利率政策展望 - 明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利预计美联储今年还将进行两次降息 [1] - 尽管通胀高于目标，但美联储仍决定降息，以在保持劳动力市场强劲的同时调整政策 [3][5] - 卡什卡利认为当前适宜降息，但不确定需要多少次降息才能使政策回归中性水平 [19] 通胀前景与构成分析 - 美联储致力于将通胀率恢复至2%的目标，并不接受3%的通胀水平 [4] - 住房服务通胀正稳步下降，非住房服务通胀也在缓慢下降，后者与呈下降趋势的工资增长密切相关 [6][7] - 核心商品通胀在今年初曾转为负值，但因关税影响而回升，关键在于判断关税是暂时性影响还是更具持续性 [7][8] 通胀预期与美联储独立性 - 存在通胀预期上升的风险，若公众认为美联储对通胀的应对机制已改变 [4] - 美联储独立性对于锚定通胀预期和维护美元地位至关重要，两党均普遍认同其重要性并将予以保护 [9][10] - 最高法院数月前的裁决维护了美联储独立性，市场预期国家制度将继续保障美联储免受短期政治进程影响 [11] 利率传导机制与中性利率 - 降息对经济的影响并非一对一直接传导，例如短期政策利率下调可能不会导致抵押贷款利率大幅下降 [14][15] - 有观点认为中性利率已经上升，过去一年美联储降息超过100个基点，但长端利率对短期政策变动反应不大 [14][15] - 10年期国债收益率在降息后小幅上升至4.1%左右，目前市场对此水平并未表现出担忧 [17] 经济信号与市场表现 - 劳动力市场数据显示放缓迹象，如工资增长和 payroll employment，指向一个方向 [17] - 金融市场表现活跃，股市、债市情绪高涨，信用利差非常低， meme 股卷土重来，这些信号可能暗示政策并非那么紧缩 [17][18] - 存在劳动力市场信号与金融市场表现之间的脱节 [17]

Thank you, Megan Cassella. Let's bring in we've got a good guest here on all this. Former Cleveland Fed President, CNBC contributor Loretta Meester.It's good to see you. Do you see this issue about Lisa Cook as a as a real threat to Fed independence. Oh, it's I think it's definitely a threat to Fed independence because basically what they're trying to do is remove a governor on based on an accusation.So if they are successful in doing that, that means that they can remove anyone just by accusing them of doi ...

Um, I wanted to ask about inflation expectations. Um, you've said the Fed can't take the stability of inflation expectations for granted. Um, you mentioned at the short run they've gone up a little bit.I wonder if you can talk a bit a bit about that. Um, and then also at the long run, I'm wondering do you see evidence that the debate over Fed independence and the growing deficit is putting pressure on inflation expectations. So, as you as you said, um, shorter term inflation expectations have tended to resp ...

Hi, Victoria Aguida with Politico. Um, you've talked a lot about Fed independence and the importance of it um, over the years, but as as markets have questions about uh, what exactly President Trump's intentions are with the Fed, what would you point to as the things they should be watching to determine that the Fed is still making decisions based on um, you know, e the economic outlook rather than political considerations. I look it's deeply in our culture to do to do our work based on the incoming data an ...

文章核心观点 - 市场数据显示 特朗普干预美联储独立性的行动可能导致通胀和利率下降 而非上升 [1][3][6] - 经济学家分析认为 若美联储失去独立性 市场预期长期通胀将降低 因为货币印刷可能受到更严格审查 [6][7] - 债券市场对特朗普解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克的即时反应是长短期债券收益率均出现显著下跌 [3][5] 债券市场反应 - 特朗普宣布解雇美联储理事库克后 10年期债券收益率在90分钟内下跌近10个基点 接近其通常一个月的波动幅度 [5] - 同一事件导致2年期和30年期债券收益率也出现下跌 [5] - 债券收益率的即时下跌表明市场将美联储独立性的削弱解读为通胀下行信号 [3][6] 货币政策预期 - 分析指出 若美联储失去独立性 华尔街可能不再获得"自动救助" 货币印刷将受到更严格审查 [7] - 更少的货币印刷直接转化为更低的通胀 [7] - 短期债券收益率对特朗普与美联储的公开争执以及即时政策（如新关税）更为敏感 [4]

We have a lot to talk about in this trading day. So, let's get started and begin our trading day setup for you. And we head over to the CBOE and Kevin Hanks is standing by, host of Fast Market.It's Fed Day and folks are expecting 25 basis points, but I think there's a much more big picture story with this, especially today. Good morning, Nicole. Yeah, that won't be the big story unless they deviate from that. If it comes in 25 basis points, that won't be the big story.It'll be the summary of economic projec ...

美联储政策预期 - 市场普遍预期美联储将在9月会议上宣布降息25个基点 [1] - 美联储主席 Jerome Pal 的评论以及其对未来降息路径的暗示是市场关注焦点 [1] - 预计降息周期将从本次会议开始 并以每次会议降息一次的节奏进行 [3][8] 点阵图与政策指引 - 点阵图预计将暗示市场定价基本正确 为新的降息周期提供强力指引 [4][8] - 美联储内部在启动降息周期上趋于一致 预计此次会议不会出现异议投票 [10] - 美联储将传递此次降息并非一次性事件 而是新降息周期起点的信号 [8] 美联储内部动态 - 在杰克逊霍尔会议后 美联储主席的语调出现显著转变 显示出其更倾向于跟随委员会共识而非主导决策 [5][6] - 内部委员对政策路径的分歧是促成语调变化的主因 而非美联储独立性受损 [6] - 随着领导层即将更迭 现任主席预计将采取标准化的沟通方式 为权力交接铺平道路 [13] 政策重心与市场影响 - 美联储的政策重心已从抑制通胀转向关注劳动力市场状况 [14][15] - 尽管存在财政扩张和通胀高于目标水平 长期国债收益率在过去六周仍下跌约40个基点 [16][18] - 在当前点位 长端债券难以出现显著上涨 因降息周期启动后其进一步上涨空间有限 [19][20] 市场反应与投资者行为 - 符合预期的政策事件通常为市场提供继续上涨的催化剂 被视为风险资产的“绿灯” [21] - 机构投资者在此轮上涨中风险敞口不足 可能在年底业绩考核压力下增加风险配置 [22] - 在无重大风险事件的情况下 市场最可能的路径是继续震荡上行 [22]

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces intense pressure. - MarketWatch photo illustration/Getty Images, iStockphoto Surprisingly strong August retail sales released Tuesday were throwing investors a curveball a day before the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision, triggering a brief climb in Treasury yields and pushing gold GC00 past its prior record above $3,700 an ounce. Yet any signs of political pressure influencing the U.S. central bank’s decision-making process will be the main focus for inve ...

股市表现 - 标普500指数微涨不到0.1% [1] - 纳斯达克综合指数上涨约0.2% [1] - 道琼斯工业平均指数下跌超过0.1% [1] - 前一交易日标普500和纳斯达克综合指数均创下历史新高 [3] 美联储动态 - 参议院以48-47票确认Stephen Miran为美联储理事 [2] - Stephen Miran将参与本周利率政策会议的关键投票 [2] - 市场预期美联储有96%的概率降息25个基点 [5] - 市场预期美联储有4%的概率进行更大幅度降息 [5] 公司动态 - 特斯拉股价周二早盘上涨2% [4] - 特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克自2020年以来首次购买公司股票 [4] 经济数据与市场情绪 - 零售销售数据显示消费者在通胀和劳动力市场波动下保持韧性 [4] - 市场情绪受中美贸易谈判和美联储降息预期提振 [3] - 美联储降息预期源于劳动力市场放缓 [5] 重要事件前瞻 - 美联储将于周三公布利率决定 [5] - 特朗普和中国国家主席习近平预计周五讨论贸易和TikTok交易新框架 [5]

市场表现 - 美国股指期货周二攀升 道指期货基本持平 标普500指数期货微升0.1% 纳斯达克100指数期货上涨0.2% [1] - 周一交易日股票上涨 标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数均创下新高 [4] 美联储政策与人事 - 参议院以48-47票确认Stephen Miran为美联储理事 使其能及时对利率方向进行关键投票 [2] - Miran计划从其白宫顾问职位上休假而非辞职 引发对美联储独立性的质疑 [3] - 市场预期美联储将在周三宣布降息 交易员预计降息25个基点的概率为96% 大幅降息概率为4% [5] - 美国国债因美联储降息预期领先全球债券市场 [6] 经济数据与事件 - 周二将公布零售销售数据 以洞察消费者在通胀粘性和劳动力市场不稳定背景下的状况 [4] - 周五特朗普总统和中国国家主席习近平预计将讨论贸易及TikTok交易的新框架 [5] 其他市场动态 - 黄金在美联储决议临近前创下新纪录 [7]