We recently published 10 Big Names Investors Are Dumping. Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE:CLF) is one of the worst performers on Wednesday. Shares of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE:CLF) dropped for a second day on Wednesday, shedding 3.67 percent to close at $11.29 apiece as investors unloaded positions while in a wait-and-see mode on President Donald Trump’s visit to the UK, where issues on the steel industry are expected to be discussed. A day before Trump flew to Britain, the US government dashed hopes of ze ...

Analysts are still plenty bullish on NUE, with 11 of the 14 in coverage carrying a "buy" or better rating, and the remaining three a tepid "hold." Meanwhile, the 12-month consensus price target of $157.79 is a 14.7% premium to current levels, and represents prices not seen since last year. Steel stock Nucor Corp (NYSE:NUE) was last seen down 4.1% at $136.95, after the company cut its third- quarter guidance to a range of $2.05 to $2.15 per share, expecting earnings to decrease in all three of its operating ...

Thyssenkrupp on Tuesday said it has received a non-binding bid for its steel division from India's Jinal Steel , without disclosing any further details. ...

Key Points I bought Nucor in 2015 when the Dividend King steelmaker was deeply out of favor. The company has again become unloved on Wall Street -- a pretty normal swing for Nucor. The vote of confidence from Buffett is great, but it just confirms what I've believed for a decade. 10 stocks we like better than Nucor › I added Nucor (NYSE: NUE) to my portfolio in September 2015. Roughly a decade later, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A)(NYSE: BRK.B) decided to buy the stock, too. I'd ...

钢材：螺纹仓单压力大，钢价依然承压 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号：F03113636 投资咨询证号：Z0018817 ◼ 数据总结： ◼ 供给：本周螺纹小样本产量218.68万吨（-1.88），热卷小样本产量314.24万吨（-10.5）。247家钢厂高炉铁水日 均240.55万吨（+11.71），富宝49家独立电弧炉钢厂产能利用率35.2%（-0.3）。电炉端，华东平电电炉成本在 3373（折盘面）元/吨左右，电炉平电利润-166.92元/吨左右，谷电成本3208（折理记）元左右，华东三线螺纹谷电 利润-2元/吨。本周钢价维持震荡偏弱走势，谷电利润下滑，陷入亏损，短流程钢有所减产；长流程钢利润陷入亏损， 但阅兵后铁水快速修复至240万吨以上；废钢日耗在54万吨左右，与前一周持平，总体醋缸供应人高。 ◼ 需求：Mysteel统计本周小样本螺纹表需202.07万吨（-4），小样本热卷表需305.36万吨（+20.8），本周钢材快速 复产，热卷下游产线恢复速度快，但螺纹舱单压力大，导致热卷表需快速修复而螺纹表需下滑；本周钢厂运输恢复， 库存从钢厂向社会转移。1-7月中国固定资产投资增速均环比下滑，国内项目投资增量 ...

11 September 2025 | 10:39PM HKT China: August activity data preview: Expecting above-consensus IP and below-consensus FAI and retail sales Bottom line: August activity data – including industrial production (IP), fixed asset investment (FAI) and retail sales – will be released next Monday (15 September). Our forecasts are above market consensus for IP, but below for FAI and retail sales. Specifically, we expect IP growth to rise to 6.2% yoy in August from 5.7% yoy in July, reflecting the improvement in manu ...

核心观点 - 安赛乐米塔尔2025年第二季度财务表现稳健但增长动力不足 收入同比下降2%至159亿美元 EBITDA达186亿美元略超预期 但净收入中包含约8亿美元异常收益 调整后净收入约为10亿美元[3] - 公司面临显著财务压力 上半年自由现金流为负8亿美元流出 净债务从2024年底51亿美元升至83亿美元 主要因资本支出、股东分配、并购及股票回购[4] - 估值呈现分化现象 市盈率105倍显著低于标普500的244倍 但自由现金流倍数288倍高于市场215倍 反映盈利质量与市场预期存在差距[6] 财务表现 - 2025年第二季度收入159亿美元 环比增长但同比下降2% 主要受钢铁售价上升推动[3] - EBITDA达186亿美元 超出分析师共识185亿美元 受益于欧洲地区有利的价差因素及印度业务贡献增强[3] - 净收入179亿美元 其中含约8亿美元异常收益 调整后净收入约为10亿美元[3] - 经营现金流改善至约14亿美元 主要因营运资本释放[4] 运营状况 - 业务呈现强周期性特征 EBITDA环比增长主要依赖一次性收益和价格驱动 核心运营韧性不足[5] - 钢铁需求预测下调 受美国关税政策和销量停滞影响 未来增长动力存在不确定性[5] - 过去三年收入年均下降106% 远低于标普500年均53%的增长率 最近十二个月销售额从640亿美元降至610亿美元 降幅48%[7] 盈利能力 - 过去一年经营收入19亿美元 利润率31% 经营现金流49亿美元 利润率81% 净收入25亿美元 利润率41%[8] - 所有利润率指标均显著低于标普500指数 后者经营利润率、现金流利润率及净利润率分别为187%、203%和126%[8] 财务结构 - 债务权益比527% 高于标普500平均203% 现金占总资产比例54% 低于指数71%的水平[9] - 高债务与低现金余额并存 财务弹性受限[9] 市场表现 - 经济下行期表现弱于大盘 2022年通胀冲击中股价下跌468% 较标普500最大跌幅254%更为剧烈[10] - 2020年新冠疫情期间股价下跌614% 远超标普500最大跌幅339%[10] 战略动向 - 通过战略收购实现业务多元化 包括完全控股AM/NS Calvert项目[2][3] - 法国工会组织大规模示威抗议 反对公司在法国北部和东部裁员约600人的计划[2]

行业与公司 * 纪要涉及中国材料行业 涵盖钢铁、锂、煤炭等多个细分领域[1][7] * 摩根士丹利研究团队对行业持"具吸引力"观点[7] * 覆盖公司包括宝钢股份、赣锋锂业、紫金矿业等众多中国材料行业上市公司[60][62] 反内卷政策核心观点与影响 * 政策最终目标是稳定行业利润并帮助遏制通缩 基于发改委需求假设决定年度产量[2] * 行业若普遍亏损将通过生产控制推动价格复苏 一旦价格恢复至可持续盈利水平则暂停生产控制[2] * 最终行业盈利能力将从当前 distressed 水平恢复 但之后将呈区间波动 公司盈利变得更稳定且波动性降低 可能导致股票重新评级[2] * 政策推进速度将因细分领域国有化程度、分散度和当前盈利能力而异[2] 钢铁行业具体影响 * 生产削减指令已由北京发出但尚未下达到唐山钢厂[3] * 部分钢厂认为鉴于正利润率表明市场供需平衡 无需削减[3] * 其他认为削减不可避免 可能在第四季度发生[3] * 山东、江苏和辽宁等地区因钢铁GDP占比小已真正削减生产[3] * 唐山钢厂已达成协议将生产控制在能维持正利润率的水平 若利润率转负将自愿调整生产[3] 锂行业具体影响 * 宜春其他七座锂云母矿需在9月30日截止日前向地方政府提交储量重新评估文件 随后提交中央政府[4] * 最终关闭决定可能稍晚做出 可能在11月[4] * 预计这些矿在许可证转换期间需要关闭3-6个月的概率超过50%[4] * 包括Jianxiawo矿在内的总影响约为每年15万吨LCE[4] * 锂需求好于预期 储能系统需求非常强劲 电动汽车需求健康[4] 煤炭行业具体影响 * 反内卷旨在稳定煤炭价格 自7月超产检查以来 样本煤矿产量基于Sxcoal数据下降5%[10] * 供应预计在年底前小幅下降[10] * 2025年煤炭总需求可能同比增长1-2%[10] * 热煤价格预计在每吨640-700元人民币区间波动 下行空间有限[10] * 约20%焦煤矿尽管近期反弹仍处于亏损状态[10] * 蒙古国产量增长潜力受港口库存能力和中国需求限制 蒙古露天矿也面临成本上升问题[10] 其他重要内容 * 研究基于在中国进行的为期五天的实地调研[1][6] * 摩根士丹利及关联方持有部分覆盖公司1%以上普通股 包括中国铝业、赣锋锂业、紫金矿业等[16] * 在过去12个月内从部分覆盖公司获得投资银行服务或其他服务报酬[17][18] * 股票评级采用相对评级体系（Overweight、Equal-weight、Underweight）而非买入/持有/卖出[24][28]

September 5, 2025 03:40 PM GMT China Materials | Asia Pacific Anti-Involution Trip Day 5 On the last day of our anti-involution trip, we focus on steel, coal, copper, and macro conditions. Nuanced impact of anti-involution – complex on the macro level, larger companies likely to benefit: Broader supply consolidation would weigh on demand in the form of lower investment, job losses, and the recognition and allocation of losses. After all, exit from or lower utilization of capacities – particularly relatively ...

September 4, 2025 02:25 PM GMT Greater China Materials Some steel inventory in Tangshan may not be liquid for the time being: Steel inventory in Tangshan seems to have remained at high levels while other regions started to show a decline. This is due to a lot of this inventory being locked in the futures market, as trading companies carry out a trade by going long near-term contracts and shorting forward contracts. This inventory may come back to the market when the price is in their favor. Iron ore view qu ...