While the idea of betting on a strong enterprise in the hopes that it will rise even higher is a valid one, arguably most investors prefer the opposite concept: finding undervalued stocks – especially those that Wall Street may be ignoring – that have a chance of shocking everyone.It’s a riskier approach, to be sure. When betting on a strong enterprise, you’re typically dealing with a robust business that enjoys a predictable revenue stream. When looking at undervalued stocks, the business itself may be str ...

Colin Anderson Productions pty ltd/DigitalVision via Getty Images We previously covered ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ:ASML) (OTCPK:ASMLF) in June 2024, discussing why we had maintained our Buy rating despite the stock's premium valuations and stock prices. Given that generative AI remained in the early innings of hypergrowth, with multiple semiconductor and server companies guiding robust numbers and intensifying capex to capture the booming AI market, we had believed that the lithography equipment company ...

新荣记张勇的战略调整 - 新荣记创始人张勇在2023年7月决定由攻转守，认为品牌存续比规模扩张更重要，提出"品牌如何贵气"的核心观点 [4] - 张勇反思餐饮行业浮躁现象，强调专业性和专注度，以葡萄酒庄20年培育期为例说明时间对品牌价值的关键作用 [5] - 东京开店计划体现长期品牌战略，目标用5-10年将新荣记打造成东京知名中餐品牌，进而成为全球品质中餐代表 [5] 中国电商海外广告投放变化 - Temu和Shein二季度在Meta广告投放合计4亿美元，较去年三季度峰值明显回落，主因Temu控制美国业务比重及Shein上市前低调策略 [6][7] - Meta二季度亚太区广告收入增速从41%放缓至28%，YouTube广告收入增速环比下降8个百分点至13% [6][7] - Meta通过AI算法优化实现广告收入383.3亿美元（同比+21.7%），股价大涨7%，形成与微软/Google的AI商业化差距 [7] 咖啡行业竞争态势 - 星巴克中国二季度同店销售额下滑14%，客单价与交易量均降7%，县级市场扩张速度低于9000家门店目标 [7][9] - 瑞幸营收创新高但净利润连续两季度下滑，库迪咖啡出现大规模闭店，茶饮品牌霸王茶姬已超4500家门店冲击咖啡市场 [9] - 星巴克中国新店首年投资回报率仅70%，县级市场维持30元定价策略但面临本土化挑战 [7][9] 红牛商标权纠纷进展 - 长沙中院一审驳回泰国天丝对华彬经销商商标侵权诉讼，但销售禁令仍有效，双方就50年商标使用权各执一词 [11][12][13] - 泰国天丝声明将上诉并举报程序违法，北京红牛指控泰国方"内外勾联"另立公司替代中国红牛 [12][13] - 微信公众号出现三个"红牛"账号分属泰国天丝、授权运营商普盛食品及华彬集团运营 [11] 半导体行业动态 - 费城半导体指数单日涨6.7%，英伟达市值单日增3290亿美元创纪录，AMD涨4.4%/ASML涨9% [14] - 上涨动因包括：前期超跌（英伟达月跌16%）、科技公司AI基建投入增加、美联储降息预期强化 [15][16] - 台积电2023年员工平均年薪53.8万元（当地收入3.5倍），南京厂硕士年薪35万元，显著高于中芯国际15万元 [18] 汽车行业关键数据 - 理想汽车7月交付5.1万辆创纪录，L6车型占比40%，前7月累计完成下调后年度目标50% [19] - 宝马二季度汽车业务利润率降至8.4%，息税前利润降10%至38.8亿欧元，中国市场需求疲软 [20] - 丰田营业利润增速放缓至17%（1.3万亿日元），中国业务承压且造假丑闻持续影响 [27] 其他行业要点 - 万豪大中华区二季度客房均价下滑4%，表现仍优于行业平均水平 [23] - 字节跳动新加坡办公室食物中毒事件涉及130人，云海肴和莆田两家供应商被停业调查 [22] - 达美航空因CrowdStrike系统故障损失5亿美元，考虑法律索赔 [25][26]

The chip equipment maker could be excluded from new export restrictions.Shares of ASML Holdings (ASML 7.38%), the world's largest provider of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, were moving higher today. They were buoyed by an analyst upgrade last night, news that it could be excluded from U.S. chip export restrictions on China, and a broad surge in chip stocks, following a strong earnings report from Advanced Micro Devices.As of 10:18 a.m. ET on Wednesday, the stock was up 7.4%. ASML bounces backJuly ha ...

The Dutch semiconductor giant ASML Holding NV (NASDAQ: ASML) was among the first companies to offer a significant stock market reaction to the reports that multiple crucial U.S. allies – the Netherlands, Japan, and South Korea being the three named by press time on July 31 – could be exempt from President Biden’s restrictions on high-tech exports to China.The stock, which has already offered a substantial 19.99% rise in 2024 but suffered a major 16.76% drop in the last 30 days, rocketed in Wednesday pre-mar ...

Key TakeawaysDutch firm ASML's shares soared as the U.S. reportedly prepares to exclude chip-equipment makers in the Netherlands, Japan, and South Korea from its latest set of trade curbs aimed at China's tech advance.According to Reuters, shipments from several exporters of key chipmaking equipment won’t be included from a Biden administration expansion of the Foreign Direct Product Rule next month.Places whose exports would be affected by the expanded curbs would include Taiwan, Israel, Singapore, and Mal ...

ToplineChip stocks rallied on Wednesday following a report the United States will exempt allies like Japan and the Netherlands from expected trade restrictions on advanced semiconductor technology, paring losses in the wake of a bruising tech stock rout the day before as investors question whether big tech’s big bets on AI are paying off.Semiconductor stocks rallied on Wednesday. Getty Images Key FactsStock for major computer chip companies in Japan, the Netherlands and South Korea soared after Reuters repo ...

Shares of ASML jumped as much as 10% on Wednesday after a Reuters report suggested that the company could be exempted from expanded export restrictions on chipmaking gear to China.Reuters reported on Thursday that the U.S. is considering expanding the so-called foreign direct product rule, but that allies that export key chipmaking equipment — including Japan, the Netherlands and South Korea — will be excluded.Exports to China from countries including Israel, Taiwan, Singapore and Malaysia will be impacted ...

公司表现 - ASML Holding的股价年初至今上涨13.9%，表现不及行业16.8%的回报率和Zacks计算机与技术板块17.2%的增长率 [1] - 公司的韧性归功于其全面的产品组合，能够提供具有成本效益的解决方案，支持各种应用 [1] - 公司在内存市场的扩展地位和不断增加的设计胜利是积极因素 [1] 行业趋势 - 半导体行业今年表现强劲，预计2024年下半年将加速复苏，得益于人工智能尤其是生成式AI的普及 [3] - 晶圆制造设备支出的改善对ASML是重大利好 [3] - 先进节点的需求增加，支持5G、AI和高性能计算解决方案等增长驱动因素 [3] - 全球电子行业的长期趋势预计将继续推动公司在半导体市场的增长 [3] 长期增长驱动因素 - ASML正在加大投资，提升产能和技术创新，以利用上述行业趋势 [5] - 公司正在提高逻辑和内存客户的曝光工具利用率，以应对不断增长的内存需求 [5] - 2024年第二季度，公司的净系统订单为56亿欧元，其中25亿欧元来自EUV订单 [5] - 低数值孔径（NA）和高NA机器的优势是积极因素，预计2024年EUV收入将增长 [6] - 公司正在从全球新建的晶圆厂获得订单，预计2024年下半年和2025年将出现周期性上升 [6] 财务预测 - Zacks对2024年收入的共识估计为301.8亿美元，同比增长1.3% [7] - 2024年收益的共识估计为20.30美元，同比下降5.7%，过去30天估计上调0.9% [7] 市场挑战 - 市场不确定性、持续的通胀、地缘政治紧张局势和技术创新成本的上升是公司的担忧 [1] - 来自Lam Research和Applied Materials等主要行业参与者的竞争加剧，增加了定价压力 [1] - 美国计划加强对中国芯片出口的限制，这对公司是负面影响 [8] - 公司预计2024年毛利率将低于2023年，原因是高NA成本增加 [9] - 逻辑领域的势头减弱对公司不利，预计今年逻辑收入将低于去年 [9] - 公司目前以32.68倍的远期12个月市盈率交易，高于行业的27.27倍，估值较高 [9]

半导体设备股现状 - 半导体设备股如ASML虽基本面稳固但正在修正且有深度修正趋势部分源于第三季指引不温不火更多是行业轮动和政治风险包括中美关税出口限制及美国选举对台湾影响 [1] ASML公司概况 - ASML当前股价872.75美元较之前下跌60.06美元跌幅6.44%52周股价范围在563.99美元到1110.09美元股息收益率0.73%市盈率44.57目标股价1147.80美元 [2] - 公司股价修正过度即将出现买入信号因为行业轮动和政治风险不会改变半导体制造设备强劲需求前景且ASML在行业内地位独特有护城河在内存和计算芯片市场终端市场正常化人工智能兴起和半导体制造回流努力的支撑下有望引领同行是唯一制造极紫外光刻机大规模生产最微小芯片技术的制造商 [2] ASML公司财报 - 公司净营收67.3亿美元（欧元换算）同比下降16%但环比增长9%新设备销售增长35%旧设备增长200%服务减少营收受其驱动 [3] - 公司毛利润增长19%净利润增长29%GAAP每股收益4.35美元同比增长29%高于预期但低于去年 [3] - 第二季度展望低于共识但全年指引重申净预订量因EUV销售增长55%且管理层预期人工智能推动持续改善 [4] 分析师观点 - 分析师对ASML评级为买入上涨空间31.5% [4] - 众多分析师重申看涨评级并提高目标股价最低目标有超10%上涨空间共识上涨暗示接近30%上涨 [5] - 分析师认为近期虽有逆风但人工智能仍将推动明年支出大幅增长花旗分析师关注明年1200亿美元半导体支出重点在ASML的EUV系统美银分析师指出半导体指数季节性表现不佳是股价下跌因素之一 [6] ASML股价走势 - 财报发布当周股价下跌超17%可能夏季仍承压已跌破150日指数移动平均线但下行潜力可能有限下一个关键支撑位接近880美元约低于近期股价2%可能很快达到 [7] - 880美元可能提供强劲支撑若市场在此确认支撑股价可能在夏末或初秋开始反弹因有环比改善恢复增长和人工智能相关半导体设备支出未知影响但投资者面临宏观经济包括美国选举不确定性带来的波动风险 [8] 与其他股票对比 - ASML虽有分析师给出买入评级但顶级分析师认为有五支股票是更好的买入选择 [9]