What does it mean for next year? Let's talk about it with Jerry Storch. He runs Storch Advisors. He is the former CEO at Hudson's Bay and Toys R Us. He was also vice chair at Target. Uh Jerry, listen. I I am surprised a little bit by the turnaround recently, last few weeks in Target stock. Maybe we can get to that. But your take overall on the numbers that you've seen so far for the holiday shopping season because it ain't over yet. This week, I can assure you, there's a lot of people out there looking for ...

Economist Paul Krugman warns that the United States has traded the inclusive, pro-worker recovery of the Joe Biden years for a stratified “Trump freeze,” creating a new K-shaped economy where the wealthy thrive while the working class falls behind.Reversal Of FortuneIn a new analysis, Krugman challenges the “lazy cynicism” that economic inequality is an unchangeable constant in American life. He points to Atlanta Fed data showing that the Biden presidency presided over a rare “Great Compression.”Between 202 ...

Joining us now to discuss holiday shopping winners and losers is John San Marco from Newberger Burman. John, thank you for being here. You just look at some of these winners.They're the some of the older mall names that were just as easily left for dead a few years ago. What's what do you think is behind the rebound in some of these names. >> Yep.Great to see you. Thanks for having me on. I think that you you set that you set up the explanation well.many many of the stocks you referenced and the XRT is pret ...

Welcome to Market Catalyst. I'm Inas Pereé. We're 30 minutes into the US trading day. Let's get to the three market catalysts we're watching this hour. First up, the retail winners and losers this holiday season. How spending is shaping up and how shopping secondhand is going mainstream. Plus, what to watch from Washington. how policies could influence markets, what investors need to know, and trading volume in the ETF market hitting a new yearly high. We'll take a look at some of the biggest ETF trends ahe ...

We're back here on Morning Trade Live. Last minute shoppers, now is the time to shine. We're uh here's where some of the uh biggest retail names are trading on Christmas Eve.Uh better get that shopping done. Uh you got about uh you know, not too long. Less than uh 12 hours till uh Christmas Day or about 12 hours uh until Christmas Day.Walmart up, Target rallying a little bit. Um Costco on that upgrade out of North Coast and then Amazon all higher. uh expectations for retail sales during the holiday shopping ...

The US economy exits 2025 with one phrase defining consumers — K-shaped. This year, the division between the economic haves and have nots widened, with sentiment souring as those in the middle of the income distribution were pressured by a softening labor market and feared inflation resulting from tariffs. As of November, the unemployment rate stood at a four-year high of 4.6%. The University of Michigan's final consumer sentiment reading of the year found that nearly two-thirds of respondents expect un ...

核心观点 - LPL Financial认为 在经历了由大型科技股引领的三年上涨后 投资者在进入2026年时面临的挑战是在一个持续沿收入线分化的经济中 平衡乐观与谨慎 [1] - 更广泛的环境可能仍将表现为股市具有潜在韧性 但也容易出现偶发性波动 同时碎片化的经济背景使债券市场难以向任一方向形成趋势性走势 政策决定继续对市场情绪和方向产生主导性影响 [2] 宏观经济背景 - 美国经济格局仍受后疫情时代财政和货币措施的扭曲 导致不同收入群体结果不均 这种K型经济持续存在 [2] - 劳动力市场预计将降温 职位空缺减少 工资增长放缓 雇主态度谨慎 但过去几年形成的结构性分化将保持不变 [3] - 高收入家庭因强劲的资产负债表 投资组合和房地产升值而受到支撑 将继续相对轻松地应对环境 而低收入工人 特别是服务业从业者 可能面临流动性挑战 债务负担加重以及对利率的敏感性增强 [3] - 密歇根大学11月消费者信心调查数据显示 股票持有比例最高的人群信心“显著”上升了11% 而整体信心却在下降 这说明了所谓的K型复苏的持续性 [3] 股市展望与驱动因素 - LPL股票策略师对2026年的股市持谨慎乐观态度 认为2025年的强劲表现并不意味着股市在2026年不会为投资者带来更多收益 [4][5] - 多个强大的周期应有助于推动2026年股市走高 最显著的是在2025年推动科技股上涨的人工智能投资周期 在美联储降息周期中 股市接近历史高位的成熟上涨态势也预示着2026年将是有回报的一年 [5] - 预计标准普尔500指数将从《OBBBA》法案的财政刺激中受益 从而支撑企业利润和现金流 [5] - 潜在的AI发展不及预期 长期利率可能面临上行压力 全球贸易紧张局势重燃以及地缘政治不稳定 仍将是股票投资者需要关注的关键风险 [5] 人工智能投资周期 - 人工智能仍然是LPL市场展望的核心 五大主要超大规模企业 Alphabet Amazon Meta Microsoft 和 Oracle 的资本支出预计将从2025年的4000亿美元跃升至2026年的大约5200亿美元 约占美国GDP的1.6% [7] - 人工智能资本投资浪潮可能是影响股市最强大的投资周期 就推动经济和公司利润的美元规模而言 目前没有什么比AI更大 并且这种情况短期内不太可能改变 [8] - AI投资的激增已转化为盈利增长 所谓的“七巨头”科技股在最近几个季度推动了标准普尔500指数超过一半的盈利增长 这一趋势预计将持续到2026年 不过巨头与更广泛市场之间的盈利差距可能逐渐缩小 可能引发向价值股的轮动 [9] 货币政策预期 - LPL预计美联储将在2026年降息75-100个基点 年初经济将适度放缓 随后反弹 [10] - 核心通胀预计将逐步减速 到年底降至2.5% 而劳动力市场仍然是影响可自由支配支出的关键变量 [10] 投资组合策略 - 鉴于市场对政策的敏感性以及科技股收益的集中性 LPL主张采取有纪律的 多元化的方法 [6] - 这意味着将投资组合分散到广泛的资产类别 市场板块和全球区域 以管理风险并寻找新的回报来源 同时继续相信通过另类投资等稳定器来增强投资组合的韧性 [6] - 过渡性的市场阶段往往为进入股市创造了最有利的切入点 鉴于2026年股市持续表现的强大潜力 应将这些时刻视为长期布局的明确机会 [11]

By Lucia Mutikani WASHINGTON, Dec 23 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy likely grew at a brisk clip in the third quarter, driven by solid consumer spending and business investment, but momentum appears to have since faded amid the rising cost of living and recent government shutdown. The Commerce Department's initial estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product on Tuesday is also expected to show the ​economy was supported by lower imports, which helped to curb the trade deficit. Much of the anticipated ac ...

宏观经济数据 - 美国第三季度GDP年化增长率达4.3% 远超市场预期的3.3% 显示经济持续韧性 [3] - 消费者支出保持强劲 但政府停摆可能拖累第四季度增长 [4] - 12月消费者信心指数数据受关注 因其反映了美国消费者中出现的K型经济分化 [5] 金融市场反应 - 超预期GDP数据公布后 标普500、纳斯达克100和道琼斯工业平均指数期货均下跌约0.2% [2] - 交易员对美联储明年1月行动预期更趋一致 约85%的押注预计美联储将暂停降息 较上周上升近10个百分点 [4] - 尽管近期回调 但多数押注仍预计明年年底前将有两次降息 [4] - 上周通胀意外下降和劳动力市场数据温和 使市场对2026年降息的押注基本保持不变 [6] - 标普500指数在近期反弹后 已接近历史高点 [6] 大宗商品与个股动态 - 黄金和白银价格持续上涨 延续惊人涨势 有望创下四十多年来的最佳年度表现 [2] - 诺和诺德美国上市股票在盘前交易中跳涨 因其减肥药Wegovy获得美国官方批准上市 [6] 市场日程 - 美国股市将于周三提前收市 并于周四圣诞节全天休市 [7]

美股市场表现 - 周二美股主要指数在涨跌之间小幅波动 标普500指数和以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数略高于平盘线 而蓝筹股基准道琼斯工业平均指数略低于平盘线[1] - 主要股指在连续三个交易日上涨后 于周二在微幅涨跌间切换[1] 大宗商品市场 - 黄金和白银在周二上午持续上涨 延续了惊人的涨势 有望创下四十多年来的最佳年度表现[2] - 铜价创下每吨12,000美元以上的新纪录[2] 宏观经济数据 - 第三季度GDP数据显示 美国经济年化增长率为4.3% 远高于预期的3.3% 表明经济持续具有韧性[3] - 该报告还发现 消费者支出在整个夏季保持强劲[3] - 12月消费者信心指数数据受到关注 因其反映了美国消费者中出现的K型经济分化 这一现象也在GDP报告中有所体现[5] 货币政策预期 - 强劲的GDP数据公布后 交易员减少了对1月降息的押注 市场目前定价美联储维持利率不变的概率为85% 高于一天前的80%和一周前的75%[4] - 尽管如此 多数押注仍认为到明年年底将有两次降息[4] - 上周的数据（包括通胀意外下降和劳动力市场表现温和）使市场对2026年降息的押注基本保持不变 推动华尔街股市近日反弹[4] 公司动态 - 丹麦制药公司诺和诺德在美国上市的股票在盘前交易中跳涨 因其减肥药Wegovy获得了美国官方批准上市[5] 市场日程 - 美国股市将于周三提前收市 并于周四全天休市 以庆祝圣诞节假期[6]