报告行业投资评级 - 对迪士尼公司（DIS）股票评级为买入 [14] - 对福克斯公司（FOXA）股票评级为买入 [16] - 对康卡斯特公司（CMCSA）股票评级为买入 [17] - 对华纳兄弟探索公司（WBD）股票评级为中性 [19] - 对派拉蒙全球公司（PARA）股票未评级 [21] 报告的核心观点 - 2025年第二季度至今，广播和有线电视的黄金时段商业收视率大多同比下降，如广播非体育黄金时段商业收视率同比下降18%，含体育的广播黄金时段商业收视率下降9%，有线电视黄金时段商业收视率下降24% [2][6] - 2025年第二季度至今，L3总日有线电视收视率方面，福克斯（FOX）增长26%，而迪士尼（DIS）、派拉蒙（PARA）、华纳兄弟探索（WBD）、AMCX和康卡斯特（CMCSA）均下降 [3] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 电视收视率跟踪 - 刷新美国媒体覆盖公司（迪士尼、康卡斯特、派拉蒙、华纳兄弟探索、福克斯）的尼尔森电视收视率跟踪数据，涵盖传统ACM黄金时段和全天收视率，本次聚焦2025年5月25日当周的C3有线电视和广播收视率以及2025年6月8日当周的L3有线电视收视率 [1] 各公司收视率情况 - 广播黄金时段：2025年第二季度至今，广播网络黄金时段收视率（C3，A18 - 49人群）同比下降9%，其中CBS增长15%，FOX下降33%、NBC下降21%、ABC下降8%；排除体育后，广播网络黄金时段收视率同比下降18%，ABC、CBS、NBC和FOX均下降 [7][8] - 有线电视黄金时段：2025年第二季度至今，有线电视网络黄金时段收视率（C3，A18 - 49人群）同比下降24%，差于第一季度的19%降幅；总日收视率方面，迪士尼、派拉蒙、华纳兄弟探索、康卡斯特和AMCX下降，FOX增长16%，主要由福克斯新闻频道增长25%推动 [9] - L3总日有线电视：2025年第二季度至今，迪士尼、派拉蒙、华纳兄弟探索、AMCX和康卡斯特的总日收视率下降，福克斯增长26%，增长由福克斯新闻频道43%的增长驱动 [3] 各公司估值与目标价 - 迪士尼公司：12个月目标价148美元，基于分部加总估值法 [14] - 福克斯公司：12个月目标价61美元，基于7.0倍NTM + 1Y EBITDA加战略投资价值 [16] - 康卡斯特公司：12个月目标价40美元，基于分部加总估值法 [17] - 华纳兄弟探索公司：12个月目标价10.50美元，基于分部加总估值法 [19] - 派拉蒙全球公司：未评级 [21]

9 June 2025 | 5:15PM EDT Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affil ...

TSMC (2330.TW/TSM) Risk/reward now skewed to the upside June 2025 Bruce Lu Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taiwan 886-2-2730-4185 bruce.lu@gs.com For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, go to https://research.gs.com and https://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. c45a43530f604d12bcb9a82b5aa6b9f6 Improving sentiment with limited earnings downside Supply chain mismatch mitigated; AI order cut now seems less likely Limited earnings downside from here 70 118 322 585 923 1,287 69% 173% 82% 58% 200% 18 ...

9 June 2025 | 1:37PM HKT China: Export growth moderated in May on continued drop in US-bound exports Bottom line: China's trade growth moderated in May despite the substantial tariff rollback between the US and China, and came in below consensus expectations (exports: +4.8% yoy, imports: -3.4% yoy). The moderation in headline export growth reflects the continued fall in China's exports to the US with another 17% sequential decline after seasonal adjustment. The decline in imports appears widespread, consist ...

股票头⼨及关键⽔平 --- Eq Positioning and Key Levels Market Insights | Markets | Equities 市场洞察 | 市场 | 股票 Eq Positioning and Key Levels 股票头⼨及关键⽔平 Please see below for a consolidated recap of the various GS positioning metrics. 请⻅下⽅⾼盛各类仓位指标的综合回顾。 Summary: 摘要： RTY. CTAs are still net short -$1.8bn of RTY. We estimate this cohort will buy ~$2.5bn over the next week here, and $5.2bn over the next month. 1. CTA Corner: Global estimates are rather benign across the board, with the exception of CTA ⻆：除 RTY 外，全球预估普遍较为温和。CTAs ...

9 June 2025 | 4:57AM EDT n China freight flows (week ending Thursday, June 5) finally showed a sequential uptick in laden vessels from China to the US (+9%), with still steep but a bit less of a YOY decline (-25% vs -31%). The YOY declines, however, still show that if the consumer remains resilient – we would likely need more goods at some point in 2H25. o Port Optimizer sequentials tend to support the notion that China should continue to show sequential upticks in aggregate over the next two weeks as the e ...

(*seasonally adjusted by GS) Main points: 1. China's headline CPI inflation was unchanged at -0.1% yoy in May, as the decline in goods prices was offset by higher services prices (Exhibit 1). In month-on-month terms, headline CPI fell to +0.5% (annualized, seasonally adjusted) in May (vs. +0.8% mom s.a. ann in April). 2. In year-over-year terms, food inflation edged down to -0.4% yoy in May from -0.2% yoy in April. This is primarily due to lower prices of fresh vegetables (Exhibit 2). Among major food items ...

10 June 2025 | 7:14AM HKT China Online Travel Agencies JD's reported entry into travel booking industry. Analysis on economics and potential impact on OTAs Media (news link) reported that JD is expanding into the travel and hospitality booking industry by providing its users competitive pricing on airfares and hotel room bookings. Highlighting its commitment, the company is reportedly beefing up its business development team by recruiting staff/talent from other OTAs with as much as 2-3x more salaries. We n ...

10 June 2025 | 12:24AM BST Andrea Ferrario +44(20)7552-4353 | andrea.ferrario@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Christian Mueller-Glissmann, CFA GOAL Kickstart US exceptionalism - fundamental shifts and technical headwinds from Section 899 Last week both US Manufacturing and Services ISM came in below consensus, while NFPs growth slightly beat consensus (but still points to slowing US growth) and the unemployment rate remained flat. Key economic data releases this week will be US CPI and UofM reports. The ...

市场洞察 - Marquee 市场洞察|市场|股票 股票——上涨尾部 旋⻛般的⼏个⽉ 从本届政府迄今为⽌的⾏动中可以清楚地看出，其⽬标并⾮推翻这艘巨轮，⽽是将其引向有利于 美国经济⻓远利益的⽅向，同时推动盟友和伙伴承担各⾃的责任，即分担责任，在解决全球安 全、稳定和⼈道主义援助等问题上发挥更⼤作⽤。这是为了减轻美国不成⽐例的负担，同时仍然 保持其在从军事到科技等多个领域的全球主导影响⼒。我知道——实现这⼀⽬标说起来容易做起 来难，但我们应该以开放的⼼态来审视和评估。 对于市场⽽⾔，我们知道政策的⾛向。我们已经从负⾯情绪和超卖的深渊中反弹。虽然经济显⽰ 出⼀些疲软迹象，但总体表现良好。仓位和情绪指标保持平衡，因此仍有重新冒险的空间。短期 内若没有重⼤冲击，⻛险倾向于股市进⼀步上涨。 标准普尔5⽉创下1990年以来最佳表现，跑赢新兴市场股票。"五⽉抛售，离场"的呼声就此终结 吧 资料来源：GIR。Glissman。2025年6⽉2⽇。过往业绩不代表未来业绩。 周期性股票与防御性股票的表现反映了美国实际GDP约2%的增⻓环境。⾼盛经济学家预计，未来 四个季度实际GDP增⻓率将达到约1%。 这⾥有两种可能的解释：1/ ...