Ah, the stock market. A bastion of rational exuberance, meticulously calculated risks, and, apparently, a perpetual state of whiplash whenever a certain former (and potentially future) President decides to weigh in. Donald J. Trump, never one to shy away from a pronouncement, has once again graced the financial world with a flurry of policy musings, tariff threats, and strategic declarations, leaving investors to decipher whether to buy, sell, or simply brace for impact. The latest round of market-moving ma ...

**联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）2025年9月会议纪要分析** 宏观经济状况 * 经济活动增长放缓 上半年GDP增速降至1.5% 低于去年的2.5%[1] * 消费支出显著放缓 但企业设备与无形资产投资加速[2] * 住房部门活动持续疲弱[2] * 失业率从低位升至4.3% 非农就业月增幅骤降至2.9万[2] * 劳动力供给下降主因移民减少和劳动参与率降低[2] * 工资增长持续放缓但仍高于通胀[3] 通胀动态 * 整体PCE通胀率2.7% 核心PCE通胀率2.9%[4] * 商品通胀回升 服务通胀继续放缓[4] * 关税政策推高短期通胀预期[4] * 长期通胀预期仍锚定在2%目标[4] * 2025年通胀预测中值为3.0% 2027年降至2.1%[4] 货币政策行动 * 降息25个基点 联邦基金利率目标区间至4%-4.25%[5] * 继续缩表计划 但规模边际减小[5][64] * 利率路径预测：2025年底3.6% 2026年底3.4% 2027年底3.1%[8] * 决策基于数据依赖模式 否认预设路径[29] 风险平衡转变 * 就业下行风险显著增加 通胀上行风险仍存[6] * 政策重心从单边抑制通胀转向双目标平衡[6][25] * 劳动力市场出现"异常平衡"——供需双双急剧放缓[13] * 边际群体（青年、少数族裔）就业难度加大[26][40] 关税影响评估 * 关税推高商品价格约0.3-0.4个百分点[45] * 价格传导慢于预期 中间商吸收大部分成本[46] * 对就业市场的影响可能大于通胀[12] 数据可靠性问题 * 就业数据大幅下修91.1万 回应率低增加噪声[36] * 基准修订显示年初就业市场弱于预期[39] * 依赖修订后数据决策 承认实时数据局限性[37] 结构性挑战 * 全国性住房短缺问题超出货币政策范围[61] * 人工智能可能影响劳动力需求 但程度不确定[44] * 消费者信贷质量恶化 FICO评分降幅为2009年来最大[66] 政策沟通与独立性 * 强调美联储决策仅基于经济数据[34] * 否认政治因素影响 回应关于官员双重角色的质疑[10][48] * 点阵图分歧反映政策两难困境[30][52] * 公众信任度挑战 承诺专注法定目标[49] 前瞻指引 * 未来决策取决于三项关键因素：数据表现、前景演变、风险平衡[6] * 不排除进一步降息 但否认需要大幅调整[15] * 强调政策灵活性 可应对各种经济情景[6]

Let's bring in now a former Fed officials take. That is Richard Clar, a former Fed chair and global economic adviser at PIMCO. Richard, kind of a dealer's choice.You got the actual Fed decision everybody expected. You got Myron calling for a half percentage point cut. He's kind of way out there.No desense, the neutral rate. What do you think is the most important thing here. Well, I think there was some risk management here along two dimensions.One, the statement made reference to risk in the labor market. ...

公司业绩影响 - 联邦快递季度利润受到冲击 因特朗普总统决定终止热门直邮消费包裹的关税豁免待遇 [1] 政策变动影响 - 终止关税豁免待遇影响直接面向消费者的热门运输业务 [1]

Haverty Furniture Companies (NYSE:HVT) Conference September 17, 2025 01:00 PM ET Company ParticipantsSteven Burdette - President, CEO & DirectorConference Call ParticipantsAnthony Lebiedzinski - Senior Equity Analyst - Specialty Retail/ConsumerAnthony LebiedzinskiThank you very much for joining us at the Sidoti September 2025 Investor Conference. My name is Anthony Lebeginski, and I am the Equity Research Analyst that covers Haverty Furniture Companies, Inc., ticker symbol HVT. We are very pleased to have w ...

Your morning cup of joe just got a lot more expensive. Retail coffee prices were up almost 21% in August from the year before, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Tariffs are one of the most significant factors driving this price hike, says CNN. According to data platform Statista, the U.S. is the world's largest importer of coffee. In 2024, the U.S. imported nearly $9 billion worth of coffee beans The National Coffee Association says that 99% of coffee consumed in the U.S. isn't grown there, as ...

Tesla Inc TSLA has finally touched Indian soil. Elon Musk himself chimed in with a "Congrats!" on X as India Inc's first Model Y was delivered to a proud buyer. But behind the fanfare lies a thorny question: can Tesla crack the Indian market the way Apple Inc AAPL did with iPhones, or will sky-high tariffs and policy hurdles keep it stuck as a luxury toy for the few?Track TSLA stock here.Tesla's Roadblock: Tariffs Vs. DemandThe numbers tell the story. A Model Y imported to India carries tariffs of up to 70% ...

Lauren Petracca / Bloomberg via Getty Images The job market may be deteriorating. Key Takeaways The job market may be at greater risk of faltering than widely thought, according to a recent analysis. Economists at UBS argued that many employers are laying off workers at average or elevated rates, contrary to prevailing descriptions of the job market as having low hiring and low firing. Tariffs have damaged the job market, leading companies to hire fewer people and in some cases lay off their current ...

Ariel Investments, an investment management company, released its “Ariel Global Fund” second-quarter 2025 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. The second quarter marked a period of extremes. The stocks fell after the “Liberation Day” tariff announcement in early April and rebounded following the pause in tariff implementation. Enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI) themed stocks and robust corporate earnings results lifted global and U.S. indices to new highs. Against this back ...

The market's gearing up uh for this decision. Maybe we'll stay with this J. You want to talk over this.You can do that. Absolutely. Happy to do it.All right, let's keep looking at pictures. That's a great idea. But joining us now, and we'll get a shot of her later with her take on the market, just so you know it's really her, not someone imitating Jenny Johnson.Really is the CEO of Franklin Templeton. Has $1.6% trillion dollars in assets under management. That might be bigger than uh the UK.No, I'm kidding. ...