核心观点 - 华尔街预计西部数据在截至2024年12月的季度财报中将实现收入和盈利的同比增长 公司股价可能因实际业绩与预期的对比而波动 [1][2] 财务预期 - 西部数据预计季度每股收益为1.75美元 同比增长353.6% 预计收入为42.8亿美元 同比增长41.1% [3] - 过去30天内 季度每股收益的共识预期下调了8.27% 反映了分析师对初始预期的重新评估 [4] 盈利预测模型 - Zacks盈利ESP模型通过比较最准确预期与共识预期来预测盈利偏差 最准确预期是分析师在财报发布前的最新预测 [5][6] - 正盈利ESP理论上表明实际盈利可能高于共识预期 但模型的预测能力仅对正ESP显著 [7] - 正盈利ESP与Zacks排名1-3的组合在70%的情况下能产生正盈利惊喜 且Zacks排名增强了盈利ESP的预测能力 [8] - 负盈利ESP并不一定意味着盈利未达预期 但难以预测盈利惊喜 [9] 西部数据的盈利预期 - 西部数据的最准确预期低于共识预期 盈利ESP为-0.19% 表明分析师近期对公司盈利前景持悲观态度 [10][11] - 公司当前Zacks排名为4 结合负盈利ESP 难以预测其将超越共识预期 [11] 历史盈利表现 - 西部数据在过去四个季度中均超越了共识每股收益预期 最近一个季度实际每股收益为1.78美元 超出预期2.30% [12][13] 股价影响因素 - 盈利惊喜或未达预期并非股价波动的唯一因素 其他因素也可能导致股价下跌或上涨 [14] - 尽管西部数据当前不具备明显的盈利惊喜潜力 但投资者仍需关注其他可能影响股价的因素 [16]

文章核心观点 文章介绍西部数据2025财年第二季度初步财务结果、面临的问题和股价表现，并推荐几只排名较好的科技股 [1][2][6] 西部数据2025财年第二季度初步财务情况 - 公司预计本财季营收处于此前发布的42 - 44亿美元指引中点 [2] - 非GAAP摊薄每股收益可能处于此前1.75 - 2.05美元指引低端，反映闪存业务定价环境更具挑战性 [2] 西部数据过往业务表现 - 上一季度闪存营收同比增长21%，环比增长7%，企业级SSD产品需求上升受数据中心持续复苏推动 [3] 西部数据面临的问题 - 客户集中度高，2024财年前十大客户占净营收39% [4] - 资产负债表存在杠杆，截至2024年9月27日，现金及现金等价物17.1亿美元，长期债务（含流动部分）74亿美元 [4] - 面临希捷、日立、三星、英特尔等存储市场竞争对手及美光等SSD专业公司的激烈竞争，可能导致平均售价下降，影响业绩 [5] - 硬盘市场竞争激烈，受供需波动影响有定价压力，平板电脑制造商选择闪存卡可能迫使硬盘公司降价，损害利润率 [5] 西部数据排名与股价表现 - 目前Zacks排名为5（强烈卖出） [6] - 过去六个月股价下跌11%，而行业下跌24.7% [6] 推荐的科技股 - 推荐InterDigital、NetApp和Intrusion，分别为Zacks排名1（强烈买入）和2（买入） [9] - InterDigital 2024年每股收益共识估计为15.19美元，过去30天未变，过去四个季度均超预期，平均惊喜率163.7%，长期盈利增长率15%，过去六个月股价上涨39.3% [10] - NetApp过去四个季度均超预期，平均惊喜率6.53%，过去一年股价上涨37.8% [11] - Intrusion过去四个季度均超预期，平均惊喜率43.06%，上一季度盈利惊喜率16.67%，过去六个月股价上涨75% [12]

公司动态 - 公司周四发布多项更新 包括第四季度业绩及CFO离职消息 [1] - 现任CFO Wissam Jabre将于2月28日退休 公司拆分闪存和硬盘业务后将寻找新CFO [1] - 此前宣布Jabre拆分后将担任硬盘业务CFO 与CEO Irving Tan共事 [2] 业绩预期 - 预计2025财年第二季度营收在42 - 44亿美元指引区间中点 调整后每股收益在1.75 - 2.05美元指引区间低端 [3] - 业绩下滑归因于NAND定价环境比预期更具挑战性 [3] - 摩根大通分析师Harlan Sur预计第二季度营收42.5亿美元 每股收益1.75美元 [13] - Cantor Fitzgerald分析师C J Muse预计第二季度营收41.8亿美元 每股收益1.72美元 [7] 行业趋势 - NAND定价疲软 因12月初提到库存水平高 个人电脑、智能手机和零售需求低迷 [9] - 9月季度NAND定价和需求趋势有望改善 因库存减少 边缘AI设备推动采购 [10] - 上半年eSSD出货量暂时停滞 但数据中心对存储需求增长 利于长期增长和利润率提升 [12] 股价表现 - 周五最后一次检查时 公司股价上涨2% 报65.54美元 [14] 机构评级 - Cantor Fitzgerald分析师C J Muse重申增持评级 目标价95美元 [11] - 摩根大通分析师Harlan Sur未给出评级 [11] - 巴克莱分析师Tom O'Malley维持增持评级 目标价从90美元降至80美元 [11] - 基准分析师Mark Miller重申持有评级 [11] - 美银维持买入评级 目标价从80美元升至84美元 [11] - 摩根士丹利分析师Joseph Moore维持买入评级 目标价93美元 [11]

公司业绩预期 - 即将公布的财报预计每股收益1.87美元，同比增长371.01%，营收42.8亿美元，同比增长41.08% [1] - 整个财年，预计每股收益7.14美元，营收166.4亿美元，分别较上一年变化+3670%和+27.99% [7] 分析师预期变化 - 近期分析师对公司的预期有变化，积极的预期修正预示公司业务前景良好 [2] - 过去30天，共识每股收益预测下降4.52% [3] 评级情况 - 公司目前Zacks排名为5（强烈卖出） [3] - 公司目前远期市盈率为8.5，低于行业平均的13.61，处于折价交易 [9] 股价表现 - 最新交易时段，公司股价收于59.62美元，较前一日收盘价调整-1.78%，表现逊于标普500、道指和纳斯达克指数 [6] - 过去一个月，公司股价下跌16.84%，不及计算机与科技板块涨幅和标普500跌幅 [11] 行业情况 - 计算机存储设备行业属于计算机与科技板块，目前Zacks行业排名218，处于所有250多个行业的后14% [4] - Zacks行业排名通过确定组成行业的个股平均Zacks排名来评估行业实力，研究显示排名前50%的行业表现是后50%的两倍 [10]

文章核心观点 投资者做股票买卖决策常参考华尔街分析师建议 但券商分析师评级受自身利益影响有偏差 不应仅据此投资 而Zacks Rank基于盈利预测修正 能及时反映股价走势 可结合两者做投资决策 [1][2][7] 券商评级情况 - 券商对所覆盖股票评级有强烈积极偏差 每一个“强力卖出”建议对应五个“强力买入”建议 [2] - 西部数据当前平均券商评级（ABR）为1.57 基于21家券商实际建议计算得出 近似于“强力买入”和“买入”之间 [17] - 构成当前ABR的21条建议中 15条为“强力买入” 占比71.4% [6] ABR与Zacks Rank差异 - ABR仅基于券商建议计算 通常显示为小数 Zacks Rank是定量模型 显示为1 - 5的整数 [15] - ABR不一定及时更新 Zacks Rank能快速反映分析师盈利预测修正 及时指示未来股价走势 [10] - Zacks Rank不同等级按比例应用于所有券商分析师提供当年盈利预测的股票 始终在五个等级间保持平衡 [16] 西部数据盈利预测及评级 - 分析师对西部数据盈利前景悲观 一致下调每股收益预期 可能导致股价近期暴跌 [5] - 过去一个月 西部数据当前年度Zacks共识预期下降4.5% 至7.14美元 [11] - 由于共识预期近期变化幅度及其他三个盈利预测相关因素 西部数据Zacks评级为5（强力卖出） [18] 投资建议 - 仅依据ABR做投资决策可能不佳 券商建议在指导投资者选择有价格上涨潜力股票方面成功率低 [7] - 可利用ABR验证Zacks Rank 以做出盈利投资决策 [14] - 对西部数据近似“买入”的ABR应持谨慎态度 [18]

公司 * **公司名称**： Western Digital Corporation (NASDAQ:WDC) * **参与人员**： David Goeckeler - CEO, Wissam Jabre - EVP and CFO * **会议主题**： 公司业务分离、财务状况、市场趋势和未来展望 * **会议时间**： 2024年12月12日 12:15 PM ET * **会议地点**： Barclays 22nd Annual Global Technology Conference 核心观点和论据 * **业务分离**： 公司正在推进将业务分为两个独立公司，其中闪存业务将通过融资独立运营。这一过程预计将在2025年完成。 * **财务状况**： 公司预计2025年将面临一些波动，但长期来看对业务前景持乐观态度。 * **市场趋势**： 公司认为，NAND市场需要更加注重实际需求，而不是过度依赖弹性。公司正在采取措施提高盈利能力，包括优化产品组合、提高研发投入和加强品牌建设。 * **技术发展**： 公司在NAND和HDD领域都取得了技术突破，包括NAND的wafer bonding技术和HDD的ePMR和UltraSMR技术。 * **竞争**： 公司认为自己在NAND和HDD市场都拥有强大的竞争力，并正在积极应对来自竞争对手的挑战。 其他重要内容 * **NAND市场**： 公司预计NAND市场将在2025年实现高个位数增长，并认为自己在企业级SSD市场拥有良好的增长潜力。 * **HDD市场**： 公司认为HDD市场将继续增长，并预计HDD和SSD将在AI应用中发挥互补作用。 * **成本控制**： 公司正在采取措施降低成本，包括优化供应链管理和提高生产效率。 * **投资者关系**： 公司将定期与投资者沟通，并分享公司的最新进展。 引用原文 * [序号1]： "Western Digital Corporation (NASDAQ:WDC) Barclays 22nd Annual Global Technology Conference" * [序号2]： "We're happy to be here." * [序号3]： "The Form-10 finally is out." * [序号4]： "To read all of it." * [序号5]： "I had some people to help me out there. I think that the most interesting thing that people paid attention to in advance and kind of now have a little more clarity to is the operating profit of the two businesses." * [序号6]： "I think that's a good way to start." * [序号7]： "We'll be making forward looking statements in today's discussion based on management's current assumptions and expectations..." * [序号8]： "Please refer to our most recent financial report on Form 10-K and our other filings with the SEC for more information on the risk and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations." * [序号9]： "Now we can get into it. Did you have any questions?" * [序号10]： "Revenue split relatively evenly between the two businesses as we've known, but profitability, you get a view of the flash business in general. Can you talk about efforts that can be made on the flash side over the course of the next year, where you can see that increasing profitability?" * [序号11]： "We announced this back on October 30 last year. We were kind of putting a pin in the end of this calendar year, and to be ready to go through this separation." * [序号12]： "We feel really good about where it's at. We've gotten a lot of questions on, is this going to be timed of where we are in the cycle or where the market's at? That's not what we're doing. This is like long-term strategy." * [序号13]： "We've been executing as two separate companies. It's gone quite well, very smooth." * [序号14]： "We've been executing smoothly. We're basically doing a dry run for our systems, our processes, the ability to sort of operate two separate companies under one umbrella." * [序号15]： "We're expecting a few choppy quarters here. We're kind of in a mid cycle point in the business." * [序号16]： "We're not done yet. We'll see how it all adds up in the end." * [序号17]： "We think the business needs to be managed differently. I mean, this idea that there is perpetual 30% growth that we're all supplying into is not realistic." * [序号18]： "We were a big believer that this idea of the layers race is over, like let's build the largest stacks, most expensive CapEx intensity NAND we can and just put that in the market. Let the market absorb it." * [序号19]： "We've got, we believe as a business we've got scale where it really matters." * [序号20]： "We have scale of R&D as the largest provider in the market. That means we can invest more engineers, as many engineers as anybody in the market to build the best core product." * [序号21]： "We're very optimistic on the setup of the business as we go through '25." * [序号22]： "We have a positive bias on PC is coming back. We have a positive bias on smartphones coming back. We think the data center eSSD has legs throughout the year." * [序号23]： "If we see two, three quarter of this and we're going to see this kind of choppy, more headwinds than we expected, then we'll look at the production side of the business." * [序号24]： "So this concept of utilization is very complex, right, because there's a nodal mix and how fast you move the nodal mix forward..." * [序号25]： "We're excited about the portfolio. We've been working on this for a while." * [序号26]： "We've been making progress on that. We entered the year thinking that we would have about 10% of our bit shipments by the end of the fiscal year being an enterprise SSD." * [序号27]： "The vast majority of what you'll call bulk storage of what gets stored, of what we all produce on a daily basis of content is going to be stored on HDDs, right?" * [序号28]： "And when you store a tremendous amount of data, it is worth you going through that arbitrage to figure out what I should store on HDD and what I should store on flash, right?" * [序号29]： "And as the world produces more data and more and data becomes more valuable, like I'm seeing a lot more now just in the last month about people are running out of data to train their large language models." * [序号30]： "And so this -- it's a virtuous cycle we put out another piece of work, the AI data cycle that kind of decomposes this." * [序号31]： "So I realized I didn't answer the second part of your question. Is the enterprise SSD demand coming from returning enterprise or AI?" * [序号32]： "We've been stating our approach, our strategy for quite some time now that we do intend to continue to build our road map on ePMR and UltraSMR out in the high 30s terabyte." * [序号33]： "And we have line of sight to continue to develop that technology and their road map into the high 30s until we get to that sort of 40-terabyte point, where we think the intersection with HAMR from a technology and from, more importantly, from an economics perspective, starts making sense." * [序号34]： "And we have managed to continue to drive better margins because we're manufacturing on technology that's very well proven, that can be manufactured at very high scale, that is very highly reliable and where we understand the cost structure really, really well." * [序号35]： "And I think that was a really smart strategy. I think it's worked very well." * [序号36]： "And I think that was a really smart strategy. I think it's worked very well." * [序号37]： "And I think that was a really smart strategy. I think it's worked very well." * [序号38]： "And I think that was a really smart strategy. I think it's worked very well." * [序号39]： "And I think that was a really smart strategy. I think it's worked very well." * [序号40]： "And I think that was a really smart strategy. I think it's worked very well." * [序号41]： "And I think that was a really smart strategy. I think it's worked very well." * [序号42]： "And I think that was a really smart strategy. I think it's worked very well." * [序号43]： "And I think that was a really smart strategy. I think it's worked very well." * [序号44]： "And I think that was a really smart strategy. I think it's worked very well." * [序号45]： "And I think that was a really smart strategy. I think it's worked very well." * [序号46]： "And I think that was a really smart strategy. I think it's worked very well." * [序号47]： "And I think that was a really smart strategy. I think it's worked very well." * [序号48]： "And I think that was a really smart strategy. I think it's worked very well." * [序号49]： "And I think that was a really smart strategy. I think it's worked very well." * [序号50]： "And I think that was a really smart strategy. I think it's worked very well." * [序号51]： "And I think that was a really smart strategy. I think it's worked very well." * [序号52]： "And I think that was a really smart strategy. I think it's worked very well." * [序号53]： "And I think that was a really smart strategy. I think it's worked very well." * [序号54]： "And I think that was a really smart strategy. I think it's worked very well." * [序号55]： "And I think that was a really smart strategy. I think it's worked very well." * [序号56]： "And I think that was a really smart strategy. I think it's worked very well." * [序号57]： "And I think that was a really smart strategy. I think it's worked very well." * [序号58]： "And I think that was a really smart strategy. I think it's worked very well." * [序号59]： "And I think that was a really smart strategy. I think it's worked very well." * [序号60]： "And I think that was a really smart strategy. I think it's worked very well." * [序号61]： "And I think that was a really smart strategy. I think it's worked very well." * [序号62]： "And I think that was a really smart strategy. I think it's worked very well." * [序号63]： "And I think that was a really smart strategy. I think it's worked very well." * [序号64]： "And I think that was a really smart strategy. I think it's worked very well." * [序号65]： "And I think that was a really smart strategy. I think it's worked very well." * [序号66]： "And I think that was a really smart strategy. I think it's worked very well."

文章核心观点 富国银行举办第8届年度TMT峰会电话会议，西部数据闪存业务执行副总裁Rob Soderbery参会，会议将探讨业务拆分进展等内容 [1] 会议基本信息 - 会议名称为富国银行第8届年度TMT峰会电话会议 [1] - 时间为2024年12月4日下午12:30（美国东部时间） [1] - 公司参会人员为闪存业务执行副总裁Rob Soderbery [1] - 电话会议参会人员为富国银行证券的Aaron Rakers [1] 会议相关说明 - 会议讨论将包含基于管理层当前假设和预期的前瞻性陈述，涉及业务拆分、产品组合、业务计划和业绩、市场趋势和动态以及未来财务结果等内容 [2] - 会议还会提及非GAAP财务指标，GAAP和非GAAP结果的对账可在公司网站上找到 [3]

文章核心观点 文章围绕西部数据公司展开，介绍其股价表现、盈利预测、分析师预测变化、评级及估值等情况，为投资者提供投资参考 [1][2][6][7] 股价表现 - 最新收盘价73.43美元，较前一日上涨0.6%，跑赢标普500当日涨幅0.25%，道指下跌0.29%，纳斯达克指数上涨0.97% [1] - 过去一个月股价上涨10.79%，超过计算机和技术板块0.06%及标普500指数3.51%的涨幅 [1] 盈利预测 - 即将发布的财报预计每股收益1.91美元，较去年同期增长376.81%，预计营收43亿美元，同比增长41.8% [2] - 年度预计每股收益7.32美元，营收167.4亿美元，较去年分别增长3760%和28.74% [3] 分析师预测 - 投资者应关注分析师对西部数据预测的近期变化，积极的预测修正对公司业务前景是好迹象 [4] - 过去一个月，Zacks共识每股收益预测无变化，目前公司Zacks排名为3（持有） [6] 估值情况 - 公司远期市盈率为9.97，行业平均为13.31，公司股价较行业有折价 [7] - 计算机存储设备行业属于计算机和技术板块，Zacks行业排名79，处于所有250多个行业前32% [7]

文章核心观点 - 投资者决策常依赖分析师建议，但券商评级有偏差，结合Zacks Rank评级工具能辅助做出更有利投资决策 [1][4][7] 券商对西部数据的评级情况 - 西部数据平均券商评级（ABR）为1.48，接近强力买入和买入之间，基于21家券商实际建议计算得出 [2] - 21条建议中16条为强力买入，占比76.2% [2] 券商评级的可靠性 - 券商评级指导投资者选择有价格上涨潜力股票的成功率低，因券商对所覆盖股票有既得利益，分析师评级有强烈正向偏差 [4][5] - 券商机构利益与散户投资者不一致，难以洞察股票未来价格走势 [6] Zacks Rank评级工具 - Zacks Rank将股票分为5组，从强力买入到强力卖出，是预测股票短期价格表现的可靠指标，结合ABR有助于做出盈利投资决策 [7] - Zacks Rank与ABR不同，ABR仅基于券商建议计算，有小数；Zacks Rank是量化模型，利用盈利预测修正，显示为整数 [8] - 券商分析师建议常过于乐观，而Zacks Rank核心是盈利预测修正，与短期股价走势强相关，且各等级在所有股票中按比例分配 [9][10] - ABR可能不及时，而Zacks Rank能快速反映分析师盈利预测修正，预测股价及时 [11] 西部数据投资分析 - 西部数据当前年度Zacks共识估计过去一个月维持在7.32美元不变，分析师对公司盈利前景看法稳定，短期内股价可能与大盘表现一致 [12] - 近期共识估计变化幅度及其他三个盈利预测相关因素使西部数据获Zacks Rank 3（持有）评级，对其相当于买入的ABR需谨慎 [13]

文章核心观点 - 投资者长期以来将芯片股票视为高度周期性的投资，因此不值得给予与市场其他部分相同的估值倍数 这种负面看法在2024年仍然存在 [1] 分析师背景 - 分析师Gary Alexander在华尔街和硅谷拥有覆盖科技公司的经验，并担任多家种子轮初创公司的外部顾问 他对塑造当前行业趋势的许多主题有深入了解 自2017年以来，他一直是Seeking Alpha的定期撰稿人，并在许多网络出版物中被引用，其文章被分发到Robinhood等流行交易应用的公司页面 [1] 分析师披露 - 分析师持有西部数据（WDC）股票的长期受益头寸，包括通过股票所有权、期权或其他衍生品 分析师撰写本文表达个人观点，未接受除Seeking Alpha以外的任何补偿，与本文提及股票的公司无业务关系 [2] Seeking Alpha披露 - 过去的表现不能保证未来的结果 本文不构成任何投资的建议或意见 上述观点可能不代表Seeking Alpha的整体观点 Seeking Alpha不是持牌证券交易商、经纪人或美国投资顾问或投资银行 其分析师包括专业投资者和未获任何机构或监管机构许可或认证的个人投资者 [3]