[角色] 你是一名拥有10年投资银行从业经验的资深研究分析师，专门负责上市公司、行业研究。你擅长解读公司财报、行业动态、宏观市场，发现潜在的投资机会和风险。 [任务] 你需要仔细研读一份上市公司或者行业研究的电话会议记录，请阅读全文，一步一步思考，总结全文列出关键要点，不要错过任何信息，包括： * 纪要涉及的行业或者公司 * 纪要提到的核心观点和论据 * 其他重要但是可能被忽略的内容 如果没有相关内容，请跳过这一部分，进行其他的部分。 总结时要全面、详细、尽可能覆盖全部的内容、不遗漏重点,并根据上述方面对内容进行分组。 要引用原文数字数据和百分比变化,注意单位换算(billion=十亿,million=百万,thousand=千)。 [注意事项] 1) 使用中文,不要出现句号 2) 采用markdown格式 3) 不使用第一人称,以"公司"、"行业"代替 4) 只输出关于公司和行业的内容 5) 在每一个关键点后用[序号]形式引用原文档id 6) 一个[序号]只应该包含一个数字，不能包含多个，如果多个就用[序号][序号]分开写，不要写成 [序号-序号] 7) 每个关键要点后边的 [序号] 不要超过 3 个 Content: --------- <doc id='1'>QuidelOrtho (NasdaqGS:QDEL) 2025 Conference September 10, 2025 03:10 PM ET Speaker0 Go ahead and get started, I'm Katherine Schulte, I cover life sciences and diagnostics here at Baird. Very excited to have Quidel Ortho joining us today. From the company we have the CFO, Joe Buske. So Joe, thanks so much for joining us. I think we're gonna dive right into Q and A so if anyone has a question, feel free to send them to session3rwbear dot com and I will pass them along.</doc> <doc id='2'>So Joe, thought maybe we could just start at a high level. Can you just talk about key takeaways from the quarter and maybe how your strategic vision for the company is unfolding here? Speaker1 Sure. And by the way, thanks, Katherine. Thanks for having us to the conference. It's been great. And as far as that first question on highlights from Q2, I would say that we've now had two good quarters in a row to start off 2025 with good margin improvement of 400 plus basis point margin improvement over the prior year.</doc> <doc id='3'>I think we also showed that we've made some strategic decisions in line with what Brian and I said we were wanna do fifteen months ago when he started. And, examples of that would be we we announced that we're closing a very large manufacturing facility in Raritan, New Jersey, which is gonna provide some real nice operating margin improvement in a couple years. And we made the decision to pivot from Savannah development of molecular product to Lex, which is a business in UK that we're going to purchase once they get FDA approval for their first respiratory panel. And so again these decisions are just all around margin improvement and making the company more productive and more efficient. Again, things that Brian and I said we were gonna do last year when he when he started.</doc> <doc id='4'>I guess the last thing I'd mention is that the base business continues to grow in at the rate which we said it would grow, you know, in that sort of mid single digit growth for labs and immunohematology.</doc> <doc id='5'>Speaker0 Yeah, I want to get into Lexin a bit, but maybe starting on the lab side of the business. You know, to your point, recurring revenue growth remained solid to start the year. You know, where do you think you're winning in the clinical chemistry business? Speaker1 Yeah, the strategy with labs continues a strategy that was started probably about five or so years ago, and that is to focus on the small to mid size hospital and labs, which we define as our sweet spot. You know, we're doing quite well there. I would say the other strategy is to focus on leading with integrated analyzers that runs both routine chemistry and immunoassays. And, you know, that strategy continues to be the one that we're gonna employ and it's it's working quite well. And, you know, the growth in the labs business continues to be right where we said it would be in that mid single digit growth range.</doc> <doc id='6'>Speaker0 What about on the instrumentation side? You know, how's the current capital equipment environment? Speaker1 Yeah, I don't see a lot of impact of customers pausing on placing analyzers due to the macro. And I think it's mainly because the the value of the analyzers we're placing is much less than, say, an MRI or imaging piece of equipment that's, you know, millions and millions of dollars. I think I think our purchase the equipment purchases that our customers are making kind of fly below the radar to some extent. We also offer, like our competitors do, an alternative to to buying an instrument, and that is a reagent rental where we can place an analyzer at a customer location and charge them the cost of the box over the life of the contract in the form of a surcharge on the consumables. So that's a way of kind of getting around maybe CapEx limitations that a customer may have.</doc> <doc id='7'>Speaker0 And how important is the automation element to customers? You know, how has your integrated analyzer kind of helped in this environment? And I think it's around a third of your installed base now, so how do you think that will track over time? Speaker1 Yeah, for sure automation and the integrated analyzers are super important to our customers and to our strategy of growing the labs business. In fact, you look at the automation, or I should say the growth in the automation and installed base over the last several years, it's typically been in the high single digits and low double digits as indicative of the strategy working. You know, we continue to lead with that integrated analyzer which is going to drive more higher margin immunoassay revenue growth for us. And that's important because if you look at our business relative to where the market is, our mix of immunoassay and routine chemistry is inverted from where the overall market is. And so there's lots of room for us to grow that immunoassay side of the business.</doc> <doc id='8'>And in fact, if you look at our percentage of installed base that's integrated versus nonintegrated, if you go back to when Ortho Clinical Diagnostics went public in 2021, we were around 24% of the base was integrated, and now we're sitting at around 30% of that base, installed base, being integrated. So you can kind of get a feel for the pace of which we're moving and employing that strategy and you can also get a feel for how much room is left to run, how much we can run this strategy out. There's plenty of runway left.</doc> <doc id='9'>Speaker0 And in terms of that kind of immunoassay mix, I guess where do you see the biggest opportunities in the portfolio to keep driving that? Speaker1 Yeah, good question. I think that if you look at where the labs growth is, you know, in the more developed markets of The US and Western Europe, you'll see more, you know, low to mid single digit growth. But when you look in less developed areas like Latin America and Asia Pacific and Eastern Europe, you'll see more high single digits, sometimes low double digit growth. And so we I I look towards those lesser developed markets of Eastern Europe and Asia Pac as the areas where I think there's lots of opportunity for us to to grow that integrated analyzer base and grow that immunoassay business.</doc> <doc id='10'>Speaker0 And if we move on to molecular, you know, how does the planned Flex acquisition kind of expand your footprint there and maybe talk through the strategic rationale for pursuing that route instead of continuing with Savannah.</doc> <doc id='11'>Speaker1 Yeah, it was a really tough decision that we made back in June to pivot from developing Savannah to Lex. Savannah had been a product that Quidel had been working on prior to the combination with ortho for many years and it's it's it's a great product. Savannah, I think, has a lot of potential competitive advantages in the marketplace, but Lex also has some very distinct competitive advantages in the marketplace where we intend to sell it and those advantages I would say are focused on turnaround time, ease of use and cost. And so the decision was made to pivot to Lex primarily because if you look at the amount of time it would take to fill out the menu, the amount of cost it would take to fill out the menu, and the level of technical risk, which is much less in a product like Lex, we decided to discontinue Savannah and focus our resources on Lex because again, we think we can get that menu filled out much faster and for much less cost and a lot less risk. And so we believe that the first panel which was submitted to the FDA which is a respiratory panel in June, we believe that we will get approval for that panel sometime later this year.</doc> <doc id='12'>Speaker0 And maybe what's the timeline for menu expansion there into other respiratory or women's health applications? Just curious, you know, how much there is an opportunity outside of that initial panel.</doc> <doc id='13'>Speaker1 Yeah, there's lots of opportunity to fill out that menu. I think first we'll focus on RSV and strep being added to the panel and then women's health and STI will be next. More to come on specific timelines but yeah, there's plenty of opportunity to fill up that menu and expand.</doc> <doc id='14'>Speaker0 And how do you think about, you know, the overlap with kind of the rest of your portfolio? Is there any potential cannibalization for Sofia? Speaker1 The good news is is that the Lex product can be commercialized through the existing sales force. So there's no need to add any resources to commercialize Lex as we move into early twenty six. They're based on the customer research that we've done, the KOLs we've talked to, we believe there's plenty of room for both a rapid antigen test like Sofia and a molecular product like Lex. And there is some some overlap but I would say it's not not significant at all. It's probably, you know, 10% or less of of overlap and and even that amount of overlap is not overly concerning for us because if there are customers who'd rather use Lex rather than Savannah, the Lex margins are higher.</doc> <doc id='15'>And so that would be some minor amounts of cannibalization that I'd probably welcome from a margin perspective.</doc> <doc id='16'>Speaker0 And you've talked about kind of reinvesting some of your Savannah dollars into Lex, you know, where are those investments mainly concentrated this year and kinda what additional steps are you taking to prepare for that kind of limited commercial launch in the first half of next year? Speaker1 Yeah, we're definitely excited about getting approval on that first panel later this year so we can start a limited commercialization in this first and second quarter twenty six respiratory season. As I said a minute ago, really no need for any additional commercial resources. We've got everything we need. Being the leader in respiratory testing in The US, we've got all the commercial resources that we need to sell that product. I guess the most near term investments might be in the form of not too significant CapEx that will be needed to increase the manufacturing capacity for Lex.</doc> <doc id='17'>There is a line that the company has in The UK right now but will need an additional line either somewhere in The UK again or in The US. Haven't decided that yet but that will be something that will stand up pretty early in '26 so that we can hit the late in the '26, early twenty seven respiratory season with a much more fulsome rollout and commercialization.</doc> <doc id='18'>Speaker0 Okay. And then on point of care, you you lowered the 2025 outlook for COVID revenue coming out of the second quarter. Can you just remind us of the seasonality baked in for the third and fourth quarter and maybe just given the trends that you've seen so far this year, you know, how you think about forecasting, you know, endemic COVID revenues longer term? Speaker1 Yeah. COVID's been been quite the ride. And I I know that there's been a lot of focus on the on the decline of the COVID revenue over the last several years, but I do believe that as a headline conclusion, we've digested most of that decline. When you think about where we were in '21 and '22 with a billion 4 of COVID revenue that's dropped to 400,000,000 and then a 185,000,000 last year, you know, the guidance this year is for 70 to a 100. And if you just pick the midpoint of of that, somewhere you in the mid eighties, I think that's a realistic, very realistic point of of where where the declines end.</doc> <doc id='19'>And, you know, and I can say that with with some confidence because all of the the government order revenue is is gone and the retail business is is fairly small at this point. There's not a whole lot lot left. So most of what's left is the professional use space revenue which has proven to be somewhat consistent and durable. And so we do think that that, you know, call it that midpoint of the 70 to a 100 is probably a good place to think that not only we're gonna end up this year, but where we're gonna go for the next next several years with COVID revenue. So I think all of these views of revenue of ex COVID that we've done for the past couple years, think we're we're really getting to the end of that, which is great news, I know, the buy side and sell side.</doc> <doc id='20'>Speaker0 Yep. Absolutely. Maybe any thoughts on the upcoming flu season? Are there any clues from the Southern Hemisphere around, you know, what this upcoming season could look like relative to historical trends? Speaker1 Yeah. The flu season in the Southern Hemisphere is always a good data point for us and that flu season has turned out to be one that I would define as more typical or average. And so that's good because that's what we've said all along this year is that our guidance for flu revenue is gonna be a typical or average season. And we define that as flu season in terms of volume, 50 to 55,000,000 tests, and the combo test mix being greater than 50% and steady market share. So the new model that we've gone to to project the flu revenue that we went to in '24 has proven out to be a good one.</doc> <doc id='21'>You know, we very close, almost I would say spot on to what we guided the street to for the first half of the year for flu revenue. And so we have a lot of confidence that where we are for the second half of this year is going to be pretty close as well. And and, you know, what we're seeing is that the the patterns for the flu season are getting back to more predictable pre pandemic patterns. The the level of testing is up versus pre pandemic mainly because of the combo test, and we think that combo test is pretty durable given that it's been over 50% of our flu revenue now for two plus years. And so, you know, I think that flu season is, the flu season revenue is getting a little more predictable.</doc> <doc id='22'>So we feel good about where the guidance is for the second half of the year.</doc> <doc id='23'>Speaker0 Yeah. Maybe shifting to transfusion medicine, you know, how should we think about that business following the U. Donor screening wind down and, you know, what's your view on the growth outlook there? Speaker1 Yeah, so as a reminder, the transfusion medicine business unit for us is comprised of the donor screening business, which is primarily the business of screening for infectious disease in the blood supply donations. And we decided to shut down, wind down that business last year because it is a small market, It's lower growth and it's it's got lower margins compared to the rest of our businesses. So we decided to wind it down last year. And, you know, last year we did about a 120,000,000 of revenue. This year it'll be probably 40 to 50,000,000 of revenue.</doc> <doc id='24'>And this business will be fully wound down in early twenty six. And so again, that revenue headwind of the donor screening wind down, which we've had all year, which is down about 40% in the first half of the year, that headwind will go away in the first half of next year and we won't be dealing with that anymore. And the top line revenue growth will be made up more of the base business, which we see as a mid single digit growth business. The other business within transfusion medicine is immunohematology, and that's a business that we really like. That business is global.</doc> <doc id='25'>We're the global number one in terms of market share with that business and we do intend to continue to invest in that business going forward.</doc> <doc id='26'>Speaker0 Yeah. Okay. And maybe on China, there's been a lot of noise there for diagnostics companies, particularly this quarter. It sounds like you've been relatively insulated from some of the unbundling and VBP headwinds that</doc> <doc id='27'>others are seeing. Is that right? And are there any parts of your business that are seeing pressure there? Speaker1 I was waiting for the China questions. I knew they were coming. The we spent a lot of time on this on our last earnings call. Brian, I think, did a great job of of talking about why our business is different from others in our space in in China. And I know a lot of folks like to paint a broad brush with with the China risk, but our business is different, and here's why.</doc> <doc id='28'>First of all, we use a dry slide technology on our lab side, which none

财务数据和关键指标变化 - 第二季度净销售额为2.143亿美元 同比增长1.9% 去年同期为2.102亿美元 [8] - 可比销售额增长2.5% 连续第五个季度实现正增长 [2][8] - 北美净销售额1.8亿美元 同比增长2.1% 国际净销售额3420万美元 同比增长1% [8] - 毛利率为35.5% 同比提升130个基点 主要受产品利润率改善60个基点和经营杠杆60个基点推动 [10] - 营业利润为10万美元 占净销售额0.1% 去年同期为营业亏损40万美元 [11] - 净亏损100万美元 每股亏损0.06美元 去年同期净亏损80万美元 每股亏损0.04美元 [11] - 现金及有价证券1.067亿美元 去年同期为1.27亿美元 [13] - 库存1.577亿美元 同比下降0.6% [14] 各条业务线数据和关键指标变化 - 女装品类表现最佳 其次是硬商品和配件 鞋类和男装表现相对较弱 [9] - 私有品牌销售额占比达到30% 创历史新高 去年同期为27% [4] - 可比销售额增长主要由单笔交易金额增加推动 交易笔数有所下降 [9] - 第三季度至今所有品类均实现正可比销售增长 女装领先 其次是男装、配件、鞋类和硬商品 [16] - 私有品牌产品利润率比品牌产品高10-15个百分点 [55] 各个市场数据和关键指标变化 - 北美可比销售额增长4.2% 连续第六个季度正增长 [9] - 国际可比销售额下降5.5% 2025年以来持续为负 [9] - 北美业务是主要增长动力 8月份实现两位数可比销售增长 [3] - 按固定汇率计算 国际净销售额下降4.2% [8] - 第三季度至今北美可比销售额增长13% 国际下降3.2% [16] 公司战略和发展方向和行业竞争 - 专注于三大战略重点：客户导向的收入增长、盈利能力优化、利用财务基础管理波动 [3][5] - 2024年引入超过120个新品牌 持续提供独特和独家商品 [4] - 坚持高端定价策略 支持利润率提升和市场份额扩张 [5] - 欧洲市场面临挑战 正在执行三年计划使其恢复盈亏平衡 [42] - 计划2025年新开6家门店 关闭约20家门店 [20] - 资本支出预计1.1-1.3亿美元 低于2024年的1500万美元 [20] 管理层对经营环境和未来前景的评论 - 对北美业务韧性表示满意 但对关税和消费者不确定性保持谨慎 [3][17] - 8月份可比销售额增长11.2% 两年叠加增长23.3% 为重要假日季提供信心 [3][15] - 预计2025年销售额增长3-4% 尽管门店关闭将带来约1400万美元负面影响 [19] - 预计产品利润率将实现温和同比增长 在2024年改善70个基点基础上进一步提升 [19] - 预计2025年将恢复盈利 营业利润率和净利润将同比增长 [20] 其他重要信息 - 第二季度回购60万股 平均成本13.10美元 总额780万美元 [14] - 截至8月2日 仍有720万美元回购额度 [14] - 预计2025年有效税率50-60% 稀释后股数约1730万股 [20][21] - 欧洲最大市场德国经济基本零增长 期待2026年经济刺激计划带来改善 [44] 问答环节所有提问和回答 问题: 第三季度指引假设及经营利润率构成 [23] - 假设季末可比销售额将回落至低个位数增长 接近第二季度水平 [24] - 预计将获得显著的毛利率扩张 包括经营杠杆和产品利润率改善 [25] - SG&A费用增长率预计将低于销售额增长率 第三季度将获得良好杠杆 [25][26] 问题: 平均单价(AUR)增长驱动因素 [27] - AUR增长是价格上调、品类组合变化和促销策略共同作用的结果 [28] - 私有品牌业务采取了价格调整 同时品类向服装业务转移 [28] - 过去五个季度增长主要由AUR推动 返校季期间交易笔数也有所增加 [29] 问题: 私有品牌强势表现及牛仔品类占比 [30] - 私有品牌在牛仔等核心裤类品类中渗透率较高 [31] - 增长反映了品牌周期加快的趋势 公司需要更深度掌控核心品类 [32] - 通过多个品牌针对不同客群细分 坚持高端定价策略 [33] 问题: 长期经营利润率目标及驱动因素 [38] - 长期目标仍是恢复到高个位数营业利润率水平 [40] - 关键是销售额恢复 北美业务仍有增长空间回到2019年水平 [41] - 产品利润率提升和国际业务改善将是重要驱动因素 [42] 问题: 欧洲业务面临的主要挑战 [44] - 需要当地经济环境配合 特别是德国市场需要恢复增长 [44] - 必须优化商品组合 更好地把握流行趋势 [45] - 需要提升门店体验 增加销量和钱包份额 [45] 问题: 滑板和鞋类业务是否已触底 [50] - 滑板硬件业务已转正 但对持续性保持谨慎 通常春夏表现更好 [51][52] - 鞋类业务仍然充满挑战 不仅仅是单一品牌的问题 [53] - 相信滑板业务已触底 但鞋类业务仍需时间调整 [54] 问题: 产品利润率机会与私有品牌关系 [55] - 私有品牌产品利润率比品牌产品高10-15% [55] - 但也通过授权模式与品牌合作 利润率介于两者之间 [56] - 历史上在品牌周期中也实现过产品利润率提升 [55]

财务数据和关键指标变化 - 研发费用占销售额比例从8%提升至9%-10% 且不会影响每股收益 [11] - 第一季度毛利率改善30-40个基点 主要由定价和成本节约推动 [36] - 预计2027财年实现高个位数每股收益增长 由收入增长和运营杠杆驱动 [38][54] - 外汇因素预计在2027财年继续提供小幅顺风 [58] - 现金转换率将从2027年开始改善 [26] 各条业务线数据和关键指标变化 - 心脏消融解决方案(CAS)业务增长从30%加速至近50% [59] - 糖尿病业务将推出两个新传感器(Instinct和Simpler)和新款耐用泵 [49][51] - TAVR业务全球增长第四季度为10% 第一季度为6%以上 [83] - 骨盆健康业务将推出胫骨神经刺激器 预计将带来显著增长 [48][86] - 神经血管业务正在推出颈动脉支架和出血性产品 [47] 各个市场数据和关键指标变化 - 美国TAVR增长低于国际市场的表现 [83] - 日本市场特别重视安全性 Pulse Select和Afera系统因安全性领先而受到青睐 [68] - 全球手术机器人市场规模达60亿美元 [42] 公司战略和发展方向和行业竞争 - 与Elliott Management存在大量战略共识 重点为"资本化"和"加速" [5] - 计划通过补强并购和持续组合审查来加速加权平均增长率提升 [6] - 专注于高增长领域进行并购 如心脏消融、结构性心脏病和高血压 [19][21] - 糖尿病业务分拆正在进行中 预计明年下半年完成 [30] - Hugo手术机器人系统是重大投资 公司对其长期潜力保持信心但会定期评估里程碑 [40][43][44] - 目前心脏消融市场份额约为10% 但有信心通过Afera等产品成为市场领导者 [66] 管理层对经营环境和未来前景的评论 - 公司运营基础(IT、供应链、质量)已显著改善 [88] - 创新产品收入占比(活力指数)从几年前的十几%提高到现在的20%中段 并预计将继续增长 [35] - Ardian的NCD覆盖范围比许多投资者预期的更广泛 最终决定预计在10月8日左右 [71][74] - Ardian的采用曲线预计将比Watchman更快 预计规模也将更大 [80] - 对下半年的增长加速充满信心 由多种增长驱动因素推动 [47][48] 其他重要信息 - 定价改善由三个因素推动：更好的外汇管理、更好的折扣控制和创新产品推出 [33][34] - 成本节约由严格的采购和工厂绩效管理推动 [36] - Afera系统需求非常高 目前存在产能限制但正在增加生产线 [64][65] - Ardian的培训负担较低 重点在于市场开发和建立转诊路径 [76][77] 问答环节所有的提问和回答 问题: 与Elliott Management的共识领域及改进方向 - Elliott以创造股东价值著称 其研究深入且与公司存在大量共识 改进重点在于加快组合优化步伐(包括并购) [5][6] 问题: 投资组合广度是否影响增长及是否会进一步分拆 - 研发占销售额比例目标提升至9%-10% 同时进行补强并购 公司相信能管理好当前组合并实现增长 但也不排除任何可能性 [11][12][14] 问题: 电池等技术共享是否阻碍业务分拆 - 这增加了额外障碍 但糖尿病业务因协同效应较少而更容易分拆 若有需要 公司不会让此类问题阻碍分拆决策 [16][17] 问题: 并购活动少于同行的原因及未来展望 - 过去因COVID-19、供应链和产品质量问题而更专注于夯实运营基础 现在处于更有利位置进行并购 重点关注高增长领域 [18][19] 问题: 股息支付率和稀释效应是否制约并购 - 股息不构成问题 公司有足够火力进行规模可观的补强并购 现金生成能力改善也将提供支持 对于战略性交易 可接受短期稀释 [24][25][27] 问题: 如何改善毛利率 - 短期不利因素(关税、产品组合压力)将逐步缓解 运营改善(定价、成本节约)持续进行 预计能实现持续的毛利率改善 [29][30][32][36] 问题: 对Hugo手术机器人投资回报的看法 - 该投资巨大且竞争激烈 但公司相信其系统及围绕它的整体业务模式(包括数字平台和其他技术)将提升业务的整体盈利能力 [40][41][42] 问题: 第一季度多个业务表现疲软但全年增长指引是否保守 - 公司对下半年增长加速充满信心 由多种增长驱动因素推动 但目前维持原有指引 [47][48] 问题: 糖尿病业务是否会改善 - 将推出两个新传感器和新款耐用泵 业务前景令人兴奋 [49][51] 问题: 2027财年增长加速及每股收益增长的驱动因素 - 增长驱动因素将发挥全年效应 运营杠杆持续 线下项目压力减轻 共同推动高个位数每股收益增长 [54][56][57] 问题: CAS业务增长加速的驱动因素及未来展望 - 增长主要由Afera系统及其导管驱动 需求旺盛且供应能力正在提升 [59][60][65] 问题: 是否有机会成为心脏消融市场领导者 - 公司相信有机会 凭借Afera、Pipeline产品(如SPHERI-nine导管)和卓越的安全性数据 但未给出具体时间表 [66][68] 问题: 对Ardian的NCD覆盖范围及最重要变更的看法 - 覆盖范围良好且符合预期 目前重点转向市场开发和建立转诊路径 [71][74][77] 问题: 对Ardian规模采用曲线的看法(与Watchman对比) - 预计规模更大且采用速度更快 [80] 问题: 美国TAVR业务表现 - 第一季度增长较弱但第四季度强劲 需综合看待 全球业务表现良好且公司对其地位充满信心 [83][84] 问题: 其他未讨论的重要事项 - 胫骨神经刺激器即将推出 预计将带来显著增长 公司运营基础稳固 增长驱动因素就绪 处于进攻态势 [86][88]

投资评级 - 维持"买入"评级 [5][9] 核心财务表现 - 2025H1收入25.93亿元 同比+27.0% [2] - 2025H1经调整净利润9142万元 同比+79.6% [2] - 2025H1经调整EBITDA 3.23亿元 同比+38.3% [2] - 经调整EBITDA利润率12.4% 同比+1.0个百分点 [4] - 经调整净利率3.5% 同比+1.0个百分点 [4] - 餐厅层面经营利润率14.6% 同比+0.1个百分点 [4] 扩张进展 - 截至2025H1门店总数1198家 较2024年末净增190家 [3] - 完成全年300家开店计划的63.3% [3] - 已入驻48个城市 上半年新拓9城 [3] - 截至8月15日门店较上半年额外净增43家 另有27家在建 35家已签约 [3] 运营指标 - 2025H1同店销售额同比-1.0% [3] - 单店日均销售额12915元 同比-4.44% [3] - 原材料成本占比27.25% 同比-0.07个百分点 [4] - 员工成本占比27.7% 同比+0.3个百分点 [4] - 租金相关开支占比9.99% 同比+0.11个百分点 [4] 盈利预测 - 预计2025年收入55.24亿元 同比+28.05% [5][8] - 预计2026年收入71.13亿元 同比+28.77% [5][8] - 预计2027年收入89.67亿元 同比+26.06% [5][8] - 预计2025年经调整净利润2.1亿元 同比+61% [5] - 预计2026年经调整净利润3.5亿元 同比+66% [5] - 预计2027年经调整净利润5.7亿元 同比+62% [5] 财务比率预测 - 预计2025年ROE 6.13% 2026年11.11% 2027年16.34% [8] - 预计2025年P/E 45.37倍 2026年27.30倍 2027年16.88倍 [8] - 预计毛利率稳定维持在73%水平 [10]

行业投资评级 - 纺织服饰行业投资评级：优于大市（维持）[1] 核心观点 - 亚玛芬体育2025年第二季度收入同比增长23%至12.36亿美元，调整后净利润同比增长46%至0.36亿美元，均超彭博一致预期及公司指引[2] - 萨洛蒙品牌、DTC渠道、大中华及亚太地区表现突出，带动收入增长，管理层上调全年收入及EPS指引[2][3] - 经调毛利率达58.7%，创历史新高；经调营业利润率同比提升250bps至5.5%，显著高于指引[5][6] 业绩表现 收入与利润 - 2025年上半财年收入同比增长23%至27.09亿美元，调整后净利润同比增长146%至1.84亿美元[2] - 2025Q2收入同比增长23.5%（固定汇率+22%），其中DTC渠道收入占比提升至52%（同比+40%）[5][12] - 分业务收入：Technical Apparel（始祖鸟主导）+23.5%，Outdoor Performance（萨洛蒙主导）+35.3%，Ball & Racquet（威尔胜主导）+10.7%[5][8][11] 利润率与费用 - 经调毛利率同比提升250bps至58.7%，主要受益于渠道/地域/产品组合优化及折扣减少[6] - 经调营业利润率同比提升250bps至5.5%，其中Outdoor Performance业务利润率提升720bps至5.1%[6][11] - 财务费用率同比下降270bps至1.8%，因债务结构优化及外汇收益抵消利息支出[6] 业务与区域表现 分业务 1. **Technical Apparel**： - 始祖鸟驱动全渠道增长，鞋类与女性产品表现突出，亚太地区增速领先[8] - 营业利润率13.9%（同比-10bps），受零售扩张导致的SG&A费用增加影响[8] 2. **Outdoor Performance**： - 萨洛蒙鞋类加速放量，大中华区新开16家门店，全年目标290家[11] - 营业利润率由负转正至5.1%，受益于成本优化与DTC渠道杠杆效应[11] 3. **Ball & Racquet**： - 威尔胜网球360系列表现强劲，服装收入增长超100%[11] 分地区 - 大中华区收入同比+42%（远超彭博预期），亚太地区+45%，北美+6%，EMEA+18%[5][12] 管理层指引 - **全年指引上调**： - 收入增速从15-17%上调至20-21%（汇率贡献100bps）[20] - 经调EPS从0.67-0.72美元上调至0.77-0.82美元[20] - **分业务指引**： - Technical Apparel收入增速上调至22-25%（原20-22%）[22] - Outdoor Performance利润率指引上调至11-11.5%（原约9.5%）[22] 投资建议 - 亚玛芬体育业绩全面超预期，安踏体育（持股41.97%）有望受益于联营公司盈利贡献提升[24] - 可比公司估值显示亚玛芬2025年PE为50倍，低于耐克（35.3倍）但高于安踏（19.0倍）[25]

财务表现 - 25H1公司实现收入400.92亿元，同比-2.7%，归母净利润22.71亿元，同比增长0.5% [1] - 毛利率/归母净利率分别为34.5%/5.7%，同比增长1.9pct/1.1pct [1] - 预计2025-2027年营收分别为798.9/819.6/841.0亿元，同比-0.9%/+2.6%/+2.6% [3] - 预计2025-2027年归母净利润为42.4/45.1/47.9亿元，对应EPS分别为0.75/0.80/0.85元 [3] 饮品业务 - 25H1饮品板块收入263.59亿元，同比下降2.6% [1] - 细分品类中茶饮料/包装水/果汁饮料收入分别下滑6.3%/6.0%/13.0%，碳酸饮料同比增长6.3% [1] - 饮品板块毛利率提升至37.7%，提高2.5pct，归母净利13.35亿元，同比增长19.7% [1] - 收入承压主因竞争加剧和提价策略影响 [1] 方便面业务 - 25H1方便面板块收入134.65亿元，同比微降2.5% [2] - 中价位袋面收入增长8.0%，高价袋面下降7.2%，容器面微降1.3% [2] - 方便面毛利率提升0.7pct至27.8%，主因售价及结构优化 [2] - 预计25H2基数影响减弱，7-8月数据同比小幅转正 [2] 现金流与分红 - 截至25H1银行存款及手头现金194.9亿元，经营活动现金流入31.2亿元 [2] - 2020-2024年度现金分红比例为100%/166%/198%/100%/100% [2] - 预计25年股息率可达7.2% [2] 估值与评级 - 给予公司2025年19xPE，目标价15.6港元 [3] - 维持"优于大市"评级 [3]

财务数据和关键指标变化 - 2025财年第四季度销售额同比增长5.5%，其中收购贡献6.5个百分点增长，外汇折算和销售天数差异分别带来-40和-80个基点影响 [30] - 全年EPS增长4%，超过初始指引上限，创下销售额、EBITDA和EPS新纪录 [6] - 全年自由现金流达4.65亿美元，同比增长34%，创历史新高 [18] - 第四季度毛利率30.6%，同比下降9个基点但环比上升15个基点 [31] - 第四季度EBITDA利润率12.5%，同比下降73个基点，主要受应收账款拨备增加影响 [36] 各条业务线数据和关键指标变化 - 服务中⼼业务第四季度有机销售额同比下降0.4%，但环比增长1.5%，超出正常季节性模式 [38] - 工程解决方案业务销售额同比增长20.7%，其中收购贡献19.7个百分点，有机增长1.8% [41] - 工程解决方案业务自动化业务实现中个位数有机增长，技术垂直领域实现两位数增长 [10] - 服务中⼼业务EBITDA利润率13.6%，同比下降100个基点，主要受应收账款拨备影响 [39] - 工程解决方案业务EBITDA利润率14.8%，同比下降90个基点，受Hydrodyne收购影响 [42] 各个市场数据和关键指标变化 - 前30大终端市场中15个实现销售增长，与上季度持平 [11] - 技术垂直领域贡献约100个基点有机增长，抵消了机械、基础金属等领域的下滑 [12] - 数据中⼼、半导体制造、食品饮料等垂直领域表现强劲 [16] - 加拿大市场表现疲软，主要受关税影响 [98] - 移动OEM流体动力业务持续疲软，全年拖累工程解决方案业务有机增长400个基点 [13] 公司战略和发展方向和行业竞争 - 通过Hydrodyne等收购扩大业务范围，2025财年收购贡献400个基点无机增长 [19] - 持续投资自动化平台、流程控制等技术领域，扩大终端市场覆盖 [16] - 利用AI、定价分析等工具优化运营效率 [29] - 关注电动流体动力系统等新兴技术转型机会 [27] - 预计2026财年收购将继续成为重要增长动力 [28] 管理层对经营环境和未来前景的评论 - 预计2026财年销售额增长4%-7%，其中有机增长1%-4%，EBITDA利润率12.2%-12.5% [45] - 看好美国制造业回流、税收改革等带来的长期增长机会 [25] - 预计价格贡献将逐步增加，全年达到150-200个基点 [46] - 对Hydrodyne整合进展满意，EBITDA贡献超预期 [53] - 行业需求能见度仍然有限，但出现改善迹象 [13] 其他重要信息 - 2025财年回购65.6万股，价值1.53亿美元，股息增长24% [19] - 预计2026财年资本支出3000-3500万美元 [48] - Hydrodyne第四季度贡献EBITDA约700万美元 [87] - 预计2026财年LIFO费用1400-1800万美元 [46] - 公司市值超过100亿美元，股东回报超过主要市场基准 [49] 问答环节所有的提问和回答 Hydrodyne整合进展 - Hydrodyne第四季度销售额环比增长12%，EBITDA增长30%，超出预期 [53] - 预计协同效应将加速实现，成本协同占80%，销售协同占20% [54] - 收购后12个月内预计每股收益增加0.15美元，目前进展符合预期 [87] 定价策略 - 第四季度价格贡献略高于100个基点，预计2026财年将达到150-200个基点 [62] - 价格贡献将逐步增加，第一季度预计与第四季度相似 [62] 工程解决方案业务展望 - 技术垂直领域包括数据中⼼和半导体制造业务 [64] - 自动化业务在食品饮料、生命科学等领域表现良好 [66] - 加速折旧政策可能刺激客户资本支出 [67] 毛利率影响因素 - 应收账款拨备增加影响第四季度利润率，预计将恢复正常 [76] - Hydrodyne目前利润率低于部门平均水平，预计将逐步改善 [77] - 2025财年第四季度工程解决方案业务利润率16%为历史高点，造成艰难比较 [80] 国际业务表现 - 加拿大市场受关税影响表现疲软 [98] - 国际业务疲软主要集中在服务中⼼业务 [38]

投资评级 - 维持强烈推荐评级 当前市值对应25PE10 5X、26PE9 9X [1][7] 核心观点 - 航民股份25Q2营收同比增长0 91%至24 93亿元 归母净利润同比增长5 00%至1 79亿元 净利率提升至8 13% [1][3] - 25H1印染业务收入同比减少8 58%但利润率提升0 98pct至13 35% 黄金业务收入增长0 47%且利润率提升0 06pct至2 81% [2] - 预计2025-2027年归母净利润分别为7 26/7 70/8 12亿元 对应同比增速1%/6%/6% [7][8] 财务表现 盈利能力 - 25H1毛利率同比提升2 94pct至18 96% 期间费用率仅上升0 22pct至5 29% [3] - Q2净利率同比提升0 13pct至8 13% 主要受益于费用率下降0 82pct [3] - 2025E毛利率14 0% ROE维持11%左右水平 [11] 现金流与周转 - 25H1经营现金流7 00亿元（同比-7 18%） 存货周转天数增加31天至113天 [7] - 预计2025年经营活动现金流11 19亿元 资本支出2 20亿元 [9] 业务分析 印染业务 - 25H1收入17 69亿元（-8 58%） 利润总额2 36亿元（-1 36%） 体现强成本管控能力 [2] 黄金业务 - 销量同比减少17 34%至27 244吨 但通过产品结构调整实现收入34 40亿元（+0 47%）和利润总额0 97亿元（+2 60%） [2] 估值数据 - 当前股价7 46元 对应总市值76亿元 每股净资产6 2元 [4] - 2025E每股收益0 71元 PE10 5X PB1 1X 低于行业平均水平 [8][11]

财务数据和关键指标变化 - 第二季度合并净收入同比增长3.8%，按固定汇率计算增长5.2%（排除亚马逊认股权证的非现金影响）[12] - 北美地区销售额同比增长12.2%，销量增长14.8%[13] - 欧洲和亚太地区销量与去年同期持平[14] - 自动化业务收入同比增长34%，预计全年自动化收入将达到4000-4500万美元[15] - 调整后EBITDA同比下降18%（排除亚马逊认股权证影响后下降12%）[15] - 公司预计下半年北美地区毛利率（不含折旧）将改善300-500个基点[10] 各条业务线数据和关键指标变化 - 自动化业务增长强劲，同比增长34%，预计全年收入4000-4500万美元[15] - 北美地区企业账户贡献了稳定的增长，而分销渠道表现相对疲软[13] - 欧洲市场增长面临挑战，受关税和贸易不确定性影响[14] - 亚太地区出现100-200万美元的去库存现象[14] - 公司预计自动化业务将在第四季度实现盈亏平衡[62] 各个市场数据和关键指标变化 - 北美市场表现强劲，销售额增长12.2%，销量增长14.8%[13] - 欧洲市场增长乏力，但7月份出现同比销量改善迹象[14][44] - 亚太地区受去库存影响，但马来西亚工厂SKU生产正在增加[14] - 欧元兑美元汇率走强对公司业绩产生积极影响[21] 公司战略和发展方向和行业竞争 - 公司正在进行组织结构全球化调整，招聘了新的首席运营官[10][11] - 自动化业务被视为未来增长引擎，目标年收入超过1亿美元[32] - 公司持有Pickle Robot 8.8%的股份，看好其机器人卸载解决方案[34] - 正在谈判一项可能改变游戏规则的北美多年期战略交易[6][61] - 公司推出了新的缓冲产品，预计将改善产品组合[30] 管理层对经营环境和未来前景的评论 - 尽管年初开局较慢，但对下半年业务前景保持信心[6] - 北美地区毛利率面临最大压力，预计改善措施将在第三季度见效[8] - 欧洲市场7月出现销量同比改善，可能预示着稳定迹象[14] - 纸价和能源成本环境因地而异，欧洲能源市场比第一季度更有利[17][18] - 公司预计全年净收入4.065亿美元（原指引范围内），调整后EBITDA 8330万美元（略低于原指引）[36] 其他重要信息 - 公司全球裁员3%（自4月起）[9] - 已确定800万美元年度成本削减计划，预计第三季度实现100万美元，第四季度实现全面运行[10] - 截至6月30日，现金余额4920万美元，无循环信贷额度提取[25] - 预计年底现金余额将达到7000-7500万美元[26] - 第二季度资本支出980万美元，其中790万美元用于PPS转换器[27] 问答环节所有的提问和回答 问题1：2024-2025年EBITDA变化原因分析 - 回答：预计销量将增长高个位数，毛利率（不含折旧）将下降约5个百分点（其中1-1.5个百分点与认股权证相关），临时低效造成约2个百分点压力，EMEA/APAC地区造成约200万美元压力[40][41] 问题2：欧洲市场7月改善情况 - 回答：7月欧洲销量同比改善，可能与关税谈判带来的市场稳定有关，但尚不能确定是否形成趋势[43][44] 问题3：北美毛利率下降原因及未来展望 - 回答：毛利率下降5.4个百分点中，4.7个百分点来自认股权证和临时项目；已采取措施改善货运和仓储成本，预计第三季度将见效[46][47][49] 问题4：自由现金流展望更新 - 回答：预计年底现金余额7000-7500万美元（原预期高1500-2000万美元），仍计划偿还400万美元债务[51] 问题5：下半年业务改善的信心来源 - 回答：北美企业账户新增安装、欧洲市场潜在稳定、亚太地区新业务（如日本）以及自动化业务强劲订单[56][57][58] 问题6：自动化业务盈亏平衡时间点 - 回答：预计第三季度仍有少量拖累，第四季度将达到盈亏平衡[62]

财务数据和关键指标变化 - 第四季度有机销售额增长8%，剔除零售商库存增加13%-14%的影响后为负5% [11] - 毛利率受到ERP实施影响，全年影响约50个基点，季度影响约150个基点 [39] - 2026财年指引预计有机销售额增长负1%至正2%，毛利率持平至上升50个基点 [44] - 广告支出占销售额比例维持在11%水平 [174] 各条业务线数据和关键指标变化 - 清洁业务表现符合预期，市场份额持续增长 [16] - Glad业务受到渠道转移影响，特别是向B&M等渠道的转移 [76] - 猫砂业务需要提升产品优势，计划通过创新和价格包装架构调整改善 [121] - Kingsford业务在Memorial Day期间执行不佳，但7月4日有所改善 [84] 各个市场数据和关键指标变化 - 美国市场受ERP实施影响显著，国际业务影响较小 [83] - 消费者转向购买小包装产品，公司正在调整产品组合以适应这一趋势 [72] - 电子商务渠道增长加速，公司正在优化该渠道的产品供应 [120] 公司战略和发展方向和行业竞争 - ERP系统实施是数字化转型的关键部分，将提升数据利用和运营效率 [5] - 2026财年将推出新的创新平台，主要集中在后半年 [20] - 在竞争激烈的品类如猫砂和垃圾袋市场，公司坚持高端定位和创新驱动策略 [157] - 计划通过产品创新和净收入管理措施逐步改善市场份额 [57] 管理层对经营环境和未来前景的评论 - 消费者面临不确定性，表现出价值寻求行为，但仍在购买体验性产品 [109] - 预计前半年品类增长疲软，后半年将有所改善 [22] - 关税预计将带来约4000万美元成本增加，将通过多种措施抵消 [62] - 行业促销环境总体理性，但在猫砂和垃圾袋品类竞争激烈 [59] 其他重要信息 - 公司将在2026年1月回购PG持有的Glad合资公司20%股份，预计带来50个基点的年度毛利率提升 [177] - ERP实施导致2025财年销售额虚高3.5%-4%，2026财年将相应减少同等幅度 [42] - 数字化能力建设支出在2025财年为6800万美元，2026财年预计为3500万美元 [163] 问答环节所有的提问和回答 问题: 销售表现与消费数据差异原因 - 差异主要来自库存去化和份额表现不及预期 [12][13] - 去年同期为恢复网络攻击后的份额进行了大量营销活动，今年减少了相应支出 [14] 问题: 后半年改善的驱动因素 - 主要来自公司可控因素如新产品推出和净收入管理措施生效 [68] - 创新计划主要集中在后半年，包括全新平台的推出 [20] 问题: ERP实施对财务数据的影响 - 零售商库存增加幅度高于预期，达到约2周库存量 [36] - 2025财年销售额虚高3.5%-4%，2026财年将反向影响同等幅度 [42] 问题: 中长期增长目标 - 仍需品类增长恢复至2%-2.5%的历史水平，国际和专业业务贡献1个百分点 [100] - 通过创新和净收入管理能力建设支持份额增长 [101] 问题: Glad和猫砂业务的战略 - 坚持高端定位，通过产品创新而非价格调整来应对竞争 [157] - 猫砂业务需要提升产品优势，改善执行和创新 [121] 问题: 毛利率展望 - 预计供应链通胀带来8000-9000万美元成本压力，但通过margin transformation措施抵消 [129] - Glad合资公司股份回购将带来约50个基点的年度毛利率提升 [177]