October 6, 2026 01:05 PM GMT Federal Reserve Monitor | North America Financial conditions: Restrictive, but not unusually so At the September FOMC meeting, Chair Warsh said the Fed removed "a dose of accommodation." Are financial conditions accommodative? We take a fresh look at the stance of policy and financial conditions, and conclude that financial conditions are modestly restrictive; more of a headwind than brake. Key Takeaways | M October 6, 2026 01:05 PM GMT Federal Reserve Monitor North America Fina ...

October 7, 2026 11:23 PM GMT Global Macro Commentary | North America October 7: Dollar Gains, Bonds Diverge Higher oil and Middle East tensions supported USD; Fed minutes stayed hawkish; strong 10y auction checked the Treasury sell- off; French fiscal stress widened OAT spreads; RBI hiked 25bp; DXY at 102.27 (+0.4%); US 10y at 5.28 (+0.4bp). Higher energy prices and European fiscal concerns supported the dollar and pressured risk assets, while strong demand at the US 10y auction reversed part of the earlier ...

October 7, 2026 08:02 PM GMT Federal Reserve Monitor | North America September FOMC Minutes: Data dependent and alert to risks The FOMC raised rates in September and raised later rate projections. The minutes to the September FOMC meeting suggest a data-dependent tightening outlook rather than a more aggressive shift in policy or the reaction function. | M September FOMC Minutes: | Chief US Economist Michael.Gapen@morganstanley.com | +1 212 761-0571 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | Update | | October 7, 2026 08: ...

October 8, 2026 12:21 PM GMT Oil Data Digest | Europe Weekly Oil Stock Summary Total oil inventories drew by 8.4 mln bbls last week. Crude stocks drew by 9.7 mln bbls, driven by draws in the US and NW Europe. Refined product stocks built by 1.3 mln bbls, as a build in Singapore offset draws elsewhere. The charts below summarise all oil inventory data available on a weekly basis for the US from the EIA, Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam (ARA) from Genscape and PJK, Japan from PAJ, Singapore from IE, and the Fujair ...

While startups from clean tech to semiconductors are benefitting from AI capex, we see interesting business models emerging that increasingly view data centers as integrated AI factory systems that require coordination of everything from power to data movement orchestration. M US Thematics | North America October 9, 2026 04:01 AM GMT M Foundation Venture Vision: Data Center to AI Factory Key Takeaways We see a broadening opportunity set for startups that address various bottlenecks and/or attempt to future- ...

October 13, 2026 07:28 PM GMT The Oil Manual M Global Idea Exceptional Shipping Cost and Its Impact on Brent Prices Gulf crude exports are back within 10% of pre-conflict levels, yet Brent holds above $100/bbl. Supply, inventories and geopolitical risk all play a role, but one factor benefits Brent specifically: its short-haul nature at a time when freight is unusually expensive. Key Takeaways Exhibit 1: The majority of crudes that are often imported into Northwest Europe have landed costs of $110-120/bbl f ...

October 14, 2026 04:56 PM GMT U.S. Data Pulse: CPI | North America September CPI: Another strong reading Key Takeaways Exhibit 1: Core CPI and components Rents Core services ex-rents Vehicles Other core goods Core Contributions to Core CPI (m/m, %) Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Jul-26 Aug-26 Sep-26 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 -0.10 -0.20 -0.30 0.33 0.29 0.22 -0.02 0.21 0.38 0.20 0.22 0.30 0.23 0.09 0.09 0.22 Source: BLS, Haver Analytics, Morgan Stanley Research ...

October 15, 2026 05:16 PM GMT Inflation Drove the Treasury Sell-Off Through Real Yields Inflation and the Fed's response to it drove most of the Treasury sell-off. A hawkish Fed lifts real yields and lowers breakevens while higher energy prices lift breakevens, so real yields rose while breakevens barely moved. We don't buy the argument that this sell-off wasn't about inflation. Key Takeaways Click here for our Bloomberg Ticker Almanac. Please add me to your distribution list. | M October 15, 2026 05:16 PM ...

October 17, 2026 12:53 AM GMT US Rates Strategy | North America Risk Cracks Revive Treasury Haven Demand For all the hand-wringing about US Treasury debt levels - which are on track to hit the statutory limit of $41.1tr by March 2027 - it was acute investor misgivings about AI corporate debt sustainability that provided a resounding answer to whether US Treasuries still perform as a risk-off hedge. Key Takeaways M Idea Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Martin W Tobias, CFA Strategist Martin.Tobias@morganstanley.com ...

October 16, 2026 10:19 PM GMT Global Macro Commentary | North America October 16: AI Selloff Meets Oil Surge AI concerns deepen US equity sell-off; Brent reaches $110 amid geopolitical tensions; US rates twist-steepen; Indonesia equities fall 11.6%; DXY at 101.78 (-0.2%); US 10y at 5.07 (+1.5bp). US rates twist-steepen as rising oil prices and inflation concerns pressure the long end, while renewed weakness in AI-related equities supports front-end Treasuries and reduces expectations for an October Fed hike ...