Accessible version 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 The Flow Show China in a Bull Shop Scores on the Doors: oil 62.5%, global stocks 12.7%, US stocks 12.5%, US dollar 3.0%, cash 2.7%, HY bonds 0.6%, gold -1.1%, IG -2.8%, bitcoin -3.7%, govt bonds -4.0% YTD. Zeitgeist: "Policymakers never run out of ammunition. But they can run out of credibility, and when they do, more ammo needed to restore financial order." Zeitgeist: "Trump would love Xi's bond yields, but Xi don't want Trump's stock market." The Biggest Pic ...

全球新一轮加息周期开始了吗？20260930 全球紧缩周期复盘与美债配置价值分析 Q&A 摘要 当前全球是否进入了新一轮加息周期？主要经济体在 2026 年 9 月的加息行动 应如何解读？ 当前全球尚未进入加速紧缩阶段，9 月同步加息动能持续性弱，受日本 内需疲软及债务压力限制，加息路径受阻。 1970 年以来紧缩周期分三类：抗通胀型（外部供给冲击）、抑过热型 （资产泡沫/债务驱动）、预防型（经济企稳主动撤宽）。 美国在全球利率变动中领先约 2 个月，加息后 3 个月内全球净加息扩散 指数达峰值，但市场通常提前交易宽松预期。 欧元区政策与全球高度同步（领先期为 0），日本则因长期负利率政策 表现出明显的滞后性与弱相关性。 美债配置性价比凸显，市场已提前计价加息预期，若美伊冲突缓和带动 油价回落，期限利差有望收窄。 核心风险变量：美伊冲突及美国中期选举对通胀的影响、日本退出零利 率引发的套息交易平仓、AI 产业投融资对利率路径的扰动。 欧元区的货币政策与全球周期高度同步。分析显示，在不同样本区间内，欧元 区的领先期数基本为 0，且相关系数很高，表明其货币政策与全球周期共振， 但单向引领作用相对较弱。 相比之下， ...

Q3 Winners & Losers: winners... bitcoin 43%, oil 42%, software 18%, Mag7 11%; losers... zero-coupon bonds -15% (Chart 3), semis -11%, industrials -10%, Korea -8%. Zeitgeist: "Rates don't matter when you're curing cancer." The Price is Right: best of times, worst of times... tighter financial conditions crushing equity breadth... 400 SPX stocks trading below 50dma, 300 stocks <200dma as market trading "long artificial intelligence" (NDX), "short artificial irrelevance" (SPW), confident MAG7, AI, biotech (Cha ...

October 7, 2026 11:23 PM GMT Global Macro Commentary | North America October 7: Dollar Gains, Bonds Diverge Higher oil and Middle East tensions supported USD; Fed minutes stayed hawkish; strong 10y auction checked the Treasury sell- off; French fiscal stress widened OAT spreads; RBI hiked 25bp; DXY at 102.27 (+0.4%); US 10y at 5.28 (+0.4bp). Higher energy prices and European fiscal concerns supported the dollar and pressured risk assets, while strong demand at the US 10y auction reversed part of the earlier ...

October 15, 2026 05:16 PM GMT Inflation Drove the Treasury Sell-Off Through Real Yields Inflation and the Fed's response to it drove most of the Treasury sell-off. A hawkish Fed lifts real yields and lowers breakevens while higher energy prices lift breakevens, so real yields rose while breakevens barely moved. We don't buy the argument that this sell-off wasn't about inflation. Key Takeaways Click here for our Bloomberg Ticker Almanac. Please add me to your distribution list. | M October 15, 2026 05:16 PM ...