文章核心观点 - 安谋控股公司在人工智能芯片领域表现出色，但股票在2025财年第二财季财报发布前被严重高估，基于预测的增长率，股价应低于100美元，不建议投资者逢低买入 [1][9] 财务表现 - 2025财年第一财季公司销售同比增长39%，轻松超过市场普遍预期，非美国通用会计准则下每股收益0.40美元，超出预期0.05美元，营收9.39亿美元，同比增长39.1%，超出预期3250万美元 [4] - 第一财季营收中，许可收入同比增长72%至4.72亿美元，关键版税收入仅增长17%至4.67亿美元，版税收入对长期财务状况更重要 [4] - 第一财季年化合同价值（ACV）同比增长14%，达到近12亿美元，较上一季度仅增长1100万美元，导致第二财季指引令人失望 [5] 业绩指引 - 公司预计第二财季营收中值仅为8.05亿美元，低于市场普遍预期的8.13亿美元，较去年同期的8.06亿美元有所下降 [6][7] - 公司未改变全年营收39.5亿美元和每股收益1.55美元的目标，但市场原本对其增长有更高预期 [7] 估值分析 - 基于当前市场普遍预期的每股收益目标，公司股票对应2028财年每股收益目标3.50美元的市盈率仍达47倍，对应2025财年每股收益目标的市盈率达92倍，远高于正常股票20 - 40倍的市盈率范围 [8] - 按正常估值，公司股价至少应下跌50%，即便按2026财年每股收益目标2.05美元的40倍市盈率计算，股价也仅为82美元 [8] 市场情况 - 股票市场被公司亮眼的许可收入增长率和人工智能芯片需求的炒作所吸引，但公司在物联网和工业市场的销售下滑，且基于现有芯片出货量，仅靠新技术和高价芯片提高版税收入难度较大 [1][8]

Goldman Sachs analyst Toshiya Hari reiterated a Buy rating on Arm Holdings ARM with a price target of $144, up from $143.Arm reported fiscal first quarter 2025 revenue of $939 million (+39% year-on-year), 2% and 4% above Goldman Sachs estimate and Street (FactSet), respectively. Adjusted EPS of $0.40 was 10% above Goldman Sachs estimate and 16% above the Street.Arm guided second-quarter revenue to $805 million at the mid-point (flat Y/Y), 4% below Goldman Sachs estimate and in line with the Street. In contr ...

Arm beat Wall Street's quarterly targets -- so why is its stock crashing?Arm (ARM -16.08%) stock is getting hit hard in Thursday's trading. The semiconductor-specialist's share price was down 16.4% as of 1:15 p.m. ET, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.After the market closed yesterday, Arm published better-than-expected results for the first quarter of its current fiscal year, which ended June 30. But expectations were sky high, and investors didn't see enough bullish indicators in the c ...

新荣记张勇的战略调整 - 新荣记创始人张勇在2023年7月决定由攻转守，认为品牌存续比规模扩张更重要，提出"品牌如何贵气"的核心观点 [4] - 张勇反思餐饮行业浮躁现象，强调专业性和专注度，以葡萄酒庄20年培育期为例说明时间对品牌价值的关键作用 [5] - 东京开店计划体现长期品牌战略，目标用5-10年将新荣记打造成东京知名中餐品牌，进而成为全球品质中餐代表 [5] 中国电商海外广告投放变化 - Temu和Shein二季度在Meta广告投放合计4亿美元，较去年三季度峰值明显回落，主因Temu控制美国业务比重及Shein上市前低调策略 [6][7] - Meta二季度亚太区广告收入增速从41%放缓至28%，YouTube广告收入增速环比下降8个百分点至13% [6][7] - Meta通过AI算法优化实现广告收入383.3亿美元（同比+21.7%），股价大涨7%，形成与微软/Google的AI商业化差距 [7] 咖啡行业竞争态势 - 星巴克中国二季度同店销售额下滑14%，客单价与交易量均降7%，县级市场扩张速度低于9000家门店目标 [7][9] - 瑞幸营收创新高但净利润连续两季度下滑，库迪咖啡出现大规模闭店，茶饮品牌霸王茶姬已超4500家门店冲击咖啡市场 [9] - 星巴克中国新店首年投资回报率仅70%，县级市场维持30元定价策略但面临本土化挑战 [7][9] 红牛商标权纠纷进展 - 长沙中院一审驳回泰国天丝对华彬经销商商标侵权诉讼，但销售禁令仍有效，双方就50年商标使用权各执一词 [11][12][13] - 泰国天丝声明将上诉并举报程序违法，北京红牛指控泰国方"内外勾联"另立公司替代中国红牛 [12][13] - 微信公众号出现三个"红牛"账号分属泰国天丝、授权运营商普盛食品及华彬集团运营 [11] 半导体行业动态 - 费城半导体指数单日涨6.7%，英伟达市值单日增3290亿美元创纪录，AMD涨4.4%/ASML涨9% [14] - 上涨动因包括：前期超跌（英伟达月跌16%）、科技公司AI基建投入增加、美联储降息预期强化 [15][16] - 台积电2023年员工平均年薪53.8万元（当地收入3.5倍），南京厂硕士年薪35万元，显著高于中芯国际15万元 [18] 汽车行业关键数据 - 理想汽车7月交付5.1万辆创纪录，L6车型占比40%，前7月累计完成下调后年度目标50% [19] - 宝马二季度汽车业务利润率降至8.4%，息税前利润降10%至38.8亿欧元，中国市场需求疲软 [20] - 丰田营业利润增速放缓至17%（1.3万亿日元），中国业务承压且造假丑闻持续影响 [27] 其他行业要点 - 万豪大中华区二季度客房均价下滑4%，表现仍优于行业平均水平 [23] - 字节跳动新加坡办公室食物中毒事件涉及130人，云海肴和莆田两家供应商被停业调查 [22] - 达美航空因CrowdStrike系统故障损失5亿美元，考虑法律索赔 [25][26]

Arm will stop reporting chip volumes, ending a long-standing practice.Shares of Arm Holdings (ARM 8.43%) were down in pre-market trading Thursday morning despite a first-quarter earnings report that beat analyst expectations. Revenue shot up 39% year over year in the period ended June 30, driven by multiple high-value license agreements and a 17% rise in royalty revenue. The company estimates that 28.6 billion Arm-based chips were shipped in fiscal 2024, spread across the smartphone, embedded, automotive, c ...

Key TakeawaysArm shares plunged ahead of Thursday’s opening bell after the British chip designer’s light profit guidance overshadowed quarterly results that came in above expectations.Monitor if bulls can successfully defend an uptrend line that stretches back to the October 2023 low. A successful hold of the indicator could see a resumption of the stock’s longer-term uptrend, while a breakdown may signal a change in trend direction.Upon a close below the uptrend line, Arm shares could find chart support at ...

财务数据和关键指标变化 - 公司Q1营收同比增长39%,创历史新高,超过了指引上限 [10] - 许可收入同比增长70%,创历史新高,主要由于AI应用需求增加 [10] - 版税收入同比增长17%,主要由于Armv9的采用率提高 [10][11] - 公司预计全年营收增长18%-27%,中值为22.5%增长 [22] - 预计全年版税收入增长低20%左右,低于此前预期的中20%增长 [22][23] - 预计全年许可收入增长低中至低20%左右 [24] 各条业务线数据和关键指标变化 - 智能手机版税收入同比增长超过50%,而智能手机出货量仅增长个位数 [11][19] - 云计算业务版税收入同比增长超过75%,增长最快 [51][52] - 汽车业务版税收入同比增长约20%,主要集中在ADAS和IVI领域 [53] - IoT、网络和工业设备版税收入同比下降,持续疲软 [19][53][54] 各个市场数据和关键指标变化 - 智能手机市场版税收入增长强劲,超过50% [11][19] - 云计算市场版税收入增长最快,超过75% [51][52] - 汽车市场版税收入增长约20%,主要集中在ADAS和IVI领域 [53] - IoT、网络和工业设备市场版税收入持续下降 [19][53][54] 公司战略和发展方向及行业竞争 - 公司持续加大对计算子系统(CSS)的投资,已在移动、笔记本、云和汽车等主要市场取得进展 [13] - 公司看好AI应用带来的计算需求增长,正在加大对Arm架构的投资 [12][29][35][37] - 公司在数据中心AI加速器市场与英伟达展开竞争,已推出基于Arm的Grace Hopper和Grace Blackwell产品 [57][58][59] - 公司预计未来5年内,Arm架构在PC市场份额有望达到50% [78][79][80][81][82][83] 管理层对经营环境和未来前景的评论 - 管理层对公司未来前景表示乐观,认为Arm将成为未来各类平台的基础 [104][105] - 管理层表示,即使在一些行业出现库存调整,公司的许可业务仍保持强劲增长 [43][44][45][46][47] - 管理层认为,AI应用对计算能力的需求持续增长,将是公司未来重要的增长动力 [29][30][35][37][59] 其他重要信息 - 公司Q2营收预计为7.8-8.3亿美元,同比持平,为全年最低点 [20] - 公司预计Q2版税收入增长将加速至低20%左右 [21] - 公司预计全年非GAAP营业利润率约48% [17] - 公司预计全年非GAAP EPS为1.45-1.65美元 [26] 问答环节重要的提问和回答 问题1 **Vivek Arya 提问** 如何看待许可收入的增长与未来版税收入的转化关系 [28] **Rene Haas 回答** 从许可到产生版税收入通常需要3-4年时间,公司正在加大对Armv9和计算子系统的投资,这将带来更高的版税收入增长 [29][30][31][32] 问题2 **Lee Simpson 提问** 公司近期推出了多款新CPU和GPU产品,如何看待这些产品对版税收入的拉动 [34] **Rene Haas 回答** 公司会每年推出新一代CPU和GPU产品,以满足不同市场如智能手机、PC和数据中心的需求,这些新产品将带动版税收入的增长 [35][36][37][38] 问题3 **Matt Ramsay 提问** 在一些行业出现库存调整的背景下,公司的许可业务情况如何 [40][41] **Rene Haas 回答** 公司目前未观察到许可业务有任何放缓,因为AI应用对计算能力的需求持续增长,推动了新的芯片设计 [43][44][45][46][47]

Arm Holdings (ARM) shares gave back Wednesday's gains in after-hours trading, dropping even as the chip-design company reported fiscal first-quarter earnings that were higher than expected. The shares were recently down more than 12% after gaining more than 8% in the regular session. The shares have risen for much of 2024, climbing more than 90% this year. The chip-design company projected adjusted earnings per share between 23 cents and 27 cents for the current quarter, leaving unchanged its full-year rev ...

Chip designer Arm Holdings on Wednesday reported a stronger-than-expected 39% surge in quarterly revenue, and forecast fiscal second-quarter sales broadly in line with Wall Street estimates, yet its shares fell about 9% in extended trading.For the current fiscal second quarter, Arm forecast revenue in a range between $780m and $830m, compared with an average analyst estimate of $804.1m, according to LSEG data.“We’re seeing more investment [in artificial intelligence] than we saw even 90 days ago,” the chief ...

About this content About Emily Jarvie Emily began her career as a political journalist for Australian Community Media in Hobart, Tasmania. After she relocated to Toronto, Canada, she reported on business, legal, and scientific developments in the emerging psychedelics sector before joining Proactive in 2022. She brings a strong journalism background with her work featured in newspapers, magazines, and digital publications across Australia, Europe, and North America, including The Examiner, The Advocate, ...