行业投资评级 - 报告未明确给出具体行业投资评级 但整体对新兴技术和人工智能持积极态度 认为这些技术具有显著利润率扩张潜力 对市盈率有积极影响且尚未出现泡沫迹象 [11][12] 核心观点 - 经济增长放缓 主要受移民减少 政府支出下降和医疗保健行业就业停滞影响 过去两年实际增长率约2.5% 今年每季度实际增长率仅为1.2% [1][3] - 通胀并非主要问题 预计未来6-9个月内不会成为重大问题 美联储应开启谨慎降息周期 [1][7][8] - 企业优先考虑利润率而非劳动力投入 导致工资增长停滞和招聘收缩 但现有劳动收入年率增长3.7% [1][4] - 到2026年第三季度 美联储可能将利率降至3.5% 需关注信贷扩张和新兴技术对失业的影响 [1][9] - 市场预期利率在3%左右 最低可能达2.85% 预计区间为3%-4% [2][10] 宏观经济环境 - 劳动力供给不足导致GDP损失约40-50个基点 [7] - 模块化关税实施促使美联储应适当放松政策 [3] - 明年初将出现积极财政刺激效果 包括折旧等内容 以及积极信贷刺激效果和监管放松 这些因素至少会减少50个基点 [6] 美联储政策预期 - 美联储内部存在分歧 部分成员呼吁加息 但多数希望再降两次息 10月和12月加息50个基点的概率高于暂停 [1][5][6] - 中性利率大约在275到350基点之间 [8] - 如果出现负面就业数据 美联储可能需要加息50个基点 [6] 技术影响分析 - 人工智能和新兴技术推动资本投入 带来经济增长 但更多是交易视角而非经济层面 [1][7] - 新兴技术对劳动力市场的影响将在明年得到答复 [9] - 企业应优先考虑利润率而非劳动收入 劳动力收入占比可能下降但绝对收入水平将上升且增速超过通胀 [11] 市场机会 - Voles处于很低水平 每天仅有5个基点的变动 远期利率达3.5% 为套利创造机会 [13] - 新兴市场表现良好 如巴西和韩国 结构性改革即将到来或存在不对称性 [14] - 需要美元来持有英伟达股票 这对美元是利好因素 [14]

The Bank of England's interest-rate decision is due Thursday ...

We saw the preliminary benchmark revisions uh down 911,000. Um the revisions for June were the first negative revisions we've seen since December of 2020. You know, how can the Fed base important decisions on rate uh and what to do with the inter with the interest rates on data that seems to be as you've called it in the past noisy.>> So on on the QCW um the provision that we saw was almost exactly what we expected. It it was amazing how close the expectation was. So, and the reason for that is for the last ...

Dow Jones 30 Technical AnalysisThe Dow Jones 30 is relatively flat during the early part of the Wednesday session, which of course is waiting on the FOMC interest rate decision, the statement, the press conference and everything else that’s coming later. A lot of traders out there are looking for three interest rate cuts between now and the end of the year. And if there’s anything that throws cold water on that in the press conference or maybe just the tone of the statement, that could cause a little bit of ...

Asian equity markets ended on a mixed note on Wednesday as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision later in the day, with a 25-basis-point cut widely anticipated and already priced in. China and Hong Kong stocks lead gains China's Shanghai Composite Index advanced 0.37% to close at 3,876. ...

来源：滚动播报 印尼央行行长：利率决策考虑了美联储降息的可能性。 ...

The Fed is expected cut interest rates amid disagreements over policy and a succession battle ...

In a sign of how unusual this week's Federal Reserve meeting is, the decision it will make on interest rates — usually the main event — is just one of the key unknowns to be resolved when officials gather Tuesday and Wednesday.For now, it's not even clear who will be there. The meeting will likely include Lisa Cook, an embattled governor, unless an appeals court or the Supreme Court rules in favor of an effort by President Donald Trump to remove her from office. ...

It certainly looks like they're going to do the 25 unless they want to surprise the market. And if they feel the market needs to be surprised, they could do 50. But there's no indication that we need the surprise tone just fine.The rate decisions are the least interesting of everything on Wednesday. There are three other things to look for. The first is the post-meeting statement.How many dissenters are there. How many members actually wanted a 50 basis point rate cut. And are there any dissenters that didn ...

Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $3,680.20 per ounce on Monday, up 0.8% from Friday’s close of $3,649.40. Gold has opened above $3,600 daily since September 9. Investors are awaiting the Fed’s next interest rate decision on September 17. A 25-basis-point cut is widely expected, though President Trump told reporters Sunday that he expected “a big cut.” The Fed will also release its dot plot this week, a chart outlining how each Fed committee member predicts interest rates will evolve over the next few years. ...