Global Equity Research June 13, 2025 Global BioPharma ‒ 2025 US Obesity Survey Takeaways EU Pharma & Biotech Richard Vosser AC (44-20) 7742-6652 richard.vosser@jpmorgan.com James D Gordon (44-20) 7742-6654 james.d.gordon@jpmorgan.com Zain Ebrahim (44-20) 3494-1163 zain.ebrahim@jpmorgan.com Sophia Graeff Buhl Nielsen (44-20) 7742-3918 sophia.graeffbuhlnielsen@jpmorgan.com US Major & Specialty Pharma Christopher Schott, CFA AC 212-622-5676 christopher.t.schott@jpmorgan.com Hardik Parikh, CFA 212-622-2875 hard ...

SAN FRANCISCO, June 17, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Omada Health (Nasdaq: OMDA), the virtual between-visit healthcare provider, released new data1 demonstrating that Omada’s GLP-1 companion program significantly improved persistence rates for GLP-1 medications. Evidence suggests that persistence on a GLP-1 is associated with greater weight loss.2 Omada's analysis found that those who persisted with their GLP-1 medication achieved weight loss results similar to what has been found in controlled research setting ...

Eli Lilly (LLY 0.36%) has been a great growth pick for investors over the past few years. The pharma company, thanks to its weight loss drug portfolio, has seen revenue climb in the double digits -- and as a result, the stock has taken off, climbing more than 170% in three years.You may recognize the names of these blockbusters driving Lilly's growth, as they've been widely talked about across the media. Lilly sells tirzepatide, commercialized as Zepbound for weight loss and Mounjaro for type 2 diabetes. Do ...

IRVINE, Calif., June 09, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- ReShape Lifesciences® (“ReShape” or the “Company”) (Nasdaq: RSLS), the premier physician-led weight loss and metabolic health solutions company, today announced the pricing of its public offering of 1,054,604 shares of common stock at a public offering price of $2.50 per share. Gross proceeds from the offering are expected to be approximately $2.6 million before deducting placement agent fees and other offering expenses. The offering is expected to close on ...

投资策略 - 普通投资者可以借鉴亿万富翁投资者的成功策略来构建财富 [1] - Stanley Druckenmiller的投资动向值得关注，他在过去30年实现了30%的年化平均回报且从未亏损 [4] Stanley Druckenmiller的投资调整 - 第三季度清仓了AI芯片龙头英伟达(NVDA)，该股自2022年第四季度买入至2023年第三季度末上涨超过700% [5] - 今年第一季度清仓了AI软件公司Palantir(PLTR)，该股去年在标普500指数中涨幅达340% [6] - 第一季度增持了制药巨头礼来(LLY)52%的股份，目前持有94,830股价值约7300万美元，占投资组合的2.6% [8] 礼来公司的增长动力 - 礼来在减肥药市场占据重要地位，其GLP-1激动剂tirzepatide(商品名Mounjaro和Zepbound)创造了重磅收入 [9] - 高盛分析师预测到2030年减肥药市场规模将达到每年950亿美元 [10] - 礼来正在开发口服减肥药orforglipron，III期试验数据强劲，预计今年底提交监管审批 [11] 行业比较 - 英伟达和Palantir是AI领域的领导者，而礼来是制药行业的稳健选择 [12] - 礼来兼具股价增长潜力和稳定分红的特点，适合保守型投资者 [12] - AI相关股票可能更适合激进型投资者的长期投资策略 [12]

公司业务与产品 - 礼来公司业务覆盖广泛，包括癌症、免疫学和偏头痛治疗药物，但近年来减肥药物成为其双位数收入增长的主要驱动力 [1] - 公司目前销售两种减肥药物：Mounjaro(用于2型糖尿病)和Zepbound(用于减肥)，这两种药物年收入均达到十亿美元级别 [2] - 礼来与诺和诺德共同主导减肥药市场，其药物属于双GIP和GLP-1受体激动剂类别，通过作用于消化过程中的激素通路来控制血糖和食欲 [5] 市场表现与竞争 - 尽管诺和诺德2017年率先推出Ozempic获得市场领先地位，但礼来2022年推出Mounjaro和2023年推出Zepbound后快速获得市场份额 [6] - 市场需求强劲导致这两种药物长期位列FDA短缺药物名单，直到最近几个月才退出 [6] - 供应改善源于产能提升而非需求下降，预计需求将继续增长 [7] - 2023年Mounjaro和Zepbound分别实现110亿美元和49亿美元销售额，推动公司整体销售额实现32%年度增长和45%季度增长 [10] 研发进展与竞争优势 - 礼来在口服减肥药研发方面取得进展，其口服候选药物orforglipron三期临床试验结果积极，计划年底前申请批准 [11] - 相比诺和诺德的口服semaglutide需要严格饮食限制，礼来潜在产品具有显著优势 [11] 市场前景与估值 - 高盛将2030年全球抗肥胖药物销售预测从1300亿美元下调至950亿美元，但仍较当前280亿美元市场增长239% [8][9] - 公司股票当前市盈率为34倍，与亚马逊和英伟达等科技公司相当 [12] - 公司兼具成长股特性和制药股的稳定性，提供0.8%的股息收益率 [15] - 估值已从峰值回落，目前水平对成长股而言较为合理 [16]

纪要涉及的公司 Allurion公司，一家专注于代谢性健康减肥领域的公司，开发了可吞咽的减肥气球Allurion balloon，并搭配行为改变计划和虚拟护理套件，帮助人们减肥、维持体重和保留肌肉 [2][3] 纪要提到的核心观点和论据 1. **产品特点与优势** - Allurion公司专注于代谢性健康减肥，开发的Allurion balloon是可吞咽的减肥设备，搭配行为改变计划和虚拟护理套件，能帮助患者长期改变生活习惯 [2][3] - 该气球已用于超15万患者，公司拥有超60项相关技术专利 [3][4] 2. **临床效果** - 单独使用Allurion计划，患者平均减重15%，一年后维持95%的减重效果，4 - 12个月内肌肉量占总体重比例增加，还能显著降低糖尿病、高血压等共病风险 [6][7] - Allurion计划与低剂量GLP - 1s（每周1毫克司美格鲁肽）结合，患者平均减重接近或超过20%，能长期使用GLP - 1s，且肌肉量占总体重比例增加 [7][8] 3. **市场情况与公司进展** - 肥胖市场规模达500亿美元，Allurion公司一季度在多地业务有进展，运营费用和亏损均降低近50%，重回法国市场并已开始发货 [11] - 一季度公布Audacity试验数据，该研究为期一年，安全表现出色，严重不良事件率低，超半数患者减重超5% [12][13] 4. **FDA审批与美国市场计划** - 公司进行模块化PMA提交，本月将提交第四模块，FDA通常需9 - 12个月审核，鉴于已审核前三模块，审核时间可能缩短 [20][21] - 美国市场潜力大，40%成年人肥胖，近70%超重，公司将为美国市场制定销售策略，计划推出完整计划，包括气球、虚拟护理套件和行为改变知识 [22][26] 5. **AI应用与商业化** - 公司的Coach Iris已在美国部分诊所使用，未来将升级为能主动分析数据、做决策的AI代理，还将改进Allurion Insights体验 [26][27] - 目前Coach Iris和虚拟护理套件与气球捆绑销售，有高级套餐选项，未来可能以SaaS模式独立盈利 [28][29] 6. **财务情况** - 一季度毛利率提升，得益于公司重组和直销团队扩大，预计美国市场将进一步提升毛利率 [34][35] - 2025年预计现金消耗为2024年的一半（2024年消耗约3400万美元），一季度末资产负债表有现金约2000万美元，目标是2026年非美国业务实现正EBITDA [36][37] 7. **竞争情况** - 设备方面竞争无变化，一些内镜疗法难以与GLP - 1s竞争，公司不视GLP - 1s为竞争对手，认为两者有协同作用 [40] - 减肥手术受GLP - 1s冲击，美国手术量下降约40%，近两年未恢复 [41] 8. **真实世界数据** - 公司有超26篇同行评审期刊出版物，治疗超15万患者，收集数百万数据点 [43] - 数万患者使用4个月平均减重10 - 15%，持续使用行为改变计划和虚拟护理套件可维持大部分减重效果，且能保留肌肉 [44] 其他重要但是可能被忽略的内容 1. Audacity试验中对照组减重超预期，是因采用的插补策略用完成研究的优质受试者数据填补缺失数据，FDA对插补策略持开放灵活态度，公司将在本月提交的第四模块中纳入相关分析 [15][17][18] 2. 单独使用气球，患者减重7 - 8%，实际减重14 - 15%，表明一半效果来自气球，一半来自计划、随访和Coach Iris [30]

The market is worried about Novo Nordisk's grip on the weight loss market, evidenced by the stock plummeting over 52% from its mid-2024 high. Does Wall Street have it wrong, or is Novo Nordisk fumbling a generational growth opportunity? Ozempic helped Novo Nordisk gain an early lead in the weight loss industry, but competition is nipping at the company's heels. Nothing attracts competition like the opportunity for profits, and the weight loss drug market has become arguably the healthcare industry's hottest ...

Only half of health insurer Cigna's clients currently cover the popular GLP-1 weight loss drugs Wegovy and Zepbound because of their high costs. But the company's pharmacy benefits unit Evernorth has reached a deal with drug makers Ely Lilly and Novo Nordisk which it said will bring prices down for employers and their workers."This solution is really focused towards clients that aren't covering it today, and what it allows us to do is one, to bring it on at a reduced price for the plan sponsor, but also cap ...

If you can't beat Novo Nordisk, maybe you should join 'em?Novo Nordisk (NVO 1.96%) stock jumped 3% through 10:55 a.m. Tuesday on some potentially positive news in the GLP-1 weight loss market.As Reuters reports today, an online weight loss company called Noom has begun selling smaller doses of compounded versions of Novo Nordisk's Wegovy GLP-1 drug. This development comes as the compounding pharmacy industry seeks a way to coexist with the big pharmaceutical companies that invented -- and patented -- GLP-1 ...