报告行业投资评级 未提及相关内容 报告的核心观点 - 全球经济在经历数年负面冲击后趋于稳定，2024年增长预计达2.6%，2025 - 2026年微升至2.7%，但前景仍不乐观，增长低于2010 - 2019年平均水平 [46] - 新兴市场和发展中经济体（EMDEs）增长预计从2023年的4.2%降至2024 - 2025年的4%，低收入国家（LICs）增长有望改善但仍面临挑战 [46] - 全球通胀预计放缓但速度慢于预期，2024年平均为3.5%，央行在货币政策宽松方面将保持谨慎 [46] - 风险虽有所平衡但仍偏向下行，包括地缘政治紧张、贸易碎片化、通胀持续和气候相关灾害等，需全球和国家层面政策努力应对 [47] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 第一章 全球展望 - 全球经济在2024年初有所企稳，增长略快于预期，主要因美国经济持续稳健扩张，但全球利率下降幅度因通胀压力而减小 [49] - 全球贸易增长在货物贸易带动下复苏，服务贸易增长今年提供的动力减弱，贸易前景仍不乐观，受贸易限制措施和政策不确定性影响 [50] - 大宗商品价格自去年底以来上涨，预计今年油价略高于去年，能源价格略降，金属价格变化不大，粮食价格将小幅下降 [51][56] - 全球通胀持续缓解但速度慢于预期，核心通胀在许多经济体中仍居高不下，预计到2026年底全球通胀将稳定在2.8% [56] - 全球金融条件今年有所宽松，股市上涨，但约40%的EMDEs仍易受债务压力影响，财政政策预计将恢复紧缩 [56][60] - 全球增长预计2024年保持在2.6%，2025 - 2026年升至2.7%，但仍低于2010 - 2019年平均水平，人均收入增长缓慢，近半数EMDEs在2020 - 2024年相对发达经济体落后 [61][63] - 风险虽有所平衡但仍偏向下行，包括地缘政治紧张、贸易碎片化、通胀持续和气候相关灾害等，政策制定者面临诸多挑战，需全球和国家层面政策努力 [64][68] 第二章 区域展望 未提及相关内容 第三章 利用公共投资的好处 未提及相关内容 第四章 小岛屿国家的财政挑战：抵御风暴，重建韧性 未提及相关内容

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