‘From the technical analysis perspective, the summer surge was a huge deal. Breaking past that 6,120–6,170 barrier essentially opened the door straight up to the 6,800 range’, explained Kar Yong Ang, looking at the S&P 500 chart (see above). ‘I think both the big trading algorithms and the fund managers have the 7,000 mark as a key psychological target. We could easily see a quick push toward, or even slightly above that level, possibly hitting 7,142. But watch out, because a sharp technical pullback is lik ...

行业宏观背景 - 房地产投资信托基金在多年表现不及标准普尔500指数和科技板块后正重回市场[1] - 美联储计划在2025年剩余时间和2026年降息为行业创造了潜在的超级周期场景[1] - 此轮降息与以往不同伴随较高通胀和经济增长放缓可能引发滞胀使实物资产表现优于金融资产[2] - 房地产投资信托基金作为金融资产其价值直接与持有的物业组合及收入挂钩类似于黄金等实物资产[3] Realty Income Corp (NYSE: O) 分析 - 公司专注于商业地产并只租赁给零售和必需消费品领域的顶级优质租户拥有最稳定和可预测的物业组合[4] - 公司有能力每月向股东支付股息每股派息3.23美元年化股息收益率为5.37%[5] - 该股息收益率不仅足以跑赢美国通胀率也远高于十年期国债收益率[6] - 5.37%的收益率处于公司历史收益率范围的高位表明其房地产组合可能被低估[7] - 管理层计划在2025年进行价值660亿美元的潜在收购以获取廉价物业和高租金收益[7] - Cantor Fitzgerald分析师Richard Anderson给予公司目标价64美元较共识目标62.25美元有溢价较当前价格有6.5%上行潜力[8] Equity Residential (NYSE: EQR) 分析 - 该房地产投资信托基金主要持有多户住宅地产其周期性低于大多数同行但安全性不及Realty Income[9] - 其物业位于建筑稀缺区域能获得更高的租金溢价为投资者提供额外上行空间[9] - 重返办公室趋势和住房市场僵局为公司带来顺风平均房价超过50万美元且抵押贷款利率高于6%使租房成为主要选择[10] - 多户住宅成为优质资产每股派息2.77美元年化股息收益率为4.42%高于通胀和国债收益率[11] - 该股息收益率处于历史高位表明物业可能被低估华尔街分析师共识目标价为74.32美元较当前价格有18.6%溢价[12] Camden Property Trust (NYSE: CPT) 分析 - 该基金与Equity Residential类似但其持有的物业更集中于美国阳光地带地区对当地就业和人口增长更为敏感[13] - 由于区域集中度该组合被视为今日列表中最具风险但也提供最佳上行潜力如果住房市场可负担性主题持续[14] - 公司每股派息4.20美元年化股息收益率为4.07%与其他房地产投资信托基金一样该收益率处于历史高位表明组合被低估且可能与阳光地带实际状况脱节[14] - Barclays分析师Richard Hightower给予公司目标价127美元高于共识目标121.73美元较当前价格有23%上行潜力[15]

美联储政策预期 - 市场预计美联储主席鲍威尔将继续降息 期货市场对本月末降息25个基点的概率预期高达95% 较几周前不足50%的概率大幅上升 [1] - 有观点认为 在出现失业率上升和消费者债务违约之前 美联储不会进行更大幅度的降息 [3] - 达拉斯联储主席洛根指出 持续的通胀 有韧性的需求以及劳动力市场仅适度疲软 表明政策限制性 barely restrictive [5] 宏观经济环境 - 美国政府停摆导致劳工统计局关闭 9月非农就业报告和关键支出数据无法发布 美联储在缺乏数据的情况下依靠直觉制定政策 [2] - 美国成年人经济情绪深度负面 74%的受访者认为经济状况一般或糟糕 [4] - 失业率已攀升至4.3% 为2021年以来最高水平 ADP数据显示9月私营部门裁员32,000人 [5] 加密货币市场动态 - 比特币长期持有者积累活动激增 交易所周流出量增长9% 表明市场信心增强 [6] - 去中心化金融总锁仓价值达到825亿美元 较上月增长11% 以太坊和Solana引领资金流入 [6] - 随着金价触及3900美元及日经指数因日本财政刺激预期上涨4.3% 比特币被交易员视为与黄金 股票并列的第三大避险资产 [7]

On that note, let's bring in Kevin Green who joins me now. Happy Friday. So, we haven't got the NFP, but we have hopefully Kevin got the ISM services.What are you seeing there. So, we do have ISM services that was actually just released and unfortunately this isn't the best print to say the least here, Sam. We actually did have the headline number coming in at 50 even.So, we're still in expansionary territory. Street was looking for 51.8% when you're looking at the ISM non manufacturing PMIs here. and that' ...

We recently published 10 Stocks to Watch Ahead of Q3 Earnings Season. Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM) is one of the stocks that Wall Street analysts are discussing these days. In the ‘Final Trades’ segment on CNBC, Jim Lebenthal, a partner at Cerity Partners, said that he likes Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM). Here is what the analyst said: “Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM), I know I spoke about it earlier earlier. There’s a stealth trade going on in energy.” ClearBridge Dividend Strategy stated the following regar ...

Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. The U.S. dollar is in the midst of its steepest annual decline in over five decades, triggering renewed inflation concerns among leading market experts. Dollar Depreciation Sparks Inflation Concerns On Monday, in a post on X, The Kobeissi Letter raised concerns regarding the depreciation in the U.S. Dollar throughout this past year. Citing data from Apollo Global Management, the post warned that this decl ...

This article looks at the 10-year Treasury yield's historical trends since 1962, exploring its relationship with key economic indicators like the Fed Funds Rate (FFR), inflation, and the S&P 500. Here's the same chart with the S&P 500 and 10-year yields adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index (CPI). By adjusting the data for inflation, we gain a clearer understanding of the real returns. This adjustment reveals the severe impact of stagflation, particularly the significant decline in real equi ...

通胀趋势 - 通胀在从2022年达到的40年高位回落后近期出现令人担忧的上升趋势且已持续数月[2][3] - 通胀率已连续四年半高于美联储2%的目标水平目前正朝着错误的方向发展[3] - 服务业通胀呈现走高趋势这可能是关税通胀并非一次性上涨的警示信号[13][14] 政策挑战 - 美联储面临双重使命的困境即在通胀高企时降息支持劳动力市场可能刺激经济活动推高通胀而加息抑制通胀则可能进一步放缓劳动力市场[6][9] - 若通胀被证明更具持续性将导致滞胀方向使美联储同时面临高通胀和劳动力市场恶化的难题难以明确政策走向[3][6] - 美联储主席指出在此情境下没有无风险的路径政策制定者需关注离目标更远的那个使命[7][8] 关税影响 - 芝加哥联储主席担忧关税引发的价格上涨可能不是一次性事件而是构成更持久的挑战[1] - 使用“11%通道”框架评估关税影响即2024年商品进口占美国GDP的11%若影响仅限于该范围则规模可控[10][12] - 关键风险在于关税若适用于中间品将超出其“通道”提高美国制造商的生产成本并可能通过推高服务业通胀产生更广泛的宏观经济影响[11][12][13][14]

Gold prices have surged 46% in 2025 alongside strong stock market performance. That's unusual given that gold and stocks aren't often correlated. Market pros say inflation concerns — and even a fraying of the social fabric — could be fueling gold's rally. When stocks hit trouble, investors usually run to gold. So with stocks at new highs, fresh off a 33% rally since April, investors are…still running to gold? The precious metal is at an all-time high, up 43% this year and a whopping 84% since the ...

The US Jul S&P composite-20 home price index showed home prices rose +1.82% y/y, above expectations of +1.55% y/y, but still the slowest pace of increase in two years.Tuesday’s economic news was mixed for stocks. On the positive side were signs of a stronger labor market, as evidenced by the August JOLTS job openings, which rose more than expected. On the negative side, the Sep MNI Chicago PMI unexpectedly declined, and the Conference Board US Sep consumer confidence index fell more than expected to a 5-mon ...