Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $3,680.20 per ounce on Monday, up 0.8% from Friday’s close of $3,649.40. Gold has opened above $3,600 daily since September 9. Investors are awaiting the Fed’s next interest rate decision on September 17. A 25-basis-point cut is widely expected, though President Trump told reporters Sunday that he expected “a big cut.” The Fed will also release its dot plot this week, a chart outlining how each Fed committee member predicts interest rates will evolve over the next few years. ...

At the risk of under-selling it, this has been an eventful week. With key inflation data milder than many had expected and jobless claims surging week over week, the U.S. economy looks primed for an interest rate cut at next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next week.Inflation on the retail side yesterday, via the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August, saw only mild tariff pass-throughs to the consumer. Headline CPI came in at +0.4%, 10 basis points (bps) warmer than expected, but general ...

Trading on Wall Street was quietly mixed early Friday as markets near the end of another record-setting week ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday.Futures for the S&P 500 were flat, while futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 0.2% and Nasdaq futures ticked up 0.1%.Following a mixed set of U.S. data on Thursday, markets are banking that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week, which should give the economy a boost.The Fed has been hesitant to cut interes ...

黄金上涨催化剂 - 央行购买和西方投资者担忧美国双赤字（预算赤字和贸易赤字）膨胀推动黄金创历史新高 [1][2] - 中国零售购买和央行多元化美元资产需求持续支撑金价 [1][2] - 长期结构性因素包括地缘政治风险和美元替代需求 [1][2] 黄金矿业公司投资机会 - Agnico Eagle Mines为首选标的 目标价209美元 市值700亿美元 具有低成本和高勘探潜力 [2][4] - 优质矿企特征为兑现产量指引 项目执行良好 资本支出部署高效 金价上涨时股价表现通常达金价涨幅2倍 [3] - 公司具备规模增长优势 拥有高前景项目组合 [4] 铂金市场动态 - 铂金ETF（PPLT）出现大幅资金流入 主因南非供应有限和俄罗斯供应渠道受限 [4][5] - 中国需求可能加速 驱动因素包括珠宝购买和氢能基础设施投资 [5] - 直接投资渠道有限 主要通过实物资产或南非上市公司获取敞口 [5] 利率政策对金属影响 - 美联储降息周期可能推动白银表现超越黄金 因白银在黄金牛市中通常有超额收益 [6][7] - 看好白银价格前景 覆盖标的包括Pan-American Silver（买入评级） [7] - 宽松货币政策环境可能进一步催化贵金属板块整体上行 [6][7]

Thursday, September 11, 2025After a mostly in-line inflation report ahead of today’s opening bell from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a surprise spike in new jobless claims spurred markets to record highs today. The Dow gained +617 points, +1.36%, to an all-time record closing high 46,108. The S&P 500 grew +55 points, +0.85%, to 6587 for the first time ever. The Nasdaq added +157 points, +0.72%, to an all-time high 22,043. Only the small-cap Russell 2000 is off its all-time high from late 2021, but stil ...

US stocks rose on Thursday as investors looked past mixed inflation data and a jump in jobless claims, betting that the Federal Reserve will move ahead with an interest rate cut next week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 115 points, or 0.2%. ...

市场预期 - 投资者等待即将公布的消费者价格数据以获取年末降息节奏的线索 [1]

就业数据大幅下修 - 美国劳工统计局大幅下修就业数据，显示2024年4月至2025年3月期间，美国经济实际创造的就业岗位比最初报告的数据少90万个以上 [2] - 此次大幅下修表明，在拜登政府执政期间和特朗普政府初期，就业市场状况远差于此前报告，尽管有《通胀削减法案》和《芯片法案》等刺激措施 [2] - 数据下修显示就业市场在关税政策实施前数月已开始恶化，表明特朗普的关税政策并非就业岗位流失的根本原因 [3] 通胀数据与货币政策影响 - 美国生产者价格指数（PPI）月度数据下降0.1%，远低于华尔街预期的增长0.3% [5] - 核心PPI同比上涨2.8%，远低于华尔街3.5%的预期，显示通胀得到控制，滞胀可能性较低 [5] - 疲弱的就业数据强化了美联储在本月晚些时候的会议上降息的可能性，这对股市是一个中期利好信号 [4] AI基础设施需求强劲 - AI基础设施和数据中心运营商Nebius Group获得微软一份为期五年、价值超过170亿美元的协议，为其数据中心提供专用AI基础设施容量 [7] - 该协议规模超过了Nebius Group自身的总市值，消息公布后其股价在周二交易时段飙升近50% [7] - 大型科技公司的巨额资本支出正惠及Nvidia等AI公司之外的“铲子型”公司，如Nebius Group，这些公司未来数年可能持续受益 [9] 云计算与AI增长前景 - 甲骨文公司公布其剩余履约义务（RPO，即未来收入增长）大幅增长359%，达到4550亿美元，显示出巨大的合同积压 [10] - 该公司在第一季度就获得了四份价值数十亿美元的合同，其首席技术官兼董事长拉里·埃里森预计RPO将达到万亿美元级别 [10] - 来自大型科技公司的多云数据库收入在本季度以惊人的1500%速度增长，表明AI繁荣可能仍处于早期阶段 [10] AI行业与互联网泡沫对比 - 当前AI热潮与1990年代末的互联网热潮相比，当今的AI巨头如Alphabet盈利能力强劲，资产负债表健康，债务极少 [14] - 在估值方面，2000年纳斯达克市盈率峰值达到200倍，而当前约为30倍，显示估值远未达到当时水平 [15] - 与互联网泡沫末期出现的爆发性、高潮性顶部不同，当前AI相关股票的强劲走势并未显示出类似的泡沫和狂热迹象 [17][19]

The Fed is widely expected to cut a quarter point uh next week, but there is starting to be this narrative of potentially a half point move. What camp are you in, Art. Well, I think the Fed's going to cut 75 basis points this year.They may well front and load that um and and go 50 basis points at this meeting and take the October meeting off and then go another 25 basis points in December. The reason I think they would frontload it is we saw the weakness in the labor market tick up in the July jobs report a ...

通胀数据预期 - 8月消费者价格指数报告将于周四发布 可能影响美联储利率决策 [1] - 该数据可能抑制美联储在9月后继续降息的积极性 [1]