投资评级 - 全球基金经理调查显示自2025年2月以来最看涨的情绪 现金水平低至3.9% 股票配置达7个月高点 全球增长乐观情绪大幅跃升 [1] 核心观点 - 67%的基金经理预计经济将实现软着陆 18%预计无着陆 仅10%预计硬着陆 [2][21][23] - 47%的基金经理预测美联储将在未来12个月内降息至少4次 [1][4] - 投资者要求更高资本支出(9个月高点)而非更强资产负债表(自2022年2月以来最低) [2][27][29] - 最大尾部风险是第二轮通胀浪潮(26%) 自2022年8月以来最多人预计债券收益率将上升 [2][31][33] 资产配置 - 全球股票超配达7个月高点 尽管创纪录的58%认为股票被高估 [3][45][47] - 投资者削减新兴市场和欧盟股票多头 回补美国空头 增加科技股(自2024年7月以来最高)、银行股(6个月高点)、医疗保健股(自2021年12月以来最大涨幅)的多头 [3] - 能源股空头增加 大型股对小盘股多头的削减为自2023年12月以来最大 [3] - 黄金配置仍低至2.4%的资产管理规模 [3][62][64] 逆向交易机会 - 逆向多头交易：债券、英国股票(有记录以来第二大配置降幅)、REITs(自2024年8月以来最大低配)、能源股 [4] - 逆向空头交易：华丽七股(调查中最拥挤交易)、银行股、医疗保健股 [4][42][44] 宏观经济预期 - 增长预期创2024年10月以来最大跃升 净16%预计全球经济将走弱(较8月净-41%改善25个百分点) [2][25][26] - 77%的投资者预计"滞胀"(低于趋势增长与高于趋势通胀) 仅9%预计"繁荣" [99][101] 行业配置变化 - 9月增配股票、医疗保健、电信和消费 discretionary [75][77] - 减配英国股票、公用事业、能源以及欧盟/新兴市场股票 [75][77] - 绝对配置最超配电信、银行和科技股 最低配能源、材料和消费股 [80][81] 人工智能观点 - 48%的投资者认为AI股票不存在泡沫 73%认为AI是通缩性的 [52][56][58] - 50%的投资者认为AI已经在提高生产率 28%预计2026年后才会显现效果 [54][55][59] 加密货币配置 - 67%的投资者目前加密货币配置接近0% 加权平均配置仅为0.4% [66][68] - 84%的投资者尚未开始结构性配置加密货币 [70][72] 货币与外汇 - 38%的投资者寻求增加对美元走弱的对冲 创2025年6月以来最高水平 [37][39] - 49%的投资者认为美元被高估 22%认为欧元被低估 [147][148][149]

For many Americans, retirement is imagined as a well-deserved reward — years of freedom after decades of work. But for some, the transition can feel less like a vacation and more like a loss of purpose. That's what one 67-year-old retiree shared in a recent post on Reddit's r/retirement forum. After leaving his job in July, he admitted he's already rethinking the decision. "I feel I’m just doing make-do tasks to fill in the hours and not really accomplishing anything with my life," he wrote. "Right now, ...

Bitcoin has typically performed well in a low interest rate environment, but the asset may not rise in the aftermath of a widely expected U.S. central bank interest rate slashing on Wednesday, say analysts, who believe markets have already priced in the cut.  The analysts say that traders will be looking more keenly at what Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell says in the press conference after the announcement.  "It does seem to be pretty priced in," Juan Leon, Bitwise's senior investment strategist, told D ...

市场预期与宏观环境 - 市场预期美联储将在9月降息25个基点 推动股市上涨 并可能对企业盈利产生积极影响 [1] - 降息可能推高通胀 使利率维持在美联储2%的目标利率之上 同时地缘政治事件升级 [2] - 央行持续购买黄金 投机投资者增持比特币等加密货币 反映对宏观环境的避险需求 [2] 可口可乐公司投资亮点 - 公司股价2025年上涨6.37% 虽低于标普500指数13%的涨幅 但考虑3.03%股息收益率后总回报具竞争力 [3] - 在消费品行业整体承压背景下 公司通过拓展运动饮料、茶饮和功能水等品类实现收入与盈利增长 [4] - 分析师认为降息环境有助于公司维持或上调全年业绩指引 共识目标价76.93美元高于52周均价 [5] - 瑞银集团9月11日给予80美元目标价 较共识价仍有近5%上行空间 [5] - 公司股息收益率达3.07% 年股息2.04美元 拥有连续64年增加股息记录 派息率为72.34% [3] 强生公司转型进展 - 公司剥离消费者健康业务后 专注于制药和医疗技术领域 运营更精简高效 [7][8] - 制药管线聚焦肿瘤学和免疫疗法 医疗技术业务通过战略收购提升竞争力 [8] - 2025年股价上涨约22% 受益于资金从科技板块轮动 前瞻市盈率约16倍低于历史均值 [9] - 股息收益率2.95% 年股息5.20美元 连续64年增加股息 派息率为55.61% [6][9] 普洛斯REIT投资价值 - 作为全球最大工业房地产投资信托 专注于物流和仓储地产 occupancy率随消费信心改善而稳定 [10][11] - 积极布局可持续能源存储、数据中心开发和企业运营服务等前瞻性领域 [11] - 长期租赁合约和强劲租户需求提供稳定现金流 股息收益率达3.56% 年股息4.04美元 [10][12] - 股票交易于19倍市盈率 低于历史平均水平 具物流需求驱动的增长潜力 [12] - 尽管有连续12年增息记录 但派息率高达109.49% 需关注现金流覆盖能力 [10]

US retail sales showed surprising strength during the back-to-school season – a sign that Trump’s tariffs haven’t yet cowed shoppers as the Federal Reserve weighs a decision on cutting rates.Excluding cars, retail sales rose 0.7% in August from the previous month– far above estimates of a 0.4% rise, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. Overall retail sales increased 0.6%.The upbeat report defied projections of a spending slump last month as hiring slowed and inflation picked up. Consumers have continued to ...

By Marcelo Teixeira and Nigel Hunt NEW YORK (Reuters) -Prices for coffee futures traded in the Intercontinental Exchange in New York approached an all-time high on Tuesday as the market continues to climb amid the U.S. tariffs and a dry September in Brazil, which could hurt production. Arabica coffee futures earlier rose to a session high of $4.24 per pound, a seven-month top and not far from the all-time peak of $4.29 per pound for the most liquid contract hit earlier this year. The futures fell toward ...

(Corrects Gareth Nicholson's title in paragraph 4 to chief investment officer at Nomura International Wealth Management, not chief investment officer at Nomura) By Divya Chowdhury and Mehnaz Yasmin (Reuters) - The Treasury yield curve could steepen as investors demand higher compensation for perceived fiscal and political risk amid rising pressure from the Trump administration on the U.S. Federal Reserve, bond fund managers said on Tuesday. President Donald Trump's persistent criticism of the Fed board ...

We all want a better life for our kids than what we have. Some things are beyond our control as parents, of course, but you can try to give your kids a solid financial foundation. Putting money away each month from the time they’re born could make them a millionaire by the time they retire. Read More: Here’s Why You Might Want To Invest Your Retirement Savings in a Roth 401(k) Find Out: 10 Unreliable SUVs To Stay Away From Buying How much do you need to invest from birth so that your child can retire a mi ...

For more, let's bring in Julian Emanuel. He is Evercore ISI's senior managing director and strategist there. Julian, it's great to great to see you.Um, I guess it's hard to argue with that point, right. This is a a kind of insurance or good news or normalization rate cut program from here on out if we get a full program. Um, to what degree is that enough at this point now that the market's up, you know, 35% since April.So, actually, when we think about it, there's two ways of looking at it. In the here and ...

We'll stick with the market and the appetite for IPOs here as the Fed gets set to cut rates tomorrow. Joining us now is TD Cowan President Jeffrey Solomon. Jeff, what are you seeing in the in the pipeline.>> Well, we're certainly seeing, you know, great performance. I think it's actually been pretty healthy. I think you mentioned as you mentioned Leslie earlier, you know, these IPOs are a little bit more uh I think well placaced.you haven't seen sort of this uh same kind of dynamic that we saw in 2021, whic ...