人形机器人重磅更新：特斯拉 optimus 未来三年出货量年均 10 倍增长指引下，产业路径与投资机遇展望 20250109 摘要 Q&A 近年来机器人产业链供给侧发生了哪些重要变化？ 近年来，机器人产业链供给侧发生了两个重要变化。首先是政策层面，全球尤其 是中美两国对机器人的重视力度显著提升，这体现在顶层设计和政策支持上。其 次，一些潜在的重磅玩家持续布局，带来了新一轮产业发展的热潮。这些因素共 同推动了机器人行业的快速发展。 对于未来机器人行业的发展趋势有何看法？ 我们认为，未来机器人行业将围绕海外和国产龙头双主线开展布局。在政策、技 术和量产节奏方面，将会有高频的催化因素推动行业发展。特斯拉等公司的新品 • 全球，特别是中美两国对机器人产业的政策支持力度显著提升，为行业发 展创造了有利环境。 • 特斯拉 Optimus 机器人技术更新迅速，自由度提升、本体减重、软硬件耦 合及智能化水平均有显著进步，但量产面临挑战。 • Optimus 机器人量产的关键前瞻指标包括内部训练效果、关键部件迭代进 展和供应链建设节奏，目前电机、减速器等部件性能及供应链建设仍需提 升。 • 特斯拉与供应商采用框架合同分批供货模 ...

龙姬下一代龙头是谁大家现在也不好说所以其实你去看光复的他的主任的公司的龙头是在每年可能经过一波周期都是在变化的但是理念不一样理念这么多年下来其实一直都是宁德占据了龙头地位 这样其实对于设备公司来说有好有坏好处就是你可以跟最大的只要你但凡进了龙头的供应链体系或者设备商体系你就可以保持相对来说还不错的份额然后能跟下游的客户能形成不错的反馈坏处其实就是你跟老大做生意你的溢价权可能相对来说并不是特别高 那么我们从过去各家的这个理念设备公司的一个经营情况来看的话呢确实过去的一到两年内呢大家的这个经营状况也是受到了比较大的一个影响因为确实有这么几个特点嘛一个是因为整体的这个行业的紧急度确实不高就是主业公司也在承受比较大的压力所以整体的这个设备的一个验收速度其实是有所放缓的那么从这个验收速度放缓所带来了一个比较大的影响 就是他的应收账款的余额会越来越大应收账款的放缓或者说是你回款的放缓就会带来这个余额的变大那余额变大以后呢因为现在大家的这个性减值损失或者是减值记题其实都是按照会计准则记题一定的比例比如说一年以内的提3%两年以内的提5%然后三年以内的提10% 所以随着你的应收账款一个是账铃的变长还有一个就是你余额的变大所以最 ...

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6 January 2025 Asian Industrial Technology Global Automation: 2025 Outlook -- Acceleration and inflection Jay Huang, Ph.D. +852 2918 5746 jay.huang@bernsteinsg.com Dien Wang, Ph.D. +852 2918 5743 dien.wang@bernsteinsg.com Weibin Liang, Ph.D. +852 2918 5242 weibin.liang@bernsteinsg.com FA demand has turned the corner, albeit only barely (Exhibit 4 to Exhibit 6). FA stocks have not priced in an upcycle (Exhibit 1). In 2025, we expect growth to accelerate from 1H, margin to expand in 2H, and strong stock perfo ...

January 6, 2025 05:02 AM GMT Multi-Industry | North America 2025 Outlook: More Similar Than Different See a return to positive revisions in 2025 behind sustained capex strength & tariff tailwinds. We maintain an Attractive view on US Industrials into 2025. The core pillars of the "Back to GDP +3" thesis from our early September launch have only strengthened — namely stronger & more durable growth behind Improved ROI on Efficiency + US Reshoring. Evolving geopolitics + a Trump presidency signals rising prote ...

V i e w p o i n t | 06 Jan 2025 10:43:18 ET │ 74 pages Pan-Asia Internet 2025 Outlook: Quality Profit, Moderated Competition & AI Impact CITI'S TAKE Global internet sector performance varied in 2024: India outperformed with +73.7%, SEA +35.3%, Japan +35.0% and the US +33.8%, while China and Korea underperformed at +15.6% and -11.4% (vs. S&P 500 +23.3%, Nikkei +19.2%, HSI +17.7%, Nifty 50 +8.8% and KOSPI -9.6%). Geopolitical tension and changes to tariff and regulatory policy could continue affecting investo ...

V i e w p o i n t | 06 Jan 2025 05:53:27 ET │ 48 pages China Healthcare 2025 Outlook: New Wallet Opening Up – Transformation into Multi- Payer System CITI'S TAKE 2025 marks the beginning of the most positive structural change in China healthcare – the first time the system is ready (in terms of technical requirements & regulations) to involve commercial insurance as significant payers - we expect potential launch of significant national policies in 1Q25. We recommend buying direct beneficiaries of reform: p ...

Global Research ab 6 January 2025 US Equity Strategy - Large Cap Core Large Cap Core Manager Performance - January 2025 Manager Performance vs. S&P 500 Large Cap Core managers trailed the S&P 500 by -2.8% in 2024 (22.2% vs. 25.0%), net of fees. During 4Q, managers lagged by -0.7%, with the underperformance taking place primarily in December. Sector vs. Stock Impacts on Manager Performance 2024: Sector decisions added +1.0% to performance in 2024. An overweight position in Financials and Industrials added 1. ...

ab 6 January 2025 Global Research US Equity Strategy Roadmap - January 2025 Stocks Deliver Another Strong Year The S&P 500 returned 25.0% in 2024, 70.1% since October 2022 lows. Big 6 TECH+ stocks once again provided an outsized contribution to this success, delivering 47.5% and 145.4%. Excluding these 6 outperformers, the market returned 16.0% and 48.3%. Small Caps lagged (11.5% and 36.5%) relative to Large, the result of weaker earnings. EAFE did particularly poorly (4.3% and 47.0%) when measured in US$. ...

ab 6 January 2025 Factor Impacts on Manager Performance 2024: Funds with a greater focus on Price Momentum and ROE outperformed by 5.7% and 3.8% during 2024 when compared with less exposed funds. 4Q24: Managers with an emphasis on stocks with high Beta to the Market outperformed their less exposed peers by 1.7% during 4Q. Global Research US Equity Strategy - Large Cap Value Large Cap Value Manager Performance - January 2025 Manager Performance vs. Russell 1000 Value Large Cap Value managers trailed the Russ ...