CHONGQING, CHINA - SEPTEMBER 4: In this photo illustration, a smartphone shows the logo of Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL), a U.S. multinational computer technology company specializing in database software, cloud solutions, and enterprise applications, with the company's latest stock market chart seen in the background on September 4, 2025 in Chongqing, China. (Photo illustration by Cheng Xin/Getty Images)Getty Images Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) is expected to announce its earnings on Tuesday, Sep 9, 2025. Through ...

JACKSON HOLE, WYOMING - AUGUST 22: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is seen walking in Grand Teton National Park on August 22, 2025 near Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Powell spoke Friday at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. (Photo by Natalie Behring/Getty Images)Getty Images In a highly anticipated event for global markets, the U.S. Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee is set to meet on September 16-17. Current market positioning suggests a strong expectation of a 25-basis-point rate cut among a ...

股市表现 - 纳斯达克指数上涨1% 科技股领涨 [2] - 标普500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数均上涨0.8% [2] - 小盘股当日表现持平 成为唯一滞后者 [2] 就业市场数据 - 8月新增就业2.2万人 远低于预期的7.5万人 [3] - 失业率维持在4.3% 符合预期 [3] - 6月和7月数据修订显示净减少2.1万个工作岗位 [3] - 制造业就业岗位单月减少1.2万个 年内累计减少7.8万个 [8] 货币政策预期 - 美联储9月17日会议降息25个基点的概率升至99% [3] - 就业市场显著疲软为降息提供依据 [3] 通胀数据展望 - 生产者价格指数和消费者价格指数将于下周公布 [3] - 若通胀数据上升叠加就业疲软 可能引发滞胀担忧 [4] - 理想情况是通胀数据呈现停滞或下降趋势 [4] 个股表现 - Lululemon股价早盘下跌20% 因财报疲软及下调展望 [5] - 公司明确提及关税造成经营困难 [5] - 博通股价上涨7% 人工智能芯片销售增长63% [5] - 签署100亿美元协议向未具名客户供应AI芯片 [5] - 博通股价较年内低点累计上涨109% [5] 金融市场动态 - 9月19日将迎来季度性"三巫日" 可能增加市场波动性 [6] - 30年期国债收益率近期接近5%心理关口 当前回落至4.78% [9] - 黄金和白银近期显著上涨 可能反映滞胀环境担忧 [9]

Employers are still hiring but not muchGetty ImagesIn the monthly jobs report for August that the Bureau of Labor Statistics just released, the number of payroll jobs grew by just 22,000 jobs. This is well below economist expectations of an increase of 75,000, which is now considered the break-even rate to keep unemployment steady.Most sectors showed mildly contracting payrolls, and only three showed significant growth: health care (up 31,000), social assistance (up 16,000), and leisure/hospitality (up 28,0 ...

Retail activity is threatened when job creation stalls (Photo by Bob Riha, Jr./Getty Images)Getty ImagesAccording to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, for the last four years there has been more than one job available for each person unemployed in the U.S. That’s what has given labor its power to negotiate and get increased wages; employers haven’t been able to find the people they need to fill the open job.No more. This morning’s report about job creation was practically anemic.For the first time in four yea ...

BIRMINGHAM, ENGLAND - DECEMBER 13: A jewellery quarter gold dealer poses with three 1kg gold bullion bars on December 13, 2023 in Birmingham, England. Gold prices have increased since the Ukraine War but have soared to record highs since the start of the Hamas-Israel war. Other factors are the weakening US dollar and expected rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. (Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)Getty ImagesGlobal gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded their third consecutive month of inf ...

ToplineThe labor market appeared to degrade further in August, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday, the first by the agency after President Donald Trump ousted its leadership for alleged data manipulation. A jobs report, the first since Trump fired the Bureau of Labor Statistics chief, will help determine the Fed’s interest rate decision.Getty ImagesKey FactsThe unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, above economist forecasts and July’s reading of 4.2%, according to FactSet.The U ...

核心观点 - 公司股价年内上涨19%但吸引力不足 因运营表现和财务状况中等 尽管铜价走强且电气化和可再生能源趋势推动需求改善 但运营杠杆使其高度易受大宗商品波动影响 铜价轻微下跌可能显著冲击盈利 [2] 财务表现 - Q2 2025营收66亿美元同比下降5% 因实现铜价从去年峰值水平软化 [3] - 净利润9.7亿美元下降19% 调整后EBITDA为18亿美元 低于去年同期 [3] - 自由现金流降至4.5亿美元 受疲软定价和高采矿成本影响 [3] - 债务95亿美元对比现金13亿美元 下行周期中灵活性有限 [3] - 铜销售量保持相对稳定 亚洲和电动汽车供应链表现强劲 但传统建筑和基础设施出货疲软 [3] 估值水平 - 市盈率33.5倍显著超过标普500的24倍 [4] - 自由现金流倍数38.1倍高于标普500的21.4倍 [4] 增长表现 - 过去三年营收年均增长2.5%低于标普500的5.3% [5] - 近12个月销售额从250亿美元增至260亿美元增长4.6% [5] - 最近季度营收76亿美元同比增长14.5% 但低于指数6.1%的增幅 [5] 盈利能力 - 过去一年营业利润69亿美元利润率26.8% 营业现金流66亿美元利润率25.4% [6] - 净利润19亿美元利润率7.5% [6] - 营业利润率和现金流利润率高于标普500 但净利润率低于指数的12.7% [6] 财务稳健性 - 债务权益比14.4%低于标普500平均的20.3% [7] - 现金占总资产7.9%略高于指数的7.2% [7] 周期抗性 - 经济下行期表现弱于标普500 2022年通胀冲击中股价下跌51.7%对比指数25.4%跌幅 [8] - 2020年疫情期间股价下跌60.8%对比指数33.9%跌幅 [8] 综合评估 - 高估值结合弱增长和中等盈利能力 形成波动性大且缺乏吸引力的股票 [9]

公司业绩与股价表现 - 公司第二季度业绩创纪录 净收入达到20亿美元 同比增长58% [1][6] - 股价年内下跌43% 近期一周内下跌15% 当前股价为64美元 [1] - 数据中心业务展望谨慎 源于定制AI加速器订单波动 但季度波动在该市场属常见现象 [1] AI业务发展机遇 - 公司在AI市场布局始于高速互连解决方案 包括光学和电气互连技术 用于处理AI工作负载产生的大量数据 [3] - 定制化专用集成电路（ASIC）成为更大增长动力 为超大规模客户提供更高成本效益、更低功耗和更优性能 [4] - AI推理阶段发展可能更有利于公司 因为推理需要持续化、大规模的专业化能效解决方案 [4] 财务指标与估值分析 - 公司当前市盈率约为40倍历史盈利 23倍FY26预估调整后盈利 低于AMD的40倍和英伟达的38倍前瞻市盈率 [5] - FY25收入预计为57.7亿美元 共识预估增长41%至81.4亿美元 若FY27-28年保持30%年增长率 AI驱动下收入可能达到137亿美元 [6] - 调整后净利率目前为28% 随着规模扩大和固定成本吸收 预计逐步提升 若达到30% 调整后净利可能超过41亿美元 为FY25的三倍 [7] - 若盈利大幅增长且投资者给予30倍市盈率 市值可能达到约1200亿美元 为当前水平两倍以上 [8] 行业竞争与市场动态 - 微软因设计变更延迟下一代AI芯片 可能推迟对公司芯片需求 亚马逊AWS依赖公司Trainium芯片但正失去市场份额给微软Azure和谷歌云 [1] - 大型科技公司AI支出激增 亚马逊2025年资本支出预计达1050亿美元 微软、Alphabet和Meta分别预计800亿、750亿和720亿美元 大部分用于AI基础设施 [4] - 行业可能从大规模通用AI模型转向更小专业化模型 有利于提供定制化产品的利基厂商 [4]

CANADA - 2025/09/04: In this photo illustration, the Macy's Inc. logo is seen displayed on a smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images Macy’s stock (NYSE: M) has increased by 37% over the past month, yet the stock is starting to appear quite unappealing due to its poor operating performance and financial situation. Although there are signs of strength in certain consumer spending areas and improving demand trends ...