Financial personality Dave Ramsey has spoken with many callers on "The Ramsey Show" who took out loans to buy livestock. Even with decades of experience, Ramsey was in disbelief when he heard that a 20-year-old got access to a $100,000 loan to buy 25 cattle. "Who gave a 20-year-old a $100,000 cow loan," Ramsey asked. The details emerged later on, but there were a few red flags that Ramsey brought up. Don't Miss: How The 20-Year-Old Got A $100,000 Loan Initially, it seems reckless to give a 20-year-old ...

Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE: TSN ) is one of the world’s largest protein companies , producing approximately 20% of the beef, pork, and chicken in the United States. It is primarily US-focused (over 80% of sales) but exports to over 100 countries. ItI am a UK-based equity enthusiast and private investor with a professional background in finance. With over a decade of experience, I aim to bring a pragmatic, valuation driven approach to equity research. My focus is on identifying and analysing underappreciated fun ...

Beef prices are at a record high in the wake of a drought that left cattle inventory at the lowest level in 70 years amid strong demand, resulting in price increases for steak and ground beef. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' consumer price index report for August showed a surge in beef prices over the past year. Ground beef prices were up 12.8% on a year-over-year basis in August, while beef roasts were up 13.6%, and steak prices were 16.6% higher. Those inflation figures are well above the 3.2% year-over- ...

Tyson Foods, Inc. (NYSE:TSN) is grappling with a multifaceted market landscape, where tight beef supplies and persistent cost inflation are squeezing margins, even as robust performance from its chicken segment provides a critical counterbalance. This dynamic highlights the company's intricate balancing act between immediate operational pressures and its long-term growth strategy. A recent analysis from Piper Sandler sheds light on this challenging environment, which is marked by supply constraints and risi ...

Greenpeace has alleged that Brazilian beef giant JBS indirectly purchased cattle raised on protected indigenous land in the Amazon rainforest. The animals were allegedly reared in the Pequizal do Naruvôtu Indigenous Territory. According to Greenpeace, between 2018 and 2025, Brazilian agribusiness entrepreneur Mauro Fernando Schaedler transferred at least 1,238 cattle from a farm overlapping with this territory to another property with no recorded irregularities. Greenpeace said this transfer was carried ...

By Peter Hobson and Tom Polansek CANBERRA/CHICAGO (Reuters) -Australian beef has replaced U.S. supply in China since President Donald Trump returned to the White House, funnelling hundreds of millions of dollars that have in previous years gone to the U.S. cattle industry into Australian pockets. U.S. shipments to China, worth around $120 million a month, collapsed after Beijing in March allowed permits to expire at hundreds of American meat facilities and as Trump unleashed a tit-for-tat tariff war. Ot ...

ab 25 September 2025 Powered by YES UBS Evidence Lab Global Research China Industrials Going global: Breakdown of China's exports (August 2025) Leveraging UBS Evidence Lab's China Export Monitor UBS's China research team has classified about 6,000 six-digit Harmonized System Code (HS Code) goods in nine industries and 112 sectors, representing more than 90% of China's overall exports in 2024. We break down China's exports by end-market and sector (> Access Dataset). Notably, exports of aluminium ore (+21975 ...

公司股息表现 - 百事公司连续53年提高股息 最近一次季度股息增加5%至每股1.4225美元 年化股息达每股5.69美元[3] - 黑山公司连续55年提高股息 最近季度股息从0.65美元增至0.676美元 年化股息达每股2.70美元[6] - 泰森食品连续12年提高股息 最近季度股息从0.49美元增至0.50美元 年化股息达每股2.00美元[9] 当前股息收益率 - 百事公司股息收益率为4.02%[3] - 黑山公司股息收益率为4.63%[6] - 泰森食品股息收益率为3.58%[9] 财务业绩表现 - 百事公司年收入达917.5亿美元 第二季度每股收益2.12美元 收入227.3亿美元 均超预期[4] - 黑山公司年收入22.4亿美元 第二季度收入4.39亿美元 低于预期4.484亿美元 每股收益0.38美元超预期0.37美元[7] 业务范围 - 百事公司全球经营饮料和方便食品业务[2] - 黑山公司在美国经营电力和天然气公用事业业务[5] - 泰森食品全球经营鸡肉、牛肉、猪肉及预制食品业务[8]

这份文件是摩根士丹利关于拉丁美洲蛋白质（肉类）行业的研究报告，而非电话会议记录。报告的核心论点是全球牛肉供应紧张，价格将持续走高，并分析了其对相关公司和行业的影响。 涉及的公司与行业 * 行业聚焦于全球蛋白质市场，特别是牛肉、鸡肉和猪肉 [1][2][4] * 报告覆盖拉丁美洲的蛋白质公司，重点提及JBS (JBS US, PPC US)、Marfrig (MRFG3 BZ) 和Minerva (BEEF3 BZ) [1][7][231] * 报告亦涉及美国、欧盟、英国、中国和巴西的蛋白质市场状况 [2][7][164] 核心观点与论据 **1 全球牛肉超级周期论题** * 报告提出“全球牛肉超级周期”论题，认为“世界上没有足够的牛肉”，供应紧张将支撑价格 [1][7] * 美国牛肉生产预计在2026年同比下降2%，可能创下十年来的最低产量水平 [2] * 欧盟和英国的牛群存栏量出现结构性下降（欧盟2025E为-3%，英国2025E为-2%），导致产量减少，需依赖进口 [10][11][16][17] **2 美国牛肉价格展望强劲** * 美国牛肉价格自2024年1月以来零售价格上涨约15% [2] * 预计2026年美国牛肉价格将同比上涨约5%，主要驱动因素为可支配收入保持韧性（预计2026年同比增长4.2%）与供应下降 [2] * 美国牛肉消费与收入增长高度相关，历史10年相关性约为90% [2][9] **3 高牛肉价格对鸡肉需求的积极影响** * 高企的牛肉价格预计将推动消费者转向相对便宜的鸡肉，从而支持鸡肉需求 [1][6] * 尽管谷物成本上涨和供应增加可能压缩鸡肉利润率，但强劲的需求将部分抵消该影响，使盈利能力维持在历史平均水平之上 [6] * 预计JBS美国鸡肉业务（PPC）2026年EBIT利润率为10.5%，虽同比下降200个基点，但仍比其历史平均水平高出约200个基点 [6] **4 欧盟/英国需求成为拉美出口商新增长点** * 欧盟和英国的需求强劲且常被市场低估，其牛肉进口需求为拉美出口商（尤其是Minerva）提供了有吸引力的机会 [7] * 英国年初至今（YTD）牛肉价格同比上涨19%，欧盟年初至今牛肉价格同比上涨7% [8][18][19] * 巴西对欧洲/英国的牛肉出口量同比大幅增长（至欧洲+89%，至英国+17%），虽然其占总出口量的比例仍较小（YTD为3.5%，高于2024年同期的2.6%） [8][10] **5 关键数据支持** * **美国市场**：8月牛肉切块价格同比上涨25%至391美元/美担，活牛价格同比上涨28%至241美元/美担，周度屠宰量同比下降11%至53.6万头 [22] * **巴西市场**：8月国内牛肉价格同比上涨31%至21.6 BRL/公斤，活牛价格同比上涨31%至307 BRL/15公斤 [22] * **巴西出口**：8月（累计4周）牛肉出口量同比增长34.7%，出口价格同比增长26.3%，出口额同比增长70.1% [146][147] 其他重要内容 **投资建议与公司偏好** * 报告观点对JBS的鸡肉业务（PPC）和拉美牛肉出口商（尤其是Minerva, BEEF3）构成利好 [1][7][231] * 摩根士丹利覆盖的多家公司存在投行业务、持有头寸或其它利益冲突，例如持有JBS和Minerva超过1%的股份 [186] **风险因素** * 美国鸡肉利润率面临谷物价格上涨的压力 [6] * 各地区进口政策、汇率波动及动物疾病（如禽流感、口蹄疫）可能影响贸易流和价格 [156][164]

核心业绩表现 - 第三季度调整后每股收益为91美分 超出市场预期的72美分 同比增长4.6% [4] - 总销售额达138.84亿美元 同比增长4% 超出市场预期的136.28亿美元 [5] - 毛利润从去年同期的8.78亿美元增长至11亿美元 增幅显著 [5] - 调整后营业利润增长2.9%至5.05亿美元 但营业利润率下降10个基点至3.6% [6] 业务板块表现 - 牛肉业务销售额增长至56.03亿美元 销量下降3.1%但平均价格上涨10% [7] - 猪肉业务销售额增至15.06亿美元 销量增长1.5%但平均价格下降1.6% [7] - 鸡肉业务销售额提升至42.2亿美元 销量增长2.4%且平均价格上涨1.1% [8] - 预制食品业务销售额达25.15亿美元 销量下降2.3%但平均价格大幅上涨5.7% [8] - 国际及其他业务销售额为5.57亿美元 销量下降0.8%且平均销售价格下降3.5% [9] 财务与现金流状况 - 期末现金及等价物为15亿美元 长期债务82亿美元 股东权益185亿美元 [10] - 前九个月经营活动产生现金流8.46亿美元 流动性资金达40亿美元 [10][11] - 2025财年资本支出预计不超过10亿美元 自由现金流预期为10-13亿美元 [11] 行业与公司展望 - 美国农业部预测2025财年国内蛋白质产量与2024财年基本持平 [13] - 牛肉业务预计营业亏损3.75-4.75亿美元 猪肉业务营业利润1.75-2亿美元 鸡肉业务营业利润13-14亿美元 [14] - 预制食品业务预计营业利润9.25-10亿美元 国际业务预期改善 [15] - 公司预计2025财年总收入增长2-3% 调整后营业利润21-23亿美元 [16] 市场表现与估值 - 过去一个月股价上涨3.2% 表现优于标普500指数 [1] - 增长评分获A级 价值评分获A级 动量评分仅C级 综合VGM评分达A级 [18] - 过去一个月市场预期下调5.35% 当前Zacks评级为3级(持有) [17][19]