE:MPX) Q3 2025 Earnings Call October 30, 2025 08:00 AM ET Speaker2Good morning and thank you for joining us for Marine Products Corporation's third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Today's call will be hosted by Ben Palmer, President and CEO, and Mike Schmidt, Chief Financial Officer. At this time, all participants are in listen only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. Instructions will be provided at that time for you to queue up for qu ...

涉及的行业或公司 * 美国联邦储备系统（美联储）及其10月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议[1][3][8][9] * 摩根士丹利及其各策略团队（利率策略、外汇策略、机构MBS策略）[3][6][23][72] 核心观点和论据 * 美联储政策立场转向数据依赖，12月降息并非定局 美联储将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至3.75%-4.0%[9] 委员会内部存在分歧，Schmid主席支持维持利率不变，Miran理事支持降息50个基点[3][10] 鲍威尔主席在新闻发布会上态度偏鹰派，强调政策并非预设路径，12月降息"远非既定事实"[3][8][17][21] 未来的利率决策将更加依赖数据，但政府停摆可能导致关键数据缺失，影响12月决策[1][3][20] * 量化紧缩（QT）将于12月1日提前结束 委员会决定在12月1日结束资产负债表缩减，早于预期[3][9][40] 从12月1日开始，机构抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）的所有本金偿付将再投资于国债[9][15][40] 此决定是基于货币市场回购利率上升以及有效联邦基金利率相对于IORB上升做出的[14][40] 目标是使美联储的资产负债表期限更短，更接近未偿国债的构成[15][49][79] * 摩根士丹利维持12月再次降息25个基点的预期，但承认风险增加 公司预计第四季度经济增长将放缓，失业率在年底前将上升[3][22] 公司维持对12月额外降息25个基点的预测[3][22] 然而，数据缺失可能导致美联储比预期更早暂停降息，风险已转向更少的降息[3][20][22] * 各资产类别的投资策略相应调整 利率策略团队建议退出长期国债和定期SOFR曲线趋陡交易，以及FFF6多头，但维持5年期国债多头和2年期国债互换利差多头[6][25][37] 外汇策略团队认为美元近期有反弹空间，但中期仍看跌，主因是收益率压缩、实际利率下降和美国增长优势减弱[6][57][59][69] 机构MBS策略团队认为，尽管面临熊市趋平压力，但对于使用互换进行对冲的投资者（如银行、REITs、GSEs）而言，当前环境可能有利[6][81][86] 其他重要但可能被忽略的内容 * 政府停摆对数据可用性的潜在影响 鲍威尔将缺乏数据的情况比喻为"在雾中驾驶"，暗示可能需要放缓政策调整步伐[20][24] 9月份的非农就业数据可能在停摆结束后一周内发布，但增长和通胀数据可能需要更长时间[20] 停摆若持续，将对公司连续降息的观点构成风险[1][3] * 美联储资产负债表构成的详细变化 美联储希望其资产负债表更接近未偿国债的期限构成，目前其投资组合中超配长期债券，低配短期债券[15][49][79] 通过将MBS本金再投资于国债，估计每月将增加约150亿美元的国债需求[49][74] 为实现这一目标，美联储需要将其国债持有量增加约7000亿美元[50] * 机构MBS市场的具体技术面因素 预计美联储MBS投资组合的月度偿付额约为180亿美元，远低于350亿美元的上限，因此在10月和11月不太可能触发再投资[74][75] MBS相对于互换的利差目前比2019年的平均水平宽40个基点，对于使用互换对冲的投资者具有吸引力[84][86] 其他积极因素包括强劲的REIT需求、银行持有现金的动机减弱、QT结束以及负的净传统发行量[87]

Now, let's get a trader take with regard to what's happening given the Fed interest rate decision, the commentary around that, and everything else we've heard from our all-star panel. Steve Graasso, CEO of Grasso Global, also a CNBC contributor, often seen on Fast Money. Take us through what your initial read has been given what you heard about the rate story, what you heard about the commentary in there, and what you've heard from our panelists so far.>> So, anything less than a cut would have been a probl ...

Neils ChristensenNeils Christensen has a diploma in journalism from Lethbridge College and has more than a decade of reporting experience working for news organizations throughout Canada. His experiences include covering territorial and federal politics in Nunavut, Canada. He has worked exclusively within the financial sector since 2007, when he started with the Canadian Economic Press. Neils can be contacted at: 1 866 925 4826 ext. 1526 nchristensen at kitco.com @Neils_cShareDisclaimer: The views expressed ...

The economy is also encountering a “conundrum,” with strong consumer spending boosting growth yet the job market faltering somewhat, Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave wrote in a note to clients. Or at least it was back in August, when the most recent official jobs report was released—the shutdown has meant the September report hasn’t arrived.If the Fed has been non-committal, it’s partly because Fed officials are divided . Inflation is higher than the Fed might like , prompting some policymakers to sup ...

Gold, supported by the weakening dollar, among other factors, is the star of the commodities space in 2025. That rising tide is lifting a lot of ETF boats, including those funds that provide exposure to multiple commodities. Those are among the reasons the bank recently boosted its 2026 gold price forecast to $4,400 per troy ounce. That's well above the prior estimate of $3,313. That revised projection also implies a decent level of appreciation from where the metal resides today. It's possible gold and ET ...

Key Points Data center REIT Digital Realty Trust should be a natural beneficiary of further interest rate cuts. D.R. Horton could profit if another Fed rate cut helps bring mortgage rates lower. Verizon might attract attention from bond investors if rate cuts cause bond yields to dip. These 10 stocks could mint the next wave of millionaires › There were positives and negatives with the latest inflation report. The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased at a lower rate than expected. Howev ...