The stock market set new highs last week as measures of the economy, like job creation, continued to cool.Some charts from September's research notes, news articles, and blogs caught my eye. Instead of publishing a series of newsletters, I figured I'd do a lightning round here.The stock market is not the economyThe U.S. stock market and the U.S. economy are closely intertwined. Yet the makeup of earnings per share (EPS), which drives stock prices, differs in several key ways from the makeup of GDP.From Well ...

How much of the market's next move is centered around a considerable cut from the Fed. Let's ask Ed Yardenni. He is the president of Yardeni Research with me here at Post 9.Welcome back. Thank you very much. Is that what this really is about you think like 50 basis points is now what the market thinks is going to happen.I think it's partly that, but I think what uh what the market knows for sure is that earnings were much better than expected in the first quarter and in the second quarter despite all the tu ...

Markets are currently pricing in a Goldilocks scenario. Investors believe tariffs will not compress corporate margins, inflation is contained, labor markets will soften just enough to allow rate cuts without triggering a recession, and AI will drive an acceleration in productivity. As the Reddit crowd would say, "stonks to the moon.†Content continues below advertisement We think that perfect outcome is a low-probability scenario and that the market is too optimistic that earnings growth will remain strong ...

Deutsche Bank upping its target from 6550 to 7,000. That's back to its original forecast from the beginning of the year and that is now the second highest target on the street. Here with us with his call is Binky Chada, chief global strategist at Deutsch uh Deutsche Bank.Good to see you Binky. Good to see you Mike. So your the path of your target somewhat reflects the way the market has experienced this year, right.I mean it's a a major scare. We needed to re-evaluate a lot of things. tariffs, the economy, ...

try to put together, Phil, uh what 23rd record high for the S&P this year. What are are you thinking about valuations more or is it more about the the potential that names like Oracle are handing us. Yeah, and I think a lot of it has to do, Carl, with the fact that a lot of the things that people were worried about this year that may have kept valuations lower are kind of fading away a little bit here.So, last December 18th, we were here, Federal Reserve told us that they would cut rates twice in 2025. Nine ...

财务表现 - 公司2025财年第四季度及全年业绩显示报告收入增长7% 收益增长15% [5] - 增长动力来自烈酒业务持续获得市场份额以及即饮饮料(RTD)业务的快速扩张 [5] - 这标志着公司连续第三年实现强劲业绩 [5] 管理层介绍 - 公司总裁兼首席执行官Nicolas Krantz和副总裁兼首席财务官Juan Alonso出席了业绩电话会议 [2][4] - 会议讨论了2025财年第四季度及全年截至2025年6月30日的财务业绩 [1][4]

公司业绩预期 - 公司预计于2025年8月25日市场收盘后发布2025财年第三季度财报 [1] - 公司过去四个季度平均盈利超出预期11.87% [1] - 第三季度销售额共识预期为11.1亿美元，同比增长12.2% [4][7] - 第三季度每股收益共识预期为1.12美元，同比增长15.5% [5] 飞行支持业务单元表现 - 所有产品线销售量增长推动收入上升，特别是售后部件和分销业务及Wencor业务表现突出 [2] - 该部门收入共识预期为7.806亿美元，较去年同期增长14.5% [2][7] 电子科技业务单元表现 - 航天、电子和航空产品销售量增长带动收入提升 [3] - 该部门收入共识预期为3.469亿美元，较去年同期增长7.7% [3][7] 盈利驱动因素 - 销售增长预期和毛利率提升共同推动盈利改善 [1][5] - 除电子科技部门的国防和医疗产品外，大多数产品线毛利率均有所提高 [5] 同业公司近期表现 - RTX公司2025年第二季度调整后每股收益1.56美元，超出预期7.6%，同比增长10.6% [9] - RTX公司第二季度销售额215.8亿美元，超出预期5.1%，同比增长9.4% [9] - 洛克希德·马丁第二季度调整后每股收益7.29美元，超出预期12.3%，同比增长2.5% [10] - 洛克希德·马丁第二季度销售额181.6亿美元，较预期低2.2%，同比增长0.2% [10] - 诺斯罗普·格鲁曼第二季度调整后每股收益7.11美元，超出预期6% [11] - 诺斯罗普·格鲁曼第二季度销售额103.5亿美元，超出预期2.9%，同比增长1.3% [11]

核心观点 - 成长型股票因财务增长高于平均水平而吸引投资者 但通常伴随较高风险和波动性 [1] - 公司凭借Zacks增长风格评分和Zacks排名成为优质成长股选择 [2][11] - 公司当前具有优异收益增长 现金流增长和盈利预测上调三大关键优势 [3][10] 收益增长表现 - 收益增长是投资者关注的核心指标 双位数增长通常预示强劲前景 [4] - 公司历史每股收益增长率为11.2% 但今年预期增长20.7% [5] - 公司预期收益增长率超越行业平均的17.7% [5] 现金流增长表现 - 现金流增长对成长型公司尤为重要 支持新项目开展而无需外部融资 [6] - 公司当前现金流同比增长35.2% 远高于同业平均的2.3% [6] - 公司过去3-5年化现金流增长率达10.6% 显著高于行业4.4%的平均水平 [7] 盈利预测调整 - 盈利预测上调趋势与短期股价走势存在强相关性 [8] - 公司本年度盈利预测在过去一个月获上调 Zacks共识预期上升3.3% [9] - 盈利预测调整使公司获得Zacks第2级排名（买入） [10] 综合评级表现 - 公司同时具备A级增长评分和Zacks第2级排名 [2][10] - 该组合表明公司对成长型投资者而言是潜在优异表现标的 [11]

投资策略 - 投资者偏好通过股票、债券、ETF等证券获取高回报，而收益型投资者更关注流动性投资产生的持续现金流 [1] - 现金流来源包括债券利息、其他投资收益及股息，股息作为公司盈利分配给股东的部分常以股息收益率衡量 [2] - 学术研究表明股息在长期回报中占比显著，许多情况下贡献超过总回报的三分之一 [2] 公司财务表现 - Norwood Financial Corp (NWFL) 今年股价下跌7.26%，当前股息为每股0.31美元，股息收益率达4.91%，显著高于行业均值2.69%和标普500的1.5% [3] - 公司年度股息1.24美元，较去年增长3.3%，过去5年股息年均增长4.67%，累计上调股息5次 [4] - 当前派息率为57%，即过去12个月EPS的57%用于分红，未来股息增长取决于盈利增长和派息率 [4] 盈利预期与投资价值 - 2025年Zacks一致预期EPS为2.68美元，预计同比增幅达38.86% [5] - 公司兼具高股息特性（收益率4.91%）和Zacks 1（强力买入）评级，在利率上升周期中提供防御性投资机会 [6] 行业对比 - 银行业-东北地区平均股息收益率为2.69%，标普500整体为1.5%，公司4.91%的收益率显著领先 [3] - 成熟大型企业通常更可能稳定分红，高增长企业或科技初创公司较少提供股息 [6]

Key Takeaways Tutor Perini Corp. (TPC) recently beat on earnings and raised full year guidance as it has a record construction backlog. This Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) is expected to grow revenue by 20.6% this year. Tutor Perini is a civil, building and specialty construction company offering general contracting and design- build services to private clients and public agencies worldwide. It specializes in executing large, complex projects. Tutor Perini has a market cap of $3 billion. Tutor Perini Beats and ...