美联储人事任命 - 美国总统特朗普提名Stephen Miran担任美联储理事 参议院将于美国东部时间周一晚5点30分进行程序性投票 晚8点左右进行最终确认投票 [1][2] - 若获确认 Miran将从白宫经济顾问委员会主席职位上无薪休假 而非完全辞职 其任期至1月31日 对应前任理事Kugler的原定任期届满日 [2][6] - Miran表示若获提名更长期限 将绝对辞去现任职务 本次提名任期仅为四个半月 [6] 利率政策动向 - 市场预期美联储将自2024年12月以来首次降息 9月会议将审议利率下调 但具体降息幅度仍存疑问 [3] - 美联储主席鲍威尔虽抵抗总统压力 但上月暗示经济状况（包括关税带来的不确定性）可能支持9月降息 [4] - 7月底联邦公开市场委员会以9-2投票结果维持利率不变 [4] 央行独立性争议 - Miran同时担任总统首席经济学家与美联储理事的双重角色引发对央行独立性的严重担忧 [3][5] - 批评者警告其存在可能试图影响委员会 并破坏美联储相对于白宫的独立性 [5] - 参议院银行委员会资深议员Elizabeth Warren强烈反对称"即使一天同时担任两个角色也属过多" [5]

美联储政策预期 - 美联储预计将在本周会议上降息 市场预期从年初的零次降息转向年内三次降息 高盛预测年内有五次降息其中三次在今年[4][5] - 降息幅度存在分歧 部分预期25个基点 部分认为可能降息50个基点 若降息50个基点可能被解读为政策滞后承认[5][21] - 降息逻辑基于通胀受控 能源价格大幅下降 食品价格下降 但住房市场因高利率受压制[2][3] 住房市场影响 - 住房市场出现复苏迹象 房屋销售价格连续四个月下降 全美50个大都市区中有39个出现价格下降[9] - 待售房屋库存增加50万套 供应增加促使价格下行 抵押贷款利率快速下降提振房地产行业信心[9] - 若降息落地 住房市场可能快速复苏 但需关注降息对价格的影响及可负担性变化[9][10] 劳动力市场状况 - 劳动力市场出现松动迹象 修订后的就业数据显示劳动力市场数据超过通胀数据[10] - 劳动力市场疲软可能影响住房市场 因就业安全感是购房决策的重要基础[26] - 多次降息可能逐步改善劳动力市场状况 但需要时间扭转现有负面势头[31] 特斯拉股票交易 - 埃隆·马斯克以10亿美元购入250万股特斯拉股票 这是自2020年以来首次公开市场增持 也是其最大规模买入[34] - 该交易推动特斯拉股价上涨约6% 单日上涨23-24美元[34] - 尽管买入金额巨大 但相对于马斯克总财富比例较小 市场更关注多名高管集体买入的集群效应[38][39] 政治与法律因素 - 特朗普政府寻求解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克 法律争议围绕"正当理由"解雇条款及正当程序权利[14][15] - 法院需权衡公共利益 判断保留被解雇官员是否造成更大危害[17] - 市场目前未对库克事件作出明显反应 但后续可能对"正当理由"定义产生更广泛市场影响[19][20]

Let's now ask New York Life's Lauren Goodwin. She joins us now. Lauren, record highs for the S&P and NASDAQ.It's like a broken record at this point. Did anybody, including yourself, really expect that we were going to see this constant ratcheting up. Not massively so, but a slow meltup of record highs throughout the course of 2025.I don't think so. Especially not after liberation day. And my estimation is that we are likely to see market jitters associated with all the policy change that we've been getting ...

美联储利率决议预期 - 市场普遍预期美联储本周将降息25个基点[1] - 标普500指数在4月初下跌后持续创纪录上涨 截至发稿时报6,613点[1] 机构对股市前景分歧 - 摩根斯坦利认为短期风险集中在疲弱劳动力数据与美联储行动迟缓的紧张关系 但长期看好并建议利用短期回调布局[2] - 该机构看涨情形下预测标普500指数到2026年中可能上涨9%至7,200点[2] - 摩根大通警告一旦美联储开始宽松 股市可能重新评估当前估值并定价下行风险[3][4] - 奥本海默承认利率决议后可能出现短期下跌 但预计在美国经济整体强劲支撑下任何疲软都是暂时的[4] 经济基本面担忧 - 策略师担忧温和降息可能无法完全应对经济放缓迹象 特别是劳动力市场问题[5] - 通胀仍高于美联储2%目标且关税压力持续 对宽松政策有效性存在疑虑[5] - 尽管存在警告 科技股上涨推动标普500指数保持看涨轨迹[5]

Traders fighting with near certainty say the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week. Joining us to discuss the former New York Fed president, Bill Dudley. But welcome back, sir.Let's get straight to it. What are you expecting to see this coming Wednesday. Right along with everybody else.I expect a quarter point cut. It's baked in the cake. I'd be surprised if it did do anything else.Do you think they'll guide much beyond that. Well, there'll be guidance because they're going to ...

The Fed gearing up for what may be the most chaotic meeting of all time. Want to get over to senior economics reporter Steve Leeman. He's got the details.Steve. >> Hey Andrew. Yeah, call it Fed meeting mayhem.While the Fed is likely to vote to cut rates this week, it's unclear how many officials will actually be voting with a potential Senate vote tonight. A court ruling today. There could be 10, 11, or 12 voters at the meeting.The administration asked an appeal court to overturn the Cook injunction over th ...

U.S. stock-market futures were little changed Sunday, as investors await what is expected to be the Fed's first interest-rate cut in nine months later this week. ...

市场对美联储降息预期的异常反应 - 美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上释放降息信号后 美元未如预期走弱 反而维持稳定[1][3] - 标普500指数和商品价格未出现预期中的全面上涨 仅黄金价格大幅攀升近10%[2] - 比特币先跌后涨 回归至鲍威尔讲话前水平 与传统风险资产走势出现背离[4] 债券市场的反常表现 - 30年期国债收益率未在鲍威尔讲话后立即下跌 而是在两周后疲弱就业数据公布才转跌[3] - 长期利率对货币政策的延迟反应被解读为异常且令人担忧的市场信号[3] - 法国政治僵局和英国债务危机担忧推动全球债券收益率近期走高[4] 黄金作为避险资产的突出表现 - 黄金价格持续创出新高 周五收盘报每盎司3680.70美元[2] - 市场将黄金视为终极避险工具 特别是在美联储面临政治压力加剧的背景下[4] - 黄金近10%的大幅上涨成为本轮市场波动中最显著的资产价格变动[2] 法国信用评级下调的影响 - 惠誉将法国信用评级从AA-下调至A+ 创该国欧元区内最低评级记录[5] - 评级机构认为法国财政纪律出现重大转变的可能性较低[5] - 法国债务危机可能推动部分避险资金流向美元资产 解释美元稳定性[5]

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to resume cutting interest rates on Wednesday by a quarter percentage point. ...

Friday, September 12, 2025At the risk of under-selling it, this has been an eventful week. With key inflation data milder than many had expected and jobless claims surging week over week, the U.S. economy looks primed for an interest rate cut at next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next week.Inflation on the retail side yesterday, via the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August, saw only mild tariff pass-throughs to the consumer. Headline CPI came in at +0.4%, 10 basis points (bps) warmer ...