The U.S. Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Sept. 17, lowering the federal funds rate to a new range of 4.00% to 4.25% — its first reduction in nine months. The move, backed by 11 of 12 voting members, came amid weaker labor market data, slower consumer spending, and an uptick in unemployment. Markets had fully priced in the cut. Prediction markets on Polymarket showed a 93% probability ahead of the decision, leaving little surprise for traders. Related: What are yield ...

美联储利率决议 - 美联储宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间从4.25%-4.50%下调至4.00%-4.25% [1] - 这是2025年首次降息，标志着美联储进入逐步宽松的新阶段 [2] - 12位投票委员中有11位支持此次降息，唯一反对者新任理事Stephen Miran主张更大幅度的50个基点降息 [3] 利率预测点阵图 - 点阵图中值预测显示，预计到今年年底还将进行大约两次25个基点的降息 [4] - 但点阵图内部预测极为分散，六名成员不希望降息，一名成员反对此次降息，两名成员认为今年应再降息一次 [5] - 鹰派观点占据主导，导致国债收益率和美元走强 [5] 经济预测摘要 - 美联储维持2025年通胀预期在3.1%不变，同时将GDP增长预测从6月份的1.4%上调至1.6% [5] - 失业率预测从当前的4.3%上调至4.5%，与6月预测一致 [7] 鲍威尔主席讲话基调 - 鲍威尔将此次降息称为“风险管理式降息”，强调尽管通胀近期小幅上升，但政策天平已向保护就业倾斜 [2] - 其讲话基调相对中性但略偏鸽派，指出劳动力市场正在“真正冷却”，描绘了就业风险的“非常不同的图景” [8][14] - 鲍威尔承认点阵图观点不一“并不令人惊讶”，并指出“不存在无风险的政策路径”，当前形势对政策制定者而言“相当困难” [14] 市场反应 - 股市反应不一，道指上涨约0.50%，标普500指数基本持平，纳斯达克指数小幅下跌 [9] - 10年期国债收益率升至4.076%，美元指数上涨约0.3% [10] - 市场反应平淡，反映出投资者对点阵图的分歧感到不确定 [10] 未来政策路径与影响因素 - 未来通胀数据（CPI、PCE）和就业市场表现将是决定美联储能否继续降息的关键 [10][11] - 若通胀持续上升，鲍威尔保护就业的政策倾向将面临挑战；若通胀稳定或下降且就业市场仅温和恶化，美联储可能按点阵图预测继续降息 [11] - 前总统特朗普的关税政策及最高法院的相关裁决仍是未解之不确定性因素 [11] 对美联储政策的批评 - 有观点批评美联储未能有效应对住房市场问题，认为建筑业裁员是失业问题的一部分，降息应能刺激购房需求但美联储行动不足 [12] - 该观点将美联储形容为“鸵鸟”，对当前经济状况视而不见，并对点阵图表示失望，认为随着失业问题持续，美联储应至少再降息三次 [13][15] 对投资环境的总体评估 - 此次降息开启了新的降息周期，但市场反应谨慎，感觉像是一个有条件的周期，其持续取决于后续经济数据是否配合 [16] - 对投资者而言，近期的背景是支持性的，包括更低的借贷成本和美联储保护劳动力市场的意图，但整体降息基调不如许多市场参与者所期望的那么鸽派 [16]

The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point, lowering the upper bound of its federal funds rate to 4.25%. The decision, which brings rates to their lowest level since November 2022, was widely expected by markets after weeks of weakening labor data and softer inflation readings. FOMC Trims Target Range by 25 bps, Citing Softer Jobs and Elevated Risks The move trims the target range from 4.50% to 4.25%, marking the Fed’s first rate cut since earlier this year. Chair Jerome P ...

Stock Market News From Sept. 17, 2025: Dow Gains After Fed Decision Last Updated: CONCLUDED Updated 2 hours ago Stocks Stall After Wall Street Finally Gets Its Rate Cut By Connor Smith The Federal Reserve finally cut interest rates, and Wall Street didn't know what to do with itself. The S&P 500 dipped 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 260 points, or 0.6%. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.3%. The major indexes initially spiked after the Federal Open Market Committee said it decided to lower the federal ...

1、近期通胀有所上升，仍处于相对高位。商品价格上涨是今年通胀上升的主要原因，关税对通胀的总 体影响仍有待观察。 2、劳动力市场面临下行风险。劳动力市场目前的情况并非全由移民因素导致，需 求明显放缓。现在的招聘率很低，解雇率也很低。当看到更多弱势群体在找工作方面遇到困难时，就表 明劳动力市场正在走弱。 3、认为无需迅速调整利率，今天降息50个基点（的想法）并未获得广泛支 持。 4、劳工统计局正在努力解决就业数据修正背后的因素，年度就业数据修正几乎与我们预期完全一 致，美联储从劳工统计局（BLS）获取的数据仍然足以满足我们的工作需求，需要更高的回应率来降低 数据波动性。 5、欢迎新的委员会成员，委员会在米兰加入后仍致力于履行双重使命。坚决致力于维护 美联储的独立性。 6、在19位政策制定者中，有10位写下预计今年剩余时间内将降息两次或更多次；另 外10位预计降息次数少于这个水平。 7、关于留任美联储的计划暂无新消息。对库克的诉讼案发表评论 不合适。 来源：滚动播报 ...

25 basis point rate cut. The Federal Reserve lowering their benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to a new range of four to four and a quarter percent and signaling two more rate cuts this year. The decision was not unanimous.Newly minted Fed Governor Steven Myron dissented preferring to cut by 50 basis points instead of 25. As for the breakdown for rate projections this year, nine officials seeing three rate cuts in total this year. Six officials seeing one cut, one saw no cuts, and one saw ...

The U.S. central bank delivered an expected 0.25% rate cut at its September meeting. | Credit: Credit: Alex Wong/Getty Images Key Takeaways The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.00–4.25%, the first reduction since December. The move reflects the Fed’s balancing act between a slowing labor market and still-elevated inflation. Bitcoin and other assets moved slightly down after the announcement. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve delivered its first rate cut since December, trimming th ...

Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by a quarter point as expected to a new range of four to four and a quarter percent. New Fed governor and former CEO current CE chair uh Steven Byron dissenting in favor of 50 basis point cut. The median Fed official looking for two more rate cuts this year but just barely.I'll get you details on that in a second. The statement importantly says the balance of risks have shifted. Downside risk to employment has risen.Job gains have slowed. Unemployment has edged up and ...

With your Fed decision. Here is my make. The answer to your question, John, is a quarter percentage point cut as expected.But Fed officials also see two more cuts this year in October and December, according to the new DOT plot. There was one dissent, and that is from Stephen Myron, the Trump representative on the board who wanted no cuts. This he wanted rather, to cuts this time 50 basis points next year.The committee sees only one cut so far, but the dispersion is very wide and the very bottom for next ye ...

The Federal Reserve approved a quarter-point interest rate cut Wednesday, the first in nine months, with officials judging that recent labor-market softness outweighed setbacks on inflation. ...