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Schlosstein Doesn't Expect Shutdown to Cause Recession
Youtube· 2025-10-07 02:04
So I got to start with the shutdown and what's happening here in the US. We've become pretty inured to these shutdowns beyond this time being the Democrats who are refusing to sign a clean continuing resolution. Does the current impasse feel different in tone or consequence from slowdowns in the past.Well, I think if you look back historically, slowdowns or shutdowns have been short and there's been a path to resolution. What's different this time is the parties don't seem to be talking a whole lot. They se ...
大国财政的担当:“十四五”时期我国财政治理成效回顾
粤开证券· 2025-09-18 18:03
财政治理成效 - “十四五”期间全国累计新增减税降费预计达到10.5万亿元[5] - 2024年全国一般公共预算收入占GDP比重降至16.3%,较2020年下降1.4个百分点[5] - 2024年全国一般公共预算支出达28.5万亿元,较2020年增长15.8%[5] - “十四五”时期一般公共预算赤字率均值为3.3%,广义赤字率均值为6.5%[6] - 2024年民生支出占一般公共预算支出比重升至39.7%[8] - 2024年末全国政府债务余额82.1万亿元,较2020年年均增长15.2%[9] 财政治理逻辑变化 - 2025年财政赤字率升至4.0%[11] - 2025年中央赤字占比达85.9%,较2020年提高11.9个百分点[16] - 2023-2025年中央对地方转移支付规模连续三年超10万亿元[16] - 2024年中央对地方均衡性转移支付增长7.5%[14]