SYDNEY (Reuters) -Australian home prices increased at the fastest pace in a year in September, driven by rate cuts and record-low listings, property consultant Cotality said on Wednesday. National home prices increased 0.8% to a record median value of A$857,280 ($565,462) in September, marking the strongest monthly gain since October last year, according to figures from Cotality, formerly CoreLogic. For the quarter, prices were up 2.2%, compared with a 1.5% lift in the second quarter. The monthly gain w ...

U.S. stock futures fell on Tuesday following Monday’s advances. Futures of major benchmark indices were lower.The indices dropped as the possibility of a government shutdown neared, with the lawmakers having until Wednesday at 12:01 a.m. ET to reach an agreement.Meanwhile, Vice President JD Vance stated outside the White House that “I think we're headed to a shutdown because the Democrats won't do the right thing,” placing the blame on Democratic leaders for linking government funding to healthcare negotiat ...

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) made a significant six-figure investment into a U.S. Treasury Bill in mid-September, anchoring a flurry of trading activity that also saw her purchase shares in popular technology stocks and a Bitcoin ETF.The transactions, made on Sept. 11, were detailed in a financial disclosure report filed with the House of Representatives on Sept. 27, 2025.Piling On US Treasury Bills Ahead Of Rate CutsThe congresswoman's largest transaction was a purchase of a U.S. Treasury Bill value ...

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Successful business team standing together with growth financial arrow. gettySo what do 196 mostly bullish money managers with close to $500 million under management think about a stock market that continues to make new highs in one of the seasonally weakest months? A recent article noted that in 2025, the S&P 500 had hit 28 all-time highs. The number of new all-time highs in September is at a record level that goes back to 2017. That was another year when the Wall Street strategists were too pessimistic on ...

行业与公司 * 纪要涉及亚洲经济前景 包括中国 印度 日本等主要经济体[1] * 纪要由摩根士丹利亚洲经济团队撰写 团队负责人为Chetan Ahya[4] 核心观点与论据 * 投资者对亚洲增长前景持更积极看法 尤其是股票投资者 其依据是美国IT资本支出强劲以及消费保持韧性 这应能支撑亚洲出口[6] * 摩根士丹利持更谨慎观点 认为关税造成的损害即将显现且可能被低估 目前亚洲进口商品的加权平均关税已达25% 远高于年初的5%[7] * 韩国9月前20日经工作日调整后的日均出口额同比收缩10.6% 较8月5.7%的增长显著恶化 科技与非科技产品出口均陷入收缩区间[8] * 鉴于对贸易周期和中国通缩挑战的更悲观看法 以及美元走弱的预期 摩根士丹利预计亚洲将出现比市场定价更多的降息 尤其是在印度 韩国 印尼和台湾等经济体[16] * 关于中国 投资者认同宏观形势依然严峻 通缩压力持续 但市场表现可与宏观脱钩 其关注点在于微观主题而非宏观叙事[22][25] * 投资者聚焦三大主题 新兴前沿领域（如AI和先进制造） 反内卷政策可能改善部分行业定价能力 以及股息收益率相对于存款利率的吸引力推动家庭参与股市[25] * 对于可持续退出通缩 摩根士丹利认为增长模式需进行四大关键转变 包括接受较低的实际GDP增长目标 停止创造新的过剩产能 削减现有过剩产能以及提振国内消费[24] * 在印度 投资者情绪悲观 主要担忧企业收入和利润增长近期减速以及美印贸易关系的不确定性[26] * 摩根士丹利预计印度国内需求将从2025年第四季度开始复苏 驱动因素包括累计100个基点的降息（预计还有50个基点） 个人所得税削减以及商品及服务税（GST）下调[27] * 美印贸易紧张仍是关键风险 受潜在关税影响的印度对美出口仅占GDP的1.2% 但若服务出口（占印度总出口近半）受影响 则将对增长产生实质性冲击[28] * 在日本 多数投资者预期日本央行应尽早加息 而摩根士丹利的基本假设是2026年前都不会加息[29] * 不加息的理由在于 当前通胀主要由货币贬值和供应因素驱动 而非需求因素 且全球贸易放缓将对日本企业营收和利润产生不利影响 进而影响其维持当前工资增长水平的能力[30][31] * 日本国内需求复苏仍处于初期阶段 实际GDP水平仅略高于疫情前（2019年第三季度=100）[33] 其他重要内容 * 固定收益投资者与摩根士丹利对中国宏观疲弱的看法一致 辩论围绕通胀前景和反内卷政策对通缩的影响[22] * 中国政策制定者倾向于通过投资刺激增长 但因财政收入的GDP占比已因通缩压力下降约4个百分点 而对实施社会福利改革提振消费持谨慎态度[23] * 摩根士丹利中国经济学团队预计还将有15个基点的政策利率下调[25] * 摩根士丹利外汇策略师指出 印度卢比的实际有效汇率（REER）低于其10年平均值的1个标准差区间[28] * 若日本央行在美联储降息时激进加息 将导致货币大幅升值 影响利润并削弱企业维持工资增长的能力[31]

Tariffs, tight credit weigh on hiring plans while some channels for rate relief are clogged. ...

Markets often rally in anticipation of rate cuts but then decline when those cuts are implemented. ...

It's time now for the big picture. Let's welcome in Colin Martin, director and fixed income strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research. Very good morning to you, Colin.Happy Friday. So, no surprises there from the PCE data. Does that set us up for two more cuts.>> Uh, we're not sure just yet. You know, if we look at this morning's release, no surprises, I think, is a good thing. We're looking to make sure we're not seeing any reaceleration or significant reaceleration in inflation right now.So even th ...

All right, I'm very pleased to say we are joined by Rebecca Walsa, president Walsa Wealth Management, and she's joining me around the desk here on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Thank you so much for your time. Thanks for having me. Happy Friday. Happy Friday. And a happy Friday for the markets. Yes, it's a happy Friday for the market. Yes. Yes. Okay. So, uh we've got some green across the screen off the back of what was a not surprising PCE report. Does that set us up for two cuts then? I think ...