奥本海默将农用设备生产商迪尔的目标价从566美元下调至512美元，维持"跑赢大市"评级。(格隆汇) ...

Key Takeaways Deere expects fiscal 2025 net income of $4.75B-$5.25B, well below last year's $7.1B.AGCO raised 2025 sales view to $9.8B, still a 15.5% drop, with EPS seen down 35% at midpoint.AGCO shares are up 17.4% YTD versus Deere's 10.8%, and trade at a lower forward earnings multiple.Deere & Company (DE) and AGCO Corporation (AGCO) are two well-known names in the agricultural machinery industry. Both companies produce a wide range of farm equipment, from tractors, combines and sprayers, and have been st ...

核心观点 - 美国制造业、批发零售业和能源等行业因关税政策导致成本上升和不确定性增加 招聘大幅放缓并出现裁员潮 劳动力市场增长陷入停滞 [1][2][3] 行业就业数据变化 - 8月美国非农就业仅新增2.2万个岗位 招聘几乎停滞 [2] - 制造业减少1.2万个岗位 今年以来累计裁员达7.8万个 [2] - 采矿业8月减少6000个岗位 [2] - 批发零售业今年以来就业人数减少3.2万个 [2] - 石油行业自1月以来至少4000人离职 裁员速度创2021年1月以来最快纪录 [4] 企业案例与影响 - 吉他效果器制造商EarthQuaker Devices实施招聘冻结 原计划新增3-4名员工但未能执行 [1] - 工业巨头John Deere因关税损失3亿美元 预计年底损失翻倍 在伊利诺伊州和爱荷华州裁员238人 三季度净利润同比下降26% [2] - 金属制造企业Wyoming Machine采取人员离职不补策略 [3] - 雪佛龙计划裁员多达8000人 康菲石油计划裁员3250人 [4] - 时装代工厂New York Embroidery Studio计划在300人团队中进行裁员并推进自动化 [6] 政策影响与行业反应 - 关税推高钢材和设备成本 叠加原油价格下跌 对石油行业形成双重打击 [4] - 企业高管普遍认为关税政策变动快且反复无常 导致资本支出决策困难 [3][5] - 部分企业支持关税政策 认为长期有助于恢复美国本土产业 [6] 统计修正与背景 - 美国劳工统计局数据显示 截至3月的一年内实际就业岗位数量比此前统计少近100万个 [2]

在美国，那些受贸易动荡影响最深的行业已经踩下招聘"刹车"，甚至开始裁员，这导致美国劳动力市场 的增长陷入停滞。 上周最新发布的8月就业报告显示，美国经济当月仅新增2.2万个就业岗位，招聘速度放缓至涓涓细流。 制造业、批发零售业和能源业等受关税影响的商品生产部门，在近几个月经历了一波失业潮。 9月14日，这些企业高管们在接受英国《金融时报》采访时表示，特朗普总统全面的关税政策导致成本 上升，使他们难以制定扩张计划，这是裁员和招聘放缓的主要原因。 疲软的就业市场也改变了市场预期。经济学家们认为，美联储在本周会议上降息的可能性正在增加。美 联储主席鲍威尔上月曾表示，就业增长放缓可能会抵消特朗普全面关税制度带来的通胀影响。 特朗普政府：关税提振了就业 尽管企业界怨声载道，但特朗普政府仍坚持其立场。财政部长贝森特表示："每有一家John Deere，就有 一些公司告诉我们'关税帮助了我们的业务，我们正在增加资本支出和就业'。"美国政府认为，关税最 终将刺激企业将业务迁回美国，并随之带来就业激增。 制造业与能源业首当其冲 在黯淡的就业数据背后，是具体行业的困境。据美国劳工统计局（BLS）数据，制造业在8月份减少了 1.2 ...

Parkev Tatevosian, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Deere & Company. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Parkev Tatevosian is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through his link, he will earn some extra money that supports his channel. His opinions remain his own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool. ...

Key Takeaways DE faces nine quarters of volume declines; expects large U.S. ag equipment market to drop 30% in 2025.U.S. farm income to rise 40.7% in 2025, driven mainly by $30.4B increase in government payments.Crop receipts are expected to decline 2.5% this year, which does not look promising for the farm sector.Deere & Company (DE) continues to face persisting challenges in its equipment operations, experiencing nine consecutive quarters of volume declines. The Agricultural & Turf segment has been the ha ...

投资理念与方法论 - 采用基本面驱动和估值驱动的投资方法 专注于识别具有长期规模扩张潜力和巨大终值释放能力的企业 [1] - 投资分析核心关注企业经济本质 包括竞争护城河 单位经济效益 再投资空间和管理质量 [1] - 重点研究能够转化为长期自由现金流生成和股东价值创造的关键因素 [1] - 专注于具有强劲长期顺风趋势的行业领域 [1] 专业背景与运营架构 - 具备10年自学历程的自主投资者 目前管理来自朋友和家庭的自有资金 [1] - 通过Seeking Alpha平台分享投资见解并获取同行反馈 [1] - 致力于帮助读者聚焦真正驱动长期股权价值的核心要素 [1] - 强调分析应兼具专业性和可理解性 为寻找高质量长期投资机会的读者提供价值 [1]

By Oliver Griffin and Ana Mano SAO PAULO (Reuters) - Global agricultural machinery manufacturer Deere & Co.'s sales in Brazil could fall by a single-digit percentage in 2026 amid global uncertainties related to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs and high interest rates in the South American country, an executive said on Thursday. "Today, a positive scenario would be (like) 2025, but (sales are) likely to decline," Antonio Carrere, vice president of sales and marketing at the company's Brazil unit, tol ...

Key Takeaways Deere has raised dividends eight times in five years, more than doubling its quarterly payout.The company returned $5.6B to shareholders in 2024, 81% of equipment operations cash flow.DE expects fiscal 2025 net income of $4.75-$5.25B, down about 30% year over year.Deere & Company (DE) has emerged as a standout in the Manufacturing - Farm Equipment industry, consistently delivering dividend yields above the industry average despite mounting challenges for both the company and the broader market ...

核心观点 - 在农业设备制造业中 Agco较Deere更具投资价值 基于Zacks评级及价值评分体系的综合评估 [1][3][6] 行业与公司定位 - 农业设备制造行业代表性企业包括Agco(AGCO)和Deere(DE) [1] - 价值投资需结合盈利预测修正趋势与估值指标进行综合分析 [2][3] 财务指标对比 - Agco远期市盈率为22.31 Deere为25.60 [5] - Agco市盈增长比率(PEG)为1.71 Deere为3.06 [5] - Agco市净率为1.91 Deere为5.12 [6] 投资评级表现 - Agco获得Zacks1级(强力买入)评级 Deere仅为4级(卖出)评级 [3] - 价值评分体系中Agco获B级 Deere仅获D级 [6] - Zacks评级重点关注盈利预测上调趋势 Agco盈利前景持续改善 [3]