纪要涉及的行业或公司 * 中国离岸和在岸股票市场 包括MSCI中国指数和沪深300指数[1] * 中国宏观经济[6] * 科技/互联网、消费服务、保险和材料等行业[49] 纪要提到的核心观点和论据 * **流动性驱动的涨势具有持续性** 尽管宏观经济出现周期性疲软且盈利预期平淡 但多重因素支持涨势延续 包括中国股票估值处于中游水平、趋势盈利增长在高个位数、A股散户风险偏好仅略高于中性、各类投资者的基金持仓远未达拥挤水平、资产再配置资金流入股市的潜力强劲 关键风险是市场流动性突然收紧、监管冲击和宏观政策令人失望[1] * **经济放缓与股市上涨并存** 宏观数据显示7月开始出现增长疲态 经济学家预计在实现全年5%增长目标后 2025年剩余时间增长将放缓 上市公司共识盈利修正趋势近月停滞 维持2025年8-9%的EPS增长预测 高于卖方对H股5%的共识但低于A股15%的共识[6] * **政策提振乐观情绪并推高估值** MSCI中国和沪深300指数年内分别上涨27%和11% 主要受估值倍数扩张驱动 归因于一系列政策相关事件和积极催化剂 包括去年9月的政策转向、1月底的"DeepSeek时刻"、2月的POE研讨会、4月下旬中美贸易紧张局势缓和以及7月初的CCFEA会议 这些事件压缩了股权/政策风险溢价并支撑了远期盈利预期[11] * **全球性的流动性驱动市场上涨** 全球前十大股市（除中国外）中有8个正交易于或接近其历史高点 中国离岸和在岸股票分别较2021年历史高点低34%和26% 全球主要股市板块都显现出实体经济与金融经济表现的分化 宏观与市场的相关性降至低点 表明流动性因素和估值扩张（而非周期性宏观基本面）是全球股市上涨的主要推手[13] * **估值起点较低** MSCI中国指数基于市值加权和中位数股票的12个月共识市盈率分别为12.6倍和15.2倍 较10年均值偏离0.3和-0.4个标准差 A股小盘股（中证1000）绝对估值较高（23倍 偏离0.7个标准差）但较2015年历史市盈率峰值低50% 中国股票相对发达市场存在显著估值折让 与新兴市场 peers 大致持平 估值模型显示MSCI中国公平市盈率约为12.5倍 沪深300均衡市盈率可达15.8倍[18][24] * **A股市场情绪尚未达到狂热水平** 尽管交易数据惊人（上证综指处于10年高位 散户融资余额接近2015年2.3万亿元人民币的峰值 现金成交额连续12天超过2万亿元人民币） 但综合风险偏好指标显示投资者情绪虽近期改善 却远未达到2015年杠杆推动的飙升和2024年9月政策触发上涨时的狂热水平 若风险偏好回到2024年和2015年峰值 沪深300指数将分别交易于5180点和5870点（较当前+18%和+34%）[32][33] * **投资者持仓远未拥挤** 中国投资者是此轮牛市的主要资金提供者 但国内共同基金近几周才开始提高股票持仓 国内保险公司股票配置显著低于30%的法定上限 对冲基金和主动型基金全球范围内对中国股票的持仓仍顽固地低于历史区间或基准权重 表明持仓和配置存在上行潜力[34][38] * **资产再配置流动可能正在进行** 中国家庭对房地产过度暴露而对股票配置不足 资产向股票再配置的必要条件正逐渐具备 包括后疫情时代积累的55万亿元人民币超额家庭储蓄（部分定期存款即将到期）、房地产市场L型复苏不太可能被视为财富积累的主要投资工具、一系列公司治理和监管改革（特别是"九条措施"）提高了股票的投资吸引力和实际回报、反内卷运动有助于加强金融市场的再通胀预期从而降低实际收益率并驱动资金从债券轮动至股票[41] * **风险与历史教训** 历史上高估值本身很少标志流动性驱动牛市的转折点 而是政策冲击（如2015年去杠杆、2021年对开发商和民企的监管打压、2024年9月政策转向后的失望）导致牛市逆转 鉴于股市对经济的重要性增加（资源配置、为新的生产性增长动力融资、为家庭创造财富和正面情绪） 除非出现更明显的估值过高和投机猖獗证据 否则政策引发的股市下跌可能性较低[46] * **保持超配并关注阿尔法机会** 建议保持超配中国H股和A股 维持MSCI中国12个月目标90点（10%回报） 将沪深300目标上调至4900点（此前为4500点 12%上行空间） 强调阿尔法优于贝塔的偏好 重申看好中国民企（Prominent 10）、股东回报和部分反内卷受益者主题 超配TMT/互联网、消费服务、保险和材料行业以获取更好的风险回报[49] 其他重要但可能被忽略的内容 * 报告由高盛（亚洲）和高盛（新加坡）的分析师团队（Kinger Lau, Timothy Moe, Si Fu, Kevin Wang）撰写[4] * 包含大量图表数据支持论点 例如宏观活动指标（CAI）与市场表现的相关性、各行业盈利修正趋势、历史牛市行情关键指标对比、各类投资者对中国股票的持仓比例和配置水平、潜在资产再配置资金规模估算等[2][7][9][10][15][16][17][22][26][27][28][31][36][37][40][44][48][51] * 附录部分提供了基于模型的MSCI中国指数估值敏感性分析 列出了增长、政策利率、汇率/资金流、市场风险等多个变量变化对市盈率的潜在影响[52][53] * 文件包含详细的法律声明、披露附录和地区特定监管披露信息[55][56][57][58][59][60][61][62][63][64][65][66][67][68][69][70][71][72][73][74][75][76][77][78]

公司及行业 * 中远海运港口有限公司 (COSCO Shipping Ports Ltd, 1199 HK) [1] * 全球港口运营及集装箱码头行业 [1] 财务业绩 * 公司上半年净利润为1.82亿美元 同比增长31% 环比增长7% 超出市场预期 占全年预测的59% [1] * 第二季度净利润为9800万美元 同比增长28% 环比增长17% [1] * 公司宣布中期股息每股15.1港仙 派息比率维持在40% 年化股息收益率为5.5% [1] 业务表现与驱动因素 * 利润增长主要由海外码头驱动 海外码头利润增至5700万美元 同比大幅增长187% [1][2] * 中国内地码头利润保持基本稳定 同比增长1% [1][2] * 地中海地区利润领先 达3700万美元 同比增长150% 主要得益于比雷埃夫斯码头更高的堆存收入和吞吐量恢复 [2] * 欧洲地区利润增长强劲 达940万美元 同比增长297% 主要由CSP西班牙和CSP泽布吕赫码头在联盟重组背景下实现更高吞吐量驱动 [2][5] * 总吞吐量在上半年同比增长6% [7] * 中国国内码头中 珠三角地区吞吐量增长领先 同比增长7% 主要受益于盐田码头同比增长13% [7] * 海外码头吞吐量增长8% 泽布吕赫增长45% 苏伊士运河增长25% [7] 平均单箱收入与成本 * 中国附属码头平均单箱收入同比下降2% 部分原因是受美国关税上调影响 如南通港至美货量减少 [7] * 欧洲附属码头平均单箱收入维持同比增长10% 管理层归因于与船公司协商的更高 tariff、堆存收入及箱型结构变化 [1][7] * 附属公司息税前利润率基本稳定在17% [7] * 净利息支出下降14% 平均借贷成本降至4.7% [7] 资本支出与投资 * 上半年资本支出为1.6亿美元 其中1.34亿美元用于物业、厂房及设备 2600万美元用于投资 [7] * 2025年全年资本支出预算为7.9亿美元 其中6.14亿美元预算用于现有码头的物业、厂房及设备 其余用于股权投资 [7] * 目前正在进行的股权收购包括泰国林查邦码头和和记黄埔林查邦码头 预计于2025年9月完成 [7] 前景与指引 * 公司参考德路里对2025年全球吞吐量增长1.9%的预测作为指引 [1][7] * 基于此指引 预计第三季度吞吐量因去库存将同比下降0.8% 第四季度预计将进一步环比下降 [1][7] 投资观点与风险 * 投资评级为买入 12个月目标价为5.3港元 [6][9] * 目标价基于2025年预测净资产价值的分类加总估值法 [6] * 下行风险包括 全球贸易差于预期 海外并购执行不力 [6] * 看好公司的增长潜力 驱动因素包括 持续的港口 tariff 上调以向船公司转嫁通胀 母公司驱动的货量增长 海外扩张推动长期增长 [8] * 公司并购可能性评级为3 代表成为收购目标的可能性低 (0%-15%) [9][15]

公司：Eyebright (688050.SS) **财务业绩** * 1H25收入增长14.7% 但较Goldman Sachs (GSe)预期低1.3% [1] * 1H25净利润为2.13亿元人民币 同比增长2.5% 但较GSe预期低4.4% [1] * 第二季度收入同比增长2.5% 较第一季度的16.0%同比增幅显著放缓 [2] **分业务表现** * 人工晶体(IOL)销售额在1H25同比增长8.2% 此增长是在行业白内障手术量下降的背景下实现的 表明公司正在夺取市场份额 [1][2] * 角膜塑形镜(OK镜)销售额在1H25同比增长5.6% 公司尚未感受到北京自6月起指导价降价约50%的政策影响 但预计下半年增长将面临压力 [2] * 隐形眼镜(Contact lens)销售额在1H25同比增长28.9% 但与2H24相比相对持平 主要由于价格竞争 [2] **毛利率与产品结构** * 1H25毛利率稳定在65.3% (1Q25/2Q25分别为64.6%/65.8%) 带量采购(VBP)降价影响已体现 [6] * 公司通过增加高毛利率的双焦人工晶体(bifocal IOLs)销售来缓解VBP降价影响 VBP后双焦人工晶体的收入贡献占比在提升 [2][6] * 预计2025年毛利率将更高 因为低毛利率的隐形眼镜业务在下半年增长应会放缓 [6] **新产品与研发管线** * 公司在1H25获得了有晶体眼人工晶体(PIOL)产品(Loong Crystal)和硅水凝胶软性隐形眼镜的NMPA批准 [7] * 公司产品正逐步进入医院 但未披露任何销售数字 [2] * 预计将在2H25获得景深延长型人工晶体(EDoF IOL)批准 2026年获得三焦人工晶体(trifocal IOL)和彩色硅水凝胶软性隐形眼镜批准 [7] * 研发管线包含20款产品 覆盖眼科、医美和外科手术领域 [8] **预测与估值** * 将2025E/26E/27E净利润预测上调+2.8%/+2.3%/+1.6% 以反映毛利率高于预期和隐形眼镜销售增长放缓的综合影响 [8] * 维持买入评级和12个月目标价111元人民币 较当前股价76.05元有46.0%上行空间 [8][14] * 目标价基于两阶段DCF模型 假设第二阶段现金流增长率从11%逐步降至2% 终端增长率2% WACC为10% [12] 行业：眼科医疗器械 **行业趋势** * 白内障手术行业手术量出现下降 [1][2] * 人工晶体产品存在持续的高端化(premiumization)趋势 [1] * 角膜塑形镜(OK镜)面临政策风险 北京地区自6月起指导价降价约50% [2] * 隐形眼镜领域存在价格竞争 [2] **竞争格局** * Eyebright是中国领先的眼科器械制造商 2024年在人工晶体(IOL)和角膜塑形镜(OK镜)领域的销量份额分别为26%和15.6% [11] * 公司凭借强大的研发能力和积极的商业执行 正从跨国公司(MNCs)手中夺取份额 [11] **增长驱动** * 白内障手术市场的稳健增长由老龄化人口和人工晶体在国家级带量采购后的升级需求驱动 [11] * 公司额外的增长驱动来自其新兴产品管线 包括隐形眼镜、离焦镜片(defocus lens)和有晶体眼人工晶体(PIOL) [11] * 有晶体眼人工晶体(PIOL)的销售放量是2025E的关键催化剂 [11]

公司及行业 * 华兰生物工程股份有限公司（Hualan Biological Engineering，002007 SZ）[1] * 血浆制品行业[1] * 疫苗行业[1] 核心财务表现 * 公司2025年上半年收入为17 98亿元人民币，同比增长9%[1] * 净利润为5 16亿元人民币，同比增长17%[1] * 白蛋白收入6 96亿元人民币，同比增长8%[1] * 静注人免疫球蛋白（IVIG）收入4 53亿元人民币，同比下降1%[1] * 其他血浆制品收入5 88亿元人民币，同比增长15%[1] * 疫苗收入5700万元人民币，同比增长93%[1] * 白蛋白和静注人免疫球蛋白的单位售价均下降约5%[1] 业务运营与战略 * 公司持有40%股权的华兰基因（Hualan Gene）的贝伐珠单抗生物类似药获批，上半年收入5890万元人民币，但不并入上市公司报表[3] * 公司增长动力源于2022年和2024年分别新获批的7家和2家血浆站，这些站点正在扩大原材料供应[4][9] * 管理层强调其白蛋白和静注人免疫球蛋白的价格表现优于行业同行，且未面临库存压力[1] 行业动态与竞争格局 * 中国首个重组白蛋白（由Oryzogen生产）于2025年7月18日获批，但其适应症仅限于肝硬化引起的低白蛋白血症[2] * 管理层认为重组白蛋白对血浆来源白蛋白的近期影响有限[2] * 长期来看，公司预计人血白蛋白将保持固有的使用习惯和成本优势，不认为重组白蛋白会对行业构成重大威胁[2] * 血浆行业竞争加剧[1] 投资观点与估值 * 高盛维持对公司的买入评级，12个月目标价为19元人民币，较当前17 60元股价有8 0%上行空间[10][11] * 估值基于18 1倍的2025年预期每股收益退出市盈率，参考全球同行19倍市盈率 10%的5年盈利复合年增长率以及37 5%的A H股溢价[10] * 公司当前1年前瞻市盈率处于其过去5年历史的最低四分位[9] * 关键催化剂包括血浆制品需求的可持续增长以及中国流感疫苗的接种率[9] 风险因素 * 新临床指南对白蛋白处方使用实施更严格的控制[10] * 由于对生产商的监管限制大于经销商，静注人免疫球蛋白的出厂价涨幅远低于终端用户价格[10] * 应收账款天数增加可能导致资产减值[10] * 流感疫苗竞争加剧[10] 财务预测调整 * 高盛将公司2025年收入预测从50 735亿元人民币下调至48 433亿元人民币，下调幅度4 5%[8] * 2025年净利润预测从13 93亿元人民币微调至13 86亿元人民币，下调幅度0 5%[8] * 2026年收入预测从55 218亿元人民币下调至52 571亿元人民币，下调幅度4 8%[8] * 2026年净利润预测从14 75亿元人民币上调至15 02亿元人民币，上调幅度1 8%[8] * 2027年收入预测从58 802亿元人民币下调至55 891亿元人民币，下调幅度5 0%[8] * 2027年净利润预测从15 48亿元人民币上调至15 62亿元人民币，上调幅度0 9%[8] 其他重要内容 * 公司市值322亿元人民币（45亿美元）[11] * 企业价值315亿元人民币（44亿美元）[11] * 3个月平均日交易额2 867亿元人民币（4010万美元）[11] * 公司的并购可能性评级为3，即成为收购目标的可能性较低（0% 15%）[11][15]

公司及行业 * 公司为HG Tech (000988 SZ) 一家中国通信和电子设备制造商 主要产品包括光收发器 传感器 电信设备和激光工具[14] * 行业涉及光通信模块 特别是用于数据中心人工智能应用的高速光模块(如400G和800G)[1][7][14] 核心观点与论据 * 公司是中国国内AI光收发器增长的关键受益者 基于供应链调研 预计本地客户将从2025年第四季度至2026年第一季度开始从400G向800G迁移 这将驱动公司2026-27年的增长[1][7] * 800G产品在国内市场的毛利率超过20% 高于400G的低于20% 因此产品升级将带来更好的平均销售价格(ASP)和利润率[7] * 公司正在为北美客户进行800G LPO产品的认证阶段 若能在2026年进入大规模出货阶段 分析显示其净利润有高达28%的增量上行空间[1][2][4] * 此增量上行空间的测算基于泰国生产基地每月10万单位的满产产能 以及340美元的ASP和25%的净利率假设 年收入贡献可达4 08亿美元 增量净利润为1 02亿美元(约合7 45亿人民币)[2][3][4] * 基于对升级步伐更强的信心 研究报告将公司2026-27年收入预测上调1%~2% 净利润预测上调1%~5%[8][9] * 12个月目标价上调至71元人民币(原为62元) 依据是27倍2026年预期市盈率(原为24倍) 以反映更强的增长前景和利润率改善 此估值与本地同行(Eoptolink Innolight)的目标市盈率倍数(27/28倍2026年预期市盈率)一致 并处于公司历史平均市盈率(24倍)加一个标准差(28倍)的水平[8][11] 其他重要内容 * 公司的投资论点基于其向高端光收发器(800G和400G模块)的扩张 这应能推动利润率改善并加速2026-27年的净利润增长 当前估值处于其历史交易区间的低端 具有吸引力[14] * 主要下行风险包括 1) 400G 800G光收发器出货量增长慢于预期 2) 利润率低于预期 3) 地缘政治紧张和供应链中断[15] * 研究报告维持对公司的买入(Buy)评级[1][14]

涉及的公司与行业 * 公司：顺丰控股 (S.F. Holding, 002352.SZ/6936.HK) 与 嘉里物流 (Kerry Logistics, 0636.HK) [1] * 行业：综合物流、快递、货运代理、供应链管理 [1][9] 核心观点与论据 顺丰控股 (S.F. Holding) 2Q25 业绩与展望 * **收入符合预期，利润低于预期**：2Q25 收入同比增长 11% 至 770.08 亿人民币，符合预期，但剔除 10 亿人民币投资利得后的税前净利润为 25.77 亿人民币，低于高盛预期 13%，同比下降 3% [1][14] * **灵活定价策略推动市场份额增长**：为应对竞争，公司采取灵活定价策略，1H25 时效快递业务收入增长 7%，整体包裹量增长加速至 19% 同比，市场份额从 2H24 的 7.4% 扩大至 1H25 的 8.2% [2] * **利润率短期承压，长期改善可期**：2Q25 毛利率为 13.1% (低于高盛预期的 14.6%)，EBIT 利润率为 5.1% (低于高盛预期的 6.0%)，主因灵活定价策略，但运营效率提升部分抵消了影响；公司计划继续投资提升服务质量并维持灵活定价，预计短期毛利率仍有压力，但对 2026 年基于扩大的业务规模实现利润率改善充满信心 [3] * **供应链与国际业务韧性增长**：1H25 供应链与国际业务收入同比增长 10% (但低于高盛预期 2%)，尽管在关税不确定性下增长较 2H24 放缓，但该业务在中国企业出海的大趋势下展现韧性，公司拥有 107 架全货机、79 个清关服务口岸等增强的跨境多式联运能力；高盛预计其 2025 年该业务收入将增长 10% [4][9] * **强劲现金流支持股东回报**：公司宣布派发 25 亿人民币中期股息，派息率为 40%；1H25 资本开支（不含股权投资）同比下降 24% 至 42 亿人民币 (占总收入 2.9%，去年同期为 4.1%)，因鄂州航空货运枢纽等主要投资项目已于 2023 年基本完成；管理层预计 2025 年绝对资本开支将与 2024 年持平 (<100 亿人民币) [10] * **推出长期员工持股计划**：公司推出为期 9 年的“共同成长”员工持股计划，控股股东将无偿捐赠不超过 2 亿股 A 股 (约占已发行股本的 4%) [11] * **目标价与评级**：维持对顺丰 A/H 股的“买入”评级，A 股 12 个月目标价维持 57 元人民币 (基于 8 倍 2025 年 EV/EBITDA)，H 股目标价从 47 港元上调至 52 港元 (基于 7 倍 2025 年 EV/EBITDA，因 A/H 股折价收窄) [12] 嘉里物流 (Kerry Logistics) 展望与风险 * **评级与目标价**：维持对嘉里物流的“中性”评级，基于 SOTP 的 12 个月目标价从 8.3 港元上调至 9.0 港元，主要风险包括货运代理费率及地缘政治不确定性 [13] * **业绩预测调整**：基于 1H25 业绩，将 2025-27E 收入预测上调 6%，现预计 FY25/26E 收入同比增长 3%/3%，并将 2025-27E 核心净利润预测微调 4%-5%，因国际货运代理利润超预期 [28][29] * **关键风险**：包括顺丰与嘉里整合加速带来的利润率改善、全球贸易和商业活动强于预期、出售亏损业务带来现金流改善超预期、中国合同物流和/或东盟快递市场竞争缓和 [30] 财务数据与预测调整 (顺丰控股) * **2Q25 关键财务数据**：收入 770.08 亿人民币 (同比 +11%)，毛利润 101.22 亿人民币 (同比 +1%)，EBIT (高盛定义) 39.21 亿人民币 (同比 -3%)，归属于股东净利润 35.04 亿人民币 (同比 +21%)，税前净利润 25.77 亿人民币 (同比 +3%) [14][16] * **预测调整**：将 2025-27E 收入预测微调 0-1%，主要因供应链与国际业务收入增长更强劲；将 2025-27E 净利润预测下调 2%~0%，主因灵活定价策略；预计 2025E 集团收入增长 9% (不变)，3Q25 收入增长 10% [12][17] * **利润率展望**：预计 3Q25/FY25E 毛利率为 13.4%/13.3% (此前为 14.2%/14.1%)，净利率为 3.8%/3.7% (此前为 4.1%/3.8%) [3] 其他重要内容 * **行业竞争与定价**：数据显示主要快递公司 (如中通、韵达、圆通、申通等) 的日均包裹量和单票收入同比变化，反映了行业内的价格竞争态势 [26][27] * **风险提示**：对顺丰的关键风险包括 prolonged price competition ( prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price 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公司：地平线（Horizon Robotics, 9660 HK） 核心财务表现 * 公司1H25收入优于预期 同比增长68% 环比增长8% 达到16亿人民币 比高盛预估和彭博共识分别高出6%和9%[1][3] * 1H25毛利率为65.4% 2Q25毛利率为65.1%[3][7] * 1H25营业亏损为18.55亿人民币 高于预期 主因算法训练的云服务费用增加导致运营开支超预期 达到14亿人民币[1][3] * 1H25净亏损为52.33亿人民币 远高于高盛预估的13.59亿亏损 主因一项可转换贷款的公允价值变动产生非营业亏损[3][7] * 高盛将公司2025E/2026E净亏损预测下调至88亿人民币/32亿人民币（原预测为27亿/3.56亿）以反映该非营业亏损[7] 产品与业务进展 * 公司Journey 6产品出货量爬坡推动收入增长及平均售价（ASP）提升[1][3] * 1H25具备高速导航辅助驾驶（highway NOA）功能的产品出货量达98万台 占总出货量的50% 推动混合ASP提升[1] * 公司计划于2H25E在奇瑞星纪元（Chery Xingjiyuan）车型上开始量产HSD（Horizon SuperDrive）解决方案 该方案由J6P大算力平台（560 TOPS）驱动 可实现城市导航辅助驾驶（urban NOA）功能[1][2] * 管理层预计HSD和J6P平台将在2026年放量 并对J6P带来的更高ASP和单車价值提升持乐观态度[2] * 高盛看好公司的软硬件集成解决方案能提升单車价值含量 并为客户提供满足上市时间需求的一站式解决方案[2] 财务预测与估值 * 高盛基于2029E EV/EBITDA倍数26.0x（基于同行EBITDA增长与交易倍数的相关性得出）并采用11.5%的股权成本（COE）折现回2026E 将12个月目标价上调至14.00港元（原为13.13港元）[8][14] * 高盛维持对公司的买入（Buy）评级 当前股价7.94港元对应76.3%的上涨空间[16] * 高盛小幅上调2027E-2030E净收入预测各1% 主要基于J6P大算力平台收入更高以及向更多车型加速渗透的预期[7] * 由于股本数量更新 高盛将2027E-2030E的每股收益（EPS）预测上调各10%[7] 风险因素 * 面临的主要下行风险包括：竞争比预期更激烈或汽车供应链在需求疲软下面临定价压力 向高级别自动驾驶（AD）的产品组合升级慢于预期 客户群扩张慢于预期 以及地缘政治紧张局势带来的供应链风险[15] 其他重要信息 * 高盛在過去12个月内曾为地平线提供投资银行服务并收取报酬 并预期在未来3个月内寻求此类报酬[25] * 报告包含法规要求的披露信息 指出高盛可能与本报告所涉公司存在业务关系从而产生利益冲突[5][25]

公司信息 * 公司为深圳科士达科技（Shenzhen Kstar Science & Tech，股票代码002518.SZ）[1] * 公司专注于电力转换技术，为数据中心和储能系统提供稳定电力供应，其不间断电源（UPS）产品在中国出货量领先超过20年[22] 核心财务表现与预测 * **2Q25业绩**：营收12.19亿元人民币（+15% YoY），毛利润3.5亿元（+7% YoY），EBIT 1.41亿元（+82% YoY），净利润1.44亿元（+70% YoY），业绩基本符合预期[1] * **2Q25利润率**：毛利率29%（-2pp YoY），营业利润率12%（+4pp YoY），净利润率12%（+4pp YoY）[1] * **全年预测（高盛）**：预计2025年营收50.523亿元（+21.5% YoY），净利润6.48亿元（+64.4% YoY），EPS 1.11元[4] * **未来增长**：预计2026年营收63.381亿元（+25.4% YoY），2027年营收74.593亿元（+17.7% YoY）[4] * **盈利预测上调**：将2025E-2030E平均净利润预测上调7%，以反映强劲的数据中心需求、海外扩张潜力和储能增长复苏[19] 业务分部表现与展望 * **数据中心产品**： * 1H25销售额13.29亿元（+8% YoY），2Q25订单增长超20%[2] * 公司目标2025年该板块销售额增长15%-20%，隐含2H25需增长21%-30%[2] * 对2026年在中国、东南亚和欧洲的增长前景持乐观态度，并有可能进入北美供应链[2] * **储能系统（ESS）**： * 1H25销售额2.65亿元（+80% YoY），基数较低[17] * 公司目标2025年ESS销售额实现翻倍增长（对比高盛预测的80% YoY）[17] * 1H25毛利率约20%，主要受前期采购的高成本电芯影响，管理层预计在2025年9月清空高成本库存后，毛利率将恢复至25%以上的正常水平[17] * **太阳能逆变器**： * 1H25销售额4.5亿元（+5% YoY）[18] * 国内需求逆风可能影响2H25业务，海外贡献仍较小，该板块盈利能力较低（毛利率约20%），预计不会对整体盈利产生重大拖累[18] 市场扩张与客户进展 * **海外市场**：1H25海外销售贡献数据中心板块约55%的销售额（+8% YoY），主要受东南亚和欧洲驱动[2] * **北美机会**：正与一家UPS品牌商合作，就其为北美AI数据中心的高功率UPS产品进行潜在ODM业务，最早于4Q25可能带来1000万至1亿元人民币的初始销售贡献[2] * **东南亚需求**：在东南亚地区看到强劲的UPS需求，并正在增加在马来西亚等地的人员[2] * **国内客户**：1H25国内销售贡献数据中心板块约45%（+8% YoY），客户包括阿里巴巴、字节跳动、万国数据、世纪互联和京东等[20] * **字节跳动项目**：在1H25成为其合格UPS供应商后，目前正为其一个小型数据中心项目供应产品，预计在2025年底获得更多有意义的订单[20] 利润率与运营指标 * **数据中心毛利率**：1H25毛利率下降至33.3%（对比1H24的35.8%和2H24的34.6%），主要因客户结构变化，国内/云公司订单的毛利率通常较低（但仍高于30%）[20] * **财务健康度**：预计2025年净负债权益比为-11.6%，呈现净现金状态，利息覆盖率达105.4倍[9] * **回报率**：预计2025年ROE为14.1%，2026年提升至16.5%[9] 产品研发与创新 * **新产品开发**：400V高压直流（HVDC）产品正处于内部测试阶段，计划在3Q-4Q25推出[20] * **前沿研发**：正在进行固态变压器（SST）的早期研发[20] 投资建议与风险 * **评级与目标价**：维持“买入”评级，12个月目标价上调至35.3元人民币（原为30.9元），基于24倍2026年预期市盈率（原为22倍），以反映其更高的增长前景（2026E-2030E收益复合年增长率17% vs 原15%）和回报 profile（2026E-2030E平均ROE 18% vs 原14%）[19] * **下行风险**：1) 数据中心收入增长低于预期；2) 新能源业务收入前景低于预期；3) 新能源业务利润率低于预期[19][23] 其他重要信息 * **股价表现**：过去12个月绝对回报率达150.5%，相对于沪深300指数的超额回报为84.4%[12] * **并购可能性**：高盛给予公司的M&A Rank为3，代表其成为收购目标的概率较低（0%-15%）[4][28]

公司业绩与财务表现 * 公司报告1H25销售额152亿元人民币，同比增长7.6%，净利润39亿元人民币，同比增长13.3%[1] * 2Q25销售额69亿元人民币，同比增长7.0%，净利润17亿元人民币，同比增长11.6%，净利润率24.8%，同比提升1个百分点[1] * 2Q25经营现金流（OCF）为19.6亿元人民币，同比增长16.7%[8] * 首次宣布中期股息，现金分红15亿元人民币，派息率约39%[1] 产品表现 * 2Q25调味品整体销售额增长10.6%，1H25增长10.5%[1] * 分产品看，2Q25酱油/其他酱类/蚝油/其他调味品销售额分别增长10.3%/9.6%/9.8%/12.7%，达到35.08亿/7.13亿/11.43亿/12.17亿元人民币[1][2] * 非调味品收入因公司生产效率提升导致废料/材料销售减少而下降[2] * 1H25酱油/蚝油/复合调味品毛利率分别达到48.1%/35.9%/44.1%，同比提升3.9/2.8/6.7个百分点[1] 渠道与区域表现 * 2Q25线下/线上渠道销售额分别增长9%/35%，达到61.55亿/4.25亿元人民币，线上销售占比从2Q24的5.3%提升至6.5%[1][5] * 分区域看，2Q25北部/南部/东部/中部/西部分别增长10.8%/11.3%/12.8%/10.5%/6.0%，达到11.64亿/14.54亿/12.20亿/14.19亿/8.23亿元人民币[5] 盈利能力与成本 * 2Q25整体毛利率同比扩张3.9个百分点，主要受酱油和复合调味品毛利率扩张推动，得益于成本顺风（cost tailwinds）和效率提升[1] * 2Q25调味品毛利率同比提升2.8个百分点[1] * 2Q25实际税率15.8%，高于预期的15.4%，同比提升0.8个百分点[8] 行业背景与风险 * 公司业绩是在餐饮零售疲软、受负面政策影响的背景下取得的，餐饮零售额在6月/7月仅增长0.9%/1.1%[1] * 关键风险包括餐饮销售复苏慢于预期、行业竞争加剧、原材料成本波动、食品质量和负面宣传[10] * 上行风险包括业务改革成功驱动销售增长超预期、2B业务增长强于预期、成本通缩带来的收益[10] 员工持股计划与目标 * 公司公布了覆盖2024-28年的员工持股计划（ESOP）2025年关键绩效指标（KPI），2025年净利润目标为同比增长不低于10.8%[1] 股票评级与估值 * 对H股维持买入（Buy）评级，其2026年预期市盈率为23倍，较A股（中性评级）存在约22%的折价[1] * A股12个月目标价40.4元人民币，基于31.0倍2026年预期市盈率[9] * H股12个月目标价43.0港元，基于30.4倍2026年预期市盈率，并参考比亚迪/美的过去3个月平均折价给予A股估值2%的折让[9]

涉及的行业和公司 * 公司为海尔智家股份有限公司（Haier Smart Home Co.），A股代码600690.SS，同时也在香港上市[1][6][14] * 行业为家用电器（白色家电）行业，涉及冰箱、洗衣机、空调等产品[4][6][7] 核心财务表现 * 公司上半年总收入1560亿人民币，同比增长10%，第二季度收入773.76亿人民币，同比增长10%，与预期一致[1][5] * 公司上半年净利润120亿人民币，同比增长16%，第二季度净利润65.46亿人民币，同比增长16%，超出预期4.1%[1][5] * 经营现金流在第二季度同比增长45%[1] * 公司宣布首次中期股息每股0.27人民币，相当于中期每股收益的21%派息率[1] 各市场增长情况 * 国内与海外市场均实现强劲增长，上半年同比增速分别为9%和12%[4] * 在国内市场，高端品牌卡萨帝（Casarte）和Leader增长迅速，上半年增速分别超过20%和15%[4] * 在海外市场，欧洲、南亚和东南亚地区引领增长，上半年实现双位数百分比（DD%）增长，美洲市场增长2%，超越行业水平[4] * 按产品划分，空调增长最快，上半年同比增长13%，洗衣机和冰箱分别增长8%和4%[4] 利润率与运营效率 * 上半年毛利率为26.9%，按同口径比较提升0.1个百分点，得益于成本削减、产品组合优化和效率提升[4] * 销售费用率下降0.1个百分点，支持了营业利润率的扩张[4] * 国内外业务利润率均有所扩大，所有主要家电品类的分部利润率在上半年均实现提升[4] 投资主题与估值 * 投资论点基于公司在国内冰箱和洗衣机市场的领导地位及其高端品牌卡萨帝[6] * 看好的理由包括：1）凭借市场份额增长（尤其在空调等落后产品）和高端化趋势，国内增长具韧性；2）海外需求改善和外汇顺风可缓解竞争对手的折扣影响；3）通过国内外高端品牌改善产品组合以及国内运营效率提升，利润率有持续改善潜力[6] * 12个月目标价A股为31人民币/H股为31港币，基于14倍2027年预期市盈率并以9.5%折现回2026年[7] * 当前估值低于历史中位数，提供有吸引力的风险回报[6] 潜在风险 * 全球宏观经济疲软导致白色家电需求不及预期[7] * 原材料成本上升[7] * 营销/渠道费用节省效果不佳[7] * 未能成功整合Candy并实现收购协同效应[7] 其他重要内容 * 管理层将于8月29日举行业绩电话会议，投资者关注点包括：近期销售趋势、2025年国内外（尤其是美国）家电需求展望、国内增长动力（以旧换新政策提振作用减弱后）、近期大宗商品价格和美国关税下的利润率展望、产品与品牌战略（尤其是卡萨帝）更新、欧洲运营变革及其他海外国家业务战略更新[2] * 高盛与公司存在投资银行业务关系，并在过去12个月内获得报酬[15]