投资策略 - 动量投资策略的核心是“买高卖更高”而非传统的“低买高卖”旨在以更短时间获取更高收益 [1] - 仅关注传统动量参数存在风险因股票可能在增长潜力无法支撑高估值时失去上涨动力 [2] - 一种更安全的策略是投资于近期出现价格动量且估值合理的廉价股票可通过特定筛选模型识别 [3] 公司分析：Norsk Hydro ASA (NHYDY) - 公司股票在过去四周价格上涨6[8]%反映市场关注度提升 [4] - 股票展现出持续动量过去12周涨幅达20[5]%且当前贝塔值为1[48]表明其价格波动幅度比市场高48% [5] - 公司拥有B级动量评分及Zacks排名第2级（买入）评级盈利预测上调趋势强劲 [6][7] - 公司估值具吸引力按市销率计算目前交易价格仅为销售额的0[67]倍即投资者为每美元销售额支付67美分 [7] - 结合强劲动量和合理估值公司股票被认为具备持续快速上涨的空间 [8] 筛选工具 - “快速动量廉价股”筛选模型可识别同时具备价格动量和估值吸引力的股票除NHYDY外还有其他合格标的 [8] - Zacks提供超过45种专业筛选策略可根据个人投资风格选择以超越市场表现 [9] - 策略的历史回测对确保其有效性至关重要可通过专业工具进行验证 [10]

铝关税政策与影响 - 特朗普政府对铝征收的关税政策受到批评，被指会扼杀美国工厂就业机会，并对使用铝进行生产的公司（包括回收商）造成高昂成本 [1] - 政策反驳观点认为，关税已筹集巨额资金，并且包含促进增长的激励措施，如资本支出繁荣和工厂投资复苏 [2] - 政策旨在鼓励国内铝生产回流，并结合丰富的能源、低监管和低公司税率等优势 [5] 工业与制造业投资 - 过去四年左右工业生产总值没有增长，存在恢复实体建设的需求 [4] - 政策激励措施包括100%即时费用化等折旧政策，可能鼓励新建铝工厂和其他未来技术产业（如数据中心结构）的投资 [3][4][5] - 股票市场普遍上涨，包括工业类公司，这被视为未来的积极信号 [6] 宏观经济与美联储政策 - 当前月度非农就业数据为29,000，表明经济状况不如预期强劲 [7] - 此前美联储降息时，非农就业数据为116,000，有观点认为美联储应进行更大规模的利率调整（如降息50个基点） [7][8] - 美联储似乎致力于进一步降息，强劲的基本面支持这一做法，并且可能在保持经济增长的同时抑制通胀 [8] 房地产市场与利率 - 住房市场目前是经济中最薄弱的部分，住房可负担性低 [9][10][11] - 高企的抵押贷款利率是主要原因，市场期望利率能降至6%或以下 [10] - 金融市场（尤其是股票市场）已预期未来利率将下降，这对房地产市场是积极信号 [10]

投资策略 - 动量投资策略核心为买入高价并期待以更高价卖出 与传统的低买高卖策略相反 [1] - 该策略关注近期出现价格动量的廉价股票 结合Zacks动量风格评分筛选具吸引力定价的快速动量股 [2] - 策略需避免仅依赖传统动量参数 因估值过高且增长潜力不足时股票可能失去动量 [1] 凯撒铝业动量表现 - 过去四周股价上涨3.1% 反映投资者兴趣提升 [3] - 过去12周股价累计上涨0.3% 显示持续动量特征 [4] - 贝塔值达1.54 表明股价波动幅度较市场高54% [4] 评级与估值 - 获得B级动量评分 显示当前为进场最佳时机 [5] - 获Zacks买入评级（第2级） 因盈利预期修正呈上升趋势 [6] - 市销率为0.40倍 相当于每美元销售额仅需支付40美分 估值处于合理区间 [6] 筛选方法论 - Zacks溢价筛选系统提供超过45种策略模板 用于超越市场表现 [8] - 研究向导工具可回测策略有效性 并加载成功选股策略 [9]

Ah, the stock market. A bastion of rational exuberance, meticulously calculated risks, and, apparently, a perpetual state of whiplash whenever a certain former (and potentially future) President decides to weigh in. Donald J. Trump, never one to shy away from a pronouncement, has once again graced the financial world with a flurry of policy musings, tariff threats, and strategic declarations, leaving investors to decipher whether to buy, sell, or simply brace for impact. The latest round of market-moving ma ...

核心观点 - 嘉年华邮轮、Elbit Systems和Century Aluminum三家公司因盈利预期提升成为值得关注的投资标的 其中两只股票已进入买入区间 [1] 盈利预期变化 - 嘉年华邮轮(CCL)获分析师上调盈利预期 被列入" Rising Profit Estimates"筛选名单 [1] - Elbit Systems(ELBT)作为国防承包商获得盈利预期上调 [1] - Century Aluminum(CENX)作为大宗商品生产商获得盈利预期上调 [1] 技术指标表现 - Century Aluminum相对强度评级(RS Rating)在9月14日达到精英级90以上水平 [2] 市场动态与合约信息 - Elbit Systems因财报表现和获得16.4亿美元国防合同实现股价突破 [4]

核心观点 - 世纪铝业盈利预期持续改善 推动股价短期强劲上涨且趋势可能延续 [1] - 分析师一致上调盈利预测 共识预期显著提升 反映市场乐观情绪 [3] - 公司获Zacks最高评级"强力买入" 历史数据显示该评级组合年均回报率达25% [3][8] 盈利预期修正 - 当前季度每股收益预期0.88美元 同比增长91.3% [6] - 全年每股收益预期2.30美元 同比下降30.1% [7] - 过去30天内季度共识预期上调8.64% 全年预期亦呈积极修正趋势 [6][7] 市场表现与评级 - 过去四周股价上涨12.2% 短期价格动能强劲 [9] - 获Zacks Rank 1评级 该评级股票历史表现显著超越标普500指数 [8] - 盈利修正趋势与短期股价变动存在强相关性 支撑投资逻辑 [2]

价格趋势表现 - 世纪铝业股价在12周内大幅上涨54.3% 反映投资者持续看好潜在上涨空间 [4] - 过去四周股价进一步上涨12.2% 表明上涨趋势仍在延续 [5] - 当前股价处于52周高-低区间105.7%位置 预示可能突破前期高点 [5] 基本面评级 - 获得Zacks排名第一（强烈买入） 位列4000多只股票中前5% 该评级基于盈利预测修正和每股收益惊喜趋势 [6] - Zacks排名第一股票自1988年以来年均回报率达25% 具有外部审计验证的优秀业绩记录 [7] - 平均经纪商建议评级为强烈买入 显示机构看好其短期价格表现 [7] 筛选方法论 - 通过"近期价格强势"筛选模型 识别具有基本面支撑且处于52周区间上部的股票 [3] - 该筛选模型属于Zacks超过45个专业策略屏幕之一 专为超越市场表现设计 [8] - 建议使用研究向导工具进行策略回测 验证选股策略的历史盈利能力 [9]

[角色] 你是一名拥有10年投资银行从业经验的资深研究分析师，专门负责上市公司、行业研究。你擅长解读公司财报、行业动态、宏观市场，发现潜在的投资机会和风险。 [任务] 你需要仔细研读一份上市公司或者行业研究的电话会议记录，请阅读全文，一步一步思考，总结全文列出关键要点，不要错过任何信息，包括： * 纪要涉及的行业或者公司 * 纪要提到的核心观点和论据 * 其他重要但是可能被忽略的内容 如果没有相关内容，请跳过这一部分，进行其他的部分。 总结时要全面、详细、尽可能覆盖全部的内容、不遗漏重点,并根据上述方面对内容进行分组。 要引用原文数字数据和百分比变化,注意单位换算(billion=十亿,million=百万,thousand=千)。 [注意事项] 1) 使用中文,不要出现句号 2) 采用markdown格式 3) 不使用第一人称,以"公司"、"行业"代替 4) 只输出关于公司和行业的内容 5) 在每一个关键点后用[序号]形式引用原文档id 6) 一个[序号]只应该包含一个数字，不能包含多个，如果多个就用[序号][序号]分开写，不要写成 [序号-序号] 7) 每个关键要点后边的 [序号] 不要超过 3 个 Content: --------- <doc id='1'>China Materials 2025 On-ground Demand Monitor Series 137 – Aluminum Inventory and Consumption CITI'S TAKE In this series of notes, we aim to track and analyze high-frequency on- ground demand trends in China – market expectation on demand recovery has been largely cautious. In this note, we enclose weekly data from Mysteel, a consultant, on China aluminum ingot and billet production, inventory, and apparent consumption data during the week of 4th to 10th Sep 2025. Latest sector pecking order: copper > battery > gold > aluminum > cement > steel> lithium > thermal coal.</doc> <doc id='2'>Production – According to Mysteel, from 4th to 10th Sep 2025, China total aluminum production was 851kt, flat WoW, +2% YoY, and +2% YoY on the lunar calendar, and aluminum billet production was 361kt, flat WoW, +6% YoY and +6% YoY on the lunar calendar. The calendar year YTD China aluminum production was 31.1mnt, +2.9% YoY, and aluminum billet production was 12.6mnt, +5.7% YoY.</doc> <doc id='3'>Inventory – According to Mysteel, China aluminum ingot + billet total inventory stood at 914kt on 11th Sep, -1% WoW, -5% YoY, and -7% YoY on the lunar calendar, of which total social/producers' inventory stood at 759/155kt, -1%/-2% WoW, -11%/+43% YoY, and -11%/+20% YoY on the lunar calendar. For aluminum ingot, total inventory was 686kt on 11th Sep, -1% WoW, -11% YoY, and -10% YoY on the lunar calendar. For aluminum billet, total inventory was 228kt on 11th Sep, -2% WoW, +21% YoY, and +6% YoY on the lunar calendar.</doc> <doc id='4'>Apparent consumption – Based on our calculations, during the week of 4th to 10th Sep 2025, China overall aluminum apparent consumption was 895kt, +3% WoW, -1% YoY, and +9% YoY on the lunar calendar. China aluminum ingot/billet apparent consumption was 911kt/345kt, respectively, +2%/+3% WoW, -2%/+8% YoY, and +5%/+18% YoY on the lunar calendar. The calendar year YTD China overall aluminum apparent consumption was 32.1mnt, +4.6% YoY, and China aluminum ingot/billet apparent consumption was +4.1%/+7.3% YoY.</doc> <doc id='5'>Takeaways – We believe the aluminum ingot + billet inventory data is more representative to calculate overall aluminum demand as it includes the change in more types of aluminum inventory. During the week of 4th to 10th Sep 2025, total aluminum inventory decreased WoW. The inventory level was lower than the same period in 2021-22 and 2024, but higher than 2023 on lunar calendar. Total aluminum See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Certain products (not inconsistent with the author's published research) are available only on Citi's portals.</doc> <doc id='6'>Jack Shang, CFAAC +852-2501-2441 jack.shang@citi.com Anna Wang +852-2501-2739 anna.d.wang@citi.com Jimmy Feng +852-2501-7588 jimmy.feng@citi.com Cynthia Wu +852-2868-7813 cynthia.d.wu@citi.com</doc> <doc id='7'>apparent consumption during the week was increased WoW and the apparent consumption level is higher than the same period in 2022-24 on lunar calendar.</doc> <doc id='8'>Figure 1. China Aluminum billet+ingot total inventory CNY (kt)</doc> <doc id='9'>© 2025 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Note: On x-axis, CNY stands for Chinese New Year and the data is by weeks Source: Citi Research, mysteel Figure 3. China Aluminum billet social + producers' inventory CNY (kt)</doc> <doc id='10'>© 2025 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Note: On x-axis, CNY stands for Chinese New Year and the data is by weeks Source: Citi Research, mysteel © 2025 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Note:OIn x-axis, CNY stands for Chinese New Year and the data is by weeks Source: Citi Research, mysteel Figure 2. China Aluminum total apparent consumption CNY (kt)</doc> <doc id='11'>© 2025 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Note: On x-axis, CNY stands for Chinese New Year and the data is by weeks Source: Citi Research, mysteel Figure 4. China Aluminum billet apparent consumption CNY (kt)</doc> <doc id='12'>© 2025 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Note: On x-axis, CNY stands for Chinese New Year and the data is by weeks Source: Citi Research, mysteel Figure 6. China Aluminum ingot apparent consumption CNY (kt)</doc> <doc id='13'>© 2025 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Note: On x-axis, CNY stands for Chinese New Year and the data is by weeks Source: Citi Research, mysteel Figure 5. China Aluminum Social + Producers' ingot inventory CNY (kt)</doc> <doc id='14'>If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the details of the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside the US +1-210-677-3788 Appendix A-1 ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analysts primarily responsible for the preparation and content of this research report are either (i) designated by "AC" in the author block or (ii) listed in bold alongside content which is attributable to that analyst. If multiple AC analysts are designated in the author block, each analyst is certifying with respect to the entire research report other than (a) content attributable to another AC certifying analyst listed in bold alongside the content and (b) views expressed solely with respect to a specific issuer which are attributable to another AC certifying analyst identified in the price charts or rating history tables for that issuer shown below. Each of these analysts certify, with respect to the sections of the report for which they are responsible: (1) that the views expressed therein accurately reflect their personal views about each issuer and security referenced and were prepared in an independent manner, including with respect to Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and its affiliates; and (2) no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by that research analyst in this report.</doc> <doc id='15'>IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES Analysts' compensation is determined by Citi Research management and Citigroup's senior management and is based upon activities and services intended to benefit the investor clients of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and its affiliates (the "Firm"). Compensation is not linked to specific transactions or recommendations. Like all Firm employees, analysts receive compensation that is impacted by overall Firm profitability which includes investment banking, sales and trading, and principal trading revenues. One factor in equity research analyst compensation is arranging corporate access events between institutional clients and the management teams of covered companies. Typically, company management is more likely to participate when the analyst has a positive view of the company.</doc> <doc id='16'>For financial instruments recommended in the Product in which the Firm is not a market maker, the Firm is a liquidity provider in such financial instruments (and any underlying instruments) and may act as principal in connection with transactions in such instruments. The Firm is a regular issuer of traded financial instruments linked to securities that may have been recommended in the Product. The Firm regularly trades in the securities of the issuer(s) discussed in the Product. The Firm may engage in securities transactions in a manner inconsistent with the Product and, with respect to securities covered by the Product, will buy or sell from customers on a principal basis.</doc> <doc id='17'>Unless stated otherwise neither the Research Analyst nor any member of their team has viewed the material operations of the Companies for which an investment view has been provided within the past 12 months.</doc> <doc id='18'>For important disclosures (including copies of historical disclosures) regarding the companies that are the subject of this Citi Research product ("the Product"), please contact Citi Research, 388 Greenwich Street, 6th Floor, New York, NY, 10013, Attention: Legal/Compliance [E6WYB6412478]. In addition, the same important disclosures, with the exception of the Valuation and Risk assessments and historical disclosures, are contained on the Firm's disclosure website at https://www.citivelocity.com/cvr/eppublic/citi_research_disclosures. 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If the Product references views of other analysts then please refer to the price chart or rating history table for the date/time of completion and first dissemination with respect to that view.</doc> <doc id='26'>Regulations in various jurisdictions require that where a recommendation differs from any of the author's previous recommendations concerning the same financial instrument or issuer that has been

氧化铝市场动态 - 氧化铝价格从2024年底高位回落 供应中断问题得到解决[3] - 中国第二季度关停年产能700万至1000万吨 使价格稳定在360-370美元区间[3] - 预计2025年下半年至2026年市场将持续过剩 印度尼西亚和中国新增产能将陆续投产[3] - 印度尼西亚部分冶炼产能延迟投产 可能加剧供应过剩局面[3] 铝市场状况 - 公司高管准备就铝市场情况进行说明[4] 企业沟通信息 - 公司高管感谢与会人员并开启问答环节[2]

氧化铝市场动态 - 氧化铝价格已从2024年底的高位回落 供应中断问题得到解决[3] - 中国在第二季度关闭约700万至1000万吨年产能 此举使价格稳定在360美元至370美元区间[3] - 预计氧化铝市场将在2025年下半年及2026年持续处于过剩状态[3] - 印尼和中国部分新增产能将于今年底或明年初投产[3] - 印尼部分冶炼产能出现延迟 这将进一步加剧市场过剩状况[3] 产能调整影响 - 中国产能关闭措施对稳定市场价格起到关键作用[3] - 新增产能投放时间表将直接影响未来市场供需平衡[3] - 印尼冶炼项目延期为市场带来额外供应压力[3]