4 June 2025 | 4:26PM EDT Macro at a Glance: Latest views and forecasts Download PDF | Download PowerPoint To subscribe to Macro at a Glance, visit the page and click "Follow." Changes to flag this week: n Raised our 2025 LME aluminum price forecast to $2,400/mt (from $2,300/mt) to reflect a less severe-than-expected hit to global activity from the trade war but lowered our 2026 price forecast to $2,230/mt (from $2,540/mt) to reflect likely softer balances further out. Watching n Globally, we expect real GDP ...

4 June 2025 | 5:01AM BST Strategy Espresso: Section 899 and European Equities: Navigating Risks, Unlocking Flows The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" extends the 2017 tax cuts and introduces new tax and spending measures. While US equity markets may benefit in the short term — particularly from CAPEX and R&D — one of the most consequential provisions for global investors is Section 899. Section 899 introduces retaliatory tax measures against non-US individuals, corporations, and governments from countries that ...

30 May 2025 | 1:56PM EDT Jenny Ma +1(212)357-5775 | jenny.ma@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Daniel Chavez +1(212)357-7657 | daniel.chavez@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Kartik Jayachandran +1(212)855-7744 | kartik.jayachandran@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. c45a43530f604d12bcb9a82b5aa ...

4 June 2025 | 7:59PM HKT China Logistics Intense price competition to further weigh on express profitability; Buy integrated players SF/JDL & leader ZTO Our China express delivery coverage concluded 1Q25 results with better-than-expected volumes yet widened year-on-year declines in economy parcel ASPs, leading to group GP/EBIT yoy declines for most franchise-based express delivery names, while integrated full-service logistics service providers delivered relative earnings strength/resilience (SF 1Q EBIT +20 ...

4 June 2025 | 4:10PM EDT GS SUSTAIN: AI/Data Center Power Surge & Reliability How higher costs and US policy shifts impact the Green Reliability Premium Brian Singer, CFA +1(212)902-8259 | brian.singer@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Brendan Corbett +1(415)249-7440 | brendan.corbett@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Carly Davenport +1(212)357-1914 | carly.davenport@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Brian Lee, CFA +1(917)343-3110 | brian.k.lee@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Strong demand and government actions are ...

4 June 2025 | 5:54PM EDT What's Top of Mind in Macro Research: Fiscal policy focus, ECB projections, US jobs report This week: Transcript Fiscal policy focus We continue to expect the budget reconciliation bill currently making its way through Congress will have only a modest impact on the US fiscal balance relative to current policy. Similarly, we think that the corporate provisions in the bill will have only modest direct impacts on S&P 500 earnings and cash flows. Specifically, we estimate that the provi ...

USA: ADP Employment, ISM Services Below Expectations; S&P Services PMI Revised Up; Lowering Payroll Growth Forecast to +110k BOTTOM LINE: According to the ADP report, private sector employment increased by 37k in May, below expectations, and employment in April was revised down. The ISM services index declined by more than consensus expectations in May. In the ISM services press release, respondents highlighted that the tariffs had led to cost increases in their industries. The S&P Global services PMI was r ...

3 June 2025 | 9:27AM EDT US Monthly Inflation Monitor: May 2025: The Tariff Boost Remains Small for Now but Should Rise From Here (Rindels) Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC n Recent inflation trends: n Factors influencing core goods prices: Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis ...

报告行业投资评级 未提及相关内容 报告的核心观点 - 预计美国对中国商品的有效关税税率在今年剩余时间维持在40%左右，2025年中国实际GDP增长4.6% [3] - 经济增长动力尚未从外部需求向国内需求实现有意义的转变，出口表现强劲，零售销售部分得益于政府补贴的以旧换新计划，房地产市场和劳动力市场表现疲软 [3] - 人民币兑美元可能开启多年升值之路，因其被低估、中国制造业竞争力强、贸易顺差或持续增长，且升值有助于提升中国GDP占美国GDP的比重 [3] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 关税与GDP增长预测 - 过去两个月美国对中国关税大幅波动，4月初关税激增使美国对中国商品有效关税税率从31%跃升至107%，将2025年中国实际GDP增长预测从4.5%下调至4.0%；5月初关税超预期回调，有效税率降至39%，将预测上调至4.6% [4] - 最新制造业PMI新出口订单分项指数4月大幅下降后5月企稳，中国风险资产如股价和美元兑人民币汇率已收复4月初失地 [4] - 美国贸易政策不确定性指数从4月高点回落，但关税风险可能持续，预计美国对中国商品有效关税税率今年剩余时间维持在40%左右 [7] 各行业表现 - **出口**：尽管今年美国关税大幅提高，中国出口仍具韧性，4月出口价值同比增长8.1%，数量同比增长13%，5月出口保持稳定，一季度经常账户盈余接近GDP的4%，1 - 4月商品贸易顺差达3700亿美元，比去年同期高1100亿美元 [8] - **零售销售**：1 - 4月零售销售同比增长4.7%，高于2024年的3.5%，主要受政府补贴的消费品以旧换新计划推动，相关类别1 - 4月销售同比增长超20%，但该计划的推动作用最终会消退 [9][11] - **房地产市场**：4月中国房地产市场走弱，价格和活动下滑，新开工较峰值下降约75%，销售下降约50%，目前处于去库存阶段，政府资助的去库存计划实施缓慢，抑制了房地产对实际GDP增长的贡献 [16] - **劳动力市场**：劳动力市场是当前中国经济最令人担忧的方面，从各类PMI就业分项指数看，就业市场极其疲软，尽管上半年实际GDP同比增长有望超5%，但劳动力市场疲软可能促使7月政治局会议进一步放松政策 [17] 人民币升值原因 - 据外汇策略团队估计，人民币相对美元被大幅低估，与经济基本面的显著偏差增加了向“公允价值”调整的风险 [23] - 中国制造业竞争力强，多数贸易伙伴未对中国产品加征高额关税，中国商品贸易顺差每月超1000亿美元且无放缓迹象 [24] - 中国政策制定者可能希望人民币兑美元升值，以提升中国GDP相对美国GDP的比重，重建市场信心，缓解资本外流压力，促进经济向消费转型 [28] 人民币升值的阻碍与应对 - 有人认为人民币升值会在中美关税升级时损害中国出口，且中国政府可能希望保持货币疲软，但中国产品价格优势明显，渐进升值不会大幅改变制造业竞争力，且贸易加权人民币对出口影响更大，近期人民币对主要贸易伙伴货币已贬值，升值可部分或完全被美元走弱抵消，还可缓解其他国家担忧 [29] - 人民币兑美元升值时机和节奏可能受政策因素影响，如中美贸易谈判，预计人民币兑美元将逐步升值，政府有意愿和能力使美元兑人民币汇率在中长期呈温和下降趋势 [30][34]

We attended Singapore International Ferrous Week from 26-30 of May, meeting with industry players, including iron ore miners, steel producers and investors throughout the week. We highlight our key takeaways for the iron ore price outlook, supply and demand. 4 June 2025 | 2:45PM BST Metals Comment: Singapore International Ferrous Week Feedback: Hard To Escape The Bearish Thesis Singapore International Ferrous Week Feedback: Hard To Escape The Bearish Thesis We attended Singapore International Ferrous Week f ...