Key Takeaways NIKE is expanding DTC sales through stores, digital platforms and mobile apps to deepen loyalty.NIKE's digital push uses consumer data to improve recommendations, marketing and inventory management.NKE expects gross margin expansion to begin in fiscal 2027 as mitigation and turnaround efforts gain traction.NIKE, Inc.’s (NKE) direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategy is centered on strengthening its relationship with consumers by expanding sales through its own retail stores, digital platforms and mobi ...

投资评级与估值 - 报告将耐克（NKE US）的投资评级下调至“中性”（NEUTRAL）[2] - 目标价为47.10美元，基于2027财年26倍市盈率（PE）估值，相较现价45.20美元有4.2%的上行空间[3] - 对应2026-2028财年的预测市盈率（PE）分别为29.3倍、24.4倍和18.6倍[3] 核心观点与业绩总览 - 报告核心观点认为，耐克2026财年第三季度北美批发业务表现强劲，但毛利率仍受关税影响，其他地区仍在清理库存[1] - 3QFY26按报告口径营收同比持平，但按货币中性口径营收同比下降3%[4] - 3QFY26毛利率同比下降130个基点至40.2%，主要受北美关税增加带来300个基点的负面影响[4] - 3QFY26每股收益（EPS）为0.35美元，有效税率20%[4] - 公司预计2027财年第二季度（2QFY27）毛利率将触底回升，并进入扩张阶段[8] 分地区业绩表现 - **北美地区**：3QFY26货币中性口径营收同比增长3%，批发业务同比增长11%，但经营利润（报告口径）同比下降11%[5]。跑步、足球品类实现双位数增长，篮球品类实现高个位数增长，但毛利率受关税影响大[5] - **大中华区**：3QFY26货币中性口径营收同比下降10%，批发业务同比下降13%，但经营利润（报告口径）同比增长11%[5]。库存金额同比下降约15%，库存数量下降超20%，批发商库存也实现双位数下滑[7]。新管理层已到位，区域仍处于复苏早期[8] - **EMEA地区（欧洲、中东、非洲）**：3QFY26货币中性口径营收同比下降7%，运动休闲品类双位数下滑，终端销量未达批发出货预期导致折扣提升清库存[5] - **APLA地区（亚太和拉丁美洲）**：3QFY26货币中性口径营收同比下降2%[7] 品类表现与库存管理 - **增长品类**：3QFY26跑步品类营收增长超20%，成为复苏标杆；网球、高尔夫、ACG全地形装备系列也实现增长[3][7] - **疲软/调整品类**：运动服饰品类营收双位数下滑；经典鞋类清库存拖累整体业绩约5个百分点；匡威（Converse）品牌仍处于深度调整期[3] - **库存状况**：公司整体库存金额同比下降1%，产品数量中个位数下降[4]。公司主动控制批发渠道出货量以清理库存，预计未来数个季度仍会对营收增长形成拖累[7] 财务预测与成本调整 - **收入预测**：预计2026-2028财年收入分别为461.6亿、461.1亿和485.9亿美元，同比增长0.3%、0.1%和5.4%[3] - **净利润预测**：预计2026-2028财年归母净利润分别为22.3亿、26.6亿和34.5亿美元，同比变化-30.8%、+19.5%和+29.3%[3] - **成本重组**：3QFY26产生2.3亿美元员工遣散费，主要涉及供应链、技术部门及匡威的运营成本优化[4]。公司正主动重置成本结构，预计成本优化收益将从2027财年开始显现，2028财年持续扩大[4] - **费用展望**：公司预计2026财年第四季度（4QFY26）销售及一般行政管理费用（SG&A）金额基本持平或微降[8] 未来指引 - 公司预计4QFY26营收同比下降2%-4%，其中北美温和增长，但被大中华区（预计同比下降约20%）和匡威的下滑所抵消[8] - 预计4QFY26毛利率同比将下降25-75个基点（包含北美关税带来的250个基点负面影响），但会环比改善[8] - 预计2027财年第一季度（1QFY27）是最后一个对毛利率产生重大同比逆风的季度，之后毛利率将进入扩张阶段[8]

When a stock that's done well for a long time slumps, investors sometimes get tempted to jump in. But the market has sent the price down for a reason. That's why investors should look deeper into the company. Nike (NYSE: NKE) rewarded shareholders for a long time. But that hasn't been the case for awhile. The share price has been on a downward trajectory for the last five years. Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker ca ...

ab 18 June 2026 Powered by YES UBS Evidence Lab Global Research US Softlines Retail UBS Evidence Lab inside: European Transaction Monitor: May Shows Minor Improvement Our Softlines EU Consumer Spending Index decreased 20% y/y in May: We combine credit card, debit card, and account bank transactions data to track consumer spending for 19 Softlines brands across France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom. Looking at spending trends across all 19 brands and countries observed, our Softlines Europe C ...