Key Takeaways Moderna projects Q2 sales of $127 million and a $2.99 per-share loss ahead of its Aug. 1 earnings release.Spikevax sales are estimated to decline sharply, with limited revenue from the RSV vaccine, mResvia.Investors await news on vaccine label expansions, regulatory filings, and late-stage trial results.We expect Moderna (MRNA) to surpass expectations when it reports second-quarter 2025 earnings on Aug. 1, before the opening bell. The company’s earnings beat estimates by 13.70% in the last rep ...

Key Takeaways J&J, Novartis, and Roche kicked off Q2 with beats, boosting guidance on solid drug sales and strong demand.Merck, AstraZeneca, and AbbVie may see Q2 gains from rising sales of cancer and immunology drugs.MRNA's Q2 sales likely leaned on Spikevax, with focus shifting to pipeline updates amid fading COVID demand.The second-quarter 2025 reporting cycle for the Medical sector is about to pick up pace this week, as most firms are slated to share their earnings results over the next two weeks. The s ...

In the short term, Moderna (MRNA 0.41%) looks like a bad bet. It's coming off of the momentum of its COVID-19 vaccine, and doesn't have a lot of new ammo ready yet to expand in new directions. I think the stock might stay low for quite a while. But, if its pipeline of new products comes into play, including work on new treatments in oncology, then Moderna stock -- down 74% in the year ending July 21 -- might have some great long-term potential. In 2022, Moderna had over $19 billion in revenue. In 2024, that ...

核心观点 - 市场预计Moderna在2025年第二季度将实现同比盈利增长但收入下降，关键数据与预期的对比将影响股价短期走势[1][2] - 公司预计季度每股亏损2.99美元，同比改善10.2%，收入预计1.2717亿美元，同比下降47.2%[3] - 分析师近期上调Moderna盈利预期，盈利预期差(EPS ESP)达+7.22%，结合Zacks排名第3，显示公司大概率超预期[12] 财务预期与修正 - 过去30天共识EPS预期被下调1.37%，反映分析师对初始评估的集体修正[4] - 最近四个季度Moderna均超预期EPS，上一季度实际亏损2.52美元，较预期亏损2.92美元高出13.7%[13][14] 行业比较 - 同行业公司Amicus Therapeutics预计季度EPS 0.02美元，同比下降66.7%，收入1.475亿美元，同比增16.4%[18][19] - Amicus Therapeutics的EPS ESP高达+191.67%，Zacks排名第3，显示其超预期可能性较高，过去四个季度两次超预期[19][20] 方法论与模型 - Zacks盈利预期差(ESP)模型通过对比最新精确估计与共识估计预测业绩偏离，正ESP值对预测有显著意义[7][8][9] - 当正ESP与Zacks排名1-3结合时，70%概率实现盈利超预期，排名强化ESP预测能力[10] 业绩影响 - 盈利超预期或不及预期并非股价变动的唯一因素，其他催化剂或利空可能抵消业绩影响[15][16] - 尽管Moderna盈利超预期概率高，但投资者需综合考虑其他因素决定交易策略[17]

Moderna Inc.’s MRNA stock has surged approximately 37% in the last month but has dipped around 15% year to date.On Wednesday, the stock is trading around 7% higher.Notably, there is no news to justify the movement. Over the last month:The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved Moderna’s supplemental Biologics License Application (sBLA) for Spikevax, the company's COVID-19 vaccine, in children six months through 11 years of age who are at increased risk for COVID-19 disease.Moderna revealed results ...

7月18日，新冠疫苗巨头Moderna突然宣布，将取消在日本建设mRNA药物生产工厂的计划。Moderna称 这一决定是由于全球及日本商业环境发生变化。据第一财经记者了解，Moderna中国工厂的建设目前也 未有进展。(第一财经) ...

莫德纳日本工厂建设计划变更 - 公司决定不再继续发展由莫德纳日本公司主导的mRNA药物活性成分工厂建设计划 [1] - 该决定基于对近期经营环境的慎重考虑 [1] - 由Moderna Enzymatics主导的mRNA药物研究和制造设施大楼已经完工 [1] 莫德纳日本业务战略 - 公司将继续把日本业务扩张定位为其战略的重要组成部分 [1] - 若未来商业环境变得有利 公司计划重新考虑建设mRNA药物活性成分工厂 [1]

股价表现 - Moderna最新收盘价下跌1.87%至33.64美元，表现逊于标普500指数0.33%的跌幅，道指和纳斯达克指数分别下跌0.63%和0.22% [1] - 过去一个月公司股价上涨25.34%，远超医疗行业0.32%的跌幅和标普500指数4.07%的涨幅 [1] 财务预测 - 预计公司即将公布的季度EPS为-2.97美元，较去年同期改善10.81%，但季度营收预计1.3015亿美元，同比下滑46% [2] - 全年共识预测显示EPS为-9.81美元（同比恶化10.6%），营收20.8亿美元（同比下滑35.83%） [3] - 过去30天Zacks共识EPS预测下调0.26% [5] 行业评级 - 所属医疗-生物医学与遗传学行业在Zacks行业排名中位列第76位，处于全部250多个行业的前31% [6] - 该行业评级显示前50%行业平均表现优于后50%行业2倍 [6] 分析师评级 - 公司当前Zacks评级为3级（持有） [5] - Zacks排名系统1级（强力买入）股票自1988年以来年均回报率达25% [5]

核心观点 - Moderna获得FDA全面批准 其COVID-19疫苗Spikevax可用于6个月至11岁高风险儿童群体 此前该群体仅获紧急使用授权[1][6] - 更新版Spikevax将于2025-2026年美国疫苗接种季面向符合条件的患者提供[2][6] - Moderna股价在消息公布后单日上涨4.5% 但年初至今累计下跌17.5% 跑输行业0.2%的涨幅[1][3] 监管审批进展 - Spikevax目前覆盖全年龄段高风险人群：65岁及以上成年人 以及6个月至64岁有严重COVID-19风险的个体[2] - Novavax的Nuvaxovid成为美国唯一非mRNA疫苗 近期获FDA批准用于12-64岁高风险人群及65岁以上老年人 但尚未覆盖12岁以下群体[7] 市场竞争格局 - 主要竞品包括辉瑞(PFE)/BioNTech(BNTX)的Comirnaty 同样采用mRNA技术 适用人群与Spikevax完全重合[4] - 行业呈现mRNA技术主导局面 Moderna与辉瑞/BioNTech形成直接竞争关系[4][7] 产品管线规划 - 公司管理层明确更新版疫苗时间表 强调2025-2026接种季的商业化准备[2] - 竞品Novavax在非mRNA细分市场建立差异化优势 但覆盖人群存在明显年龄断层[7]

美股医药板块表现 - 美股医药板块整体走低 未能延续本周涨势 [1] - 诺和诺德(NVO US)股价下跌超3% [1] - Moderna(MRNA US)股价下跌超2 4% [1] - 礼来(LLY US)股价下跌超1% [1] - 辉瑞(PFE US)股价下跌近1% [1] 行业动态 - FDA可能加快药物审评流程 旨在降低美国药品价格 [1]