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ASML: Raising FV Estimate But Cyclical, Technical Risks Apparent
Seeking Alpha· 2024-08-26 21:31
文章核心观点 - 欧洲GRANOLAS股票在2023年和今年大部分时间表现强劲 ASML作为其中一员 虽基本面良好但技术面情况复杂 目前维持持有评级 待价格表现和会议情况明朗后或可升级为买入评级 [2][12] 公司表现 - 自第一季度首次给予持有评级以来 ASML股价基本持平 虽有两次盈利超预期且欧洲市场价格走势总体乐观 但股价未能取得太大进展 不过在7月创下了超过110美元的历史新高 [2] 行业地位 - 公司是光刻工具市场的领导者 受益于技术转型以及前沿逻辑和存储芯片产能的新增 目前市场份额接近90% 在下一代极紫外(EUV)光刻领域处于垄断地位 与台积电、英特尔和三星等客户保持着关键合作关系 [4] 财务情况 - 7月公布的第二季度财报表现稳健 运营每股收益为4.39美元 超出预期0.36美元 营收68亿美元也高于分析师预期 虽营收同比下降10% 但净销售额超过公司预测中点 毛利率达到51.5% 略高于预期 季度净订单达56亿欧元 预计第三季度净销售额在67亿至73亿欧元之间 毛利率在50%至51%之间 [4] - 预计今年每股收益将略有下降 2024年运营每股利润将强劲增长 到2026年 每股收益可能达到38美元 销售额将从2024年的310亿美元增长到410亿美元 此后可能保持中到高个位数的营收增长 [4] - 自由现金流收益率较低 低于1% 但高盛分析师预计到2025年底将达到4% [4] 估值分析 - 假设2025年运营每股收益为27美元 应用35倍的市盈率 股价应接近945美元 较之前分析有显著的内在价值提升 [5] - 与同行相比 公司估值较高 但增长轨迹良好 盈利能力趋势出色 [7] 技术分析 - 技术面情况不太理想 自第一季度中期以来股价基本持平 夏季涨至历史新高后受芯片行业抛售压力影响 不过在765至772美元区间获得支撑 只要股价高于该点 多头就有一定控制权 [10] - 长期200日移动平均线呈上升趋势 尽管股价较近期峰值下跌约10% 但相对强弱指数(RSI)动量振荡器显示出看跌的动量背离 不过公司填补了2月的缺口 并在8月初迎来大量买盘需求 [10] 风险因素 - 面临来自其他国际半导体材料和设备企业的竞争加剧风险 以及2025年经济增长放缓的可能性 [4] - EUV光刻技术延迟可能会影响利润 企业资本支出的周期性可能导致销售和盈利波动 公司在中国市场有业务 曾受相关因素影响 但美银认为潜在出口规则变化可能带来积极影响 [4] 未来展望 - 未来一个月公司团队将参加七场会议 已确认2024年第三季度财报将于10月16日盘前公布 年度投资者日定于11月14日举行 [8]
ASML (ASML) Stock Slides as Market Rises: Facts to Know Before You Trade
ZACKS· 2024-08-24 06:45
In the latest market close, ASML (ASML) reached $907.26, with a -0.05% movement compared to the previous day. This move lagged the S&P 500's daily gain of 1.15%. On the other hand, the Dow registered a gain of 1.14%, and the technology-centric Nasdaq increased by 1.47%.Heading into today, shares of the equipment supplier to semiconductor makers had gained 5.23% over the past month, outpacing the Computer and Technology sector's loss of 2.53% and the S&P 500's gain of 0.27% in that time.The investment commun ...
Best AI Stocks: Nvidia Stock vs. ASML Stock
The Motley Fool· 2024-08-22 23:53
分组1 - Parkev Tatevosian无文中提及股票持仓 [1] - 公司持有ASML和英伟达股票并推荐 [1] - Parkev Tatevosian是公司附属机构,推广服务或获补偿 [1]
Recent ASML Sell-Off Is an Excellent Opportunity to Benefit From AI Tailwinds
GuruFocus· 2024-08-22 21:00
文章核心观点 - ASML是半导体供应链中最关键的公司之一,其光刻设备对于生产人工智能应用所需的高性能芯片至关重要 [1] - ASML拥有大量与机器学习、人工智能和数据科学相关的专利,这表明其可能即将在这些领域取得突破性创新 [2] - ASML的业务增长强劲,过去10年年均增长超过18%,这表明其不是一个投机性资产,而是有实际业务扩张支撑 [4] - 尽管今年ASML的增长预计将趋于平缓,但预计未来几年其增长率将重新回到两位数,这主要得益于宏观经济环境的改善和中国贸易壁垒的解除 [5] 公司概况 - ASML是一家总部位于荷兰的公司,其技术受专利保护,拥有垄断性优势 [2] - 公司是先进光刻设备(包括深紫外和极紫外系统)的领先供应商,其技术对于生产人工智能应用所需的高性能芯片至关重要 [2] - 公司近期的专利申请活跃度显著增加,这表明其可能即将在人工智能、机器学习和数据科学领域取得突破性创新 [2] 财务和估值 - ASML过去10年的财务增长强劲,年均增长超过18%,其中7年实现两位数增长 [4] - 公司拥有48%的净资产收益率,显示其是一家高毛利和运营效率高的企业 [5] - 尽管今年增长预计趋于平缓,但预计未来几年其增长率将重新回到两位数,这主要得益于宏观经济环境的改善和中国贸易壁垒的解除 [5] - 目前公司股价处于合理估值区间,未来有25%的上涨空间 [5] 风险因素 - 公司超过半数收入来自台湾和中国,地缘政治局势的不确定性可能对其业务造成影响 [7] - 但考虑到半导体芯片在各类电子设备中的重要性,各国都不希望进一步扰乱供应链,因此这一风险可能已经被市场消化 [7]
Is Trending Stock ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) a Buy Now?
ZACKS· 2024-08-21 22:01
ASML (ASML) has recently been on Zacks.com's list of the most searched stocks. Therefore, you might want to consider some of the key factors that could influence the stock's performance in the near future.Over the past month, shares of this equipment supplier to semiconductor makers have returned -0.7%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.8% change. During this period, the Zacks Semiconductor Equipment - Wafer Fabrication industry, which ASML falls in, has gained 0.3%. The key question now is: What ...
Wall Street Bulls Look Optimistic About ASML (ASML): Should You Buy?
ZACKS· 2024-08-20 22:31
The recommendations of Wall Street analysts are often relied on by investors when deciding whether to buy, sell, or hold a stock. Media reports about these brokerage-firm-employed (or sell-side) analysts changing their ratings often affect a stock's price. Do they really matter, though?Before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage, let's see what these Wall Street heavyweights think about ASML (ASML) .ASML currently has an average brokerage recommendati ...
Stock-Split Watch: Is ASML Next?
The Motley Fool· 2024-08-15 23:11
文章核心观点 - 芯片制造设备供应商ASML可能会很快拆分股票,但也有迹象表明可能需要更长时间 [1][2] - 股票拆分是一个简单的会计操作,不会改变公司的总价值,也不会为现有股东增加价值 [3][4] - 股票拆分可以使股票更加便宜,从而更容易被更广泛的潜在投资者购买 [4] - ASML过去曾多次进行股票拆分,最近一次是在2000年 [7] - 公司当前的业务前景支持即将进行股票拆分 [8][9][10] - 但公司的现金管理策略却不太积极,可能会推迟股票拆分 [11][12][13][14] 行业分析 - 受到经济不确定性和芯片库存过剩的影响,ASML的客户暂时放缓了产能扩张 [8] - 但随着库存问题的改善和人工智能市场的持续推动,ASML的高端设备需求将上升 [9][10] - 公司面临地缘政治风险,因为其约一半收入来自中国市场,受到贸易限制的影响 [12] 公司分析 - ASML的股价在过去5年里已经超过4倍,但2022年出现了大幅下跌 [5][6] - 公司的估值指标非常高,可能需要先提升财务基础再进行股票拆分 [13][14] - 尽管短期内面临一些挑战,但ASML作为半导体和人工智能市场的重要参与者,长期前景仍然看好 [16]
ASML Stock Is Down 20%. Here's Why You Should Buy ASML Holdings Now.
Investor Place· 2024-08-13 19:00
 Netherlands-based ASML Holdings (NASDAQ:ASML) was one of the best-performing stocks on the Nasdaq 100 exchange in the first quarter of 2024. As artificial intelligence mania gripped the market and chip companies invested billions into the technology, ASML soared, rising 33% over the first three months of the year.That’s because the semiconductor equipment manufacturer has a virtual monopoly on the manufacturing of the critical equipment chipmakers need to make AI chips. Its extreme ultraviolet lithography ...
Stock-Split Watch: 2 AI Stocks That Look Ready to Split
The Motley Fool· 2024-08-10 20:33
ASML and Meta Platforms could split their high-flying shares soon.Several of the market's hottest artificial intelligence (AI) companies -- including Nvidia, Broadcom, and Super Micro Computer -- all split their stocks or announced their plans to do so over the past year. Those events didn't actually make their high-flying stocks fundamentally cheaper, since they simply split their existing shares into smaller slices, but they still attracted a lot of attention from retail investors who wanted to buy entire ...
Why ASML Holdings Fell 11.8% in July
The Motley Fool· 2024-08-09 02:38
The EUV lithography maker reported solid earnings, but general fears over the extended AI trade brought it down.Shares of key semiconductor equipment supplier ASML Holdings (ASML 4.12%) fell 11.8% in July, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.ASML makes extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) machines crucial to making cutting-edge semiconductors for artificial intelligence (AI) applications. So expectations were high heading into the month, with ASML up about 40% on the year heading into Jul ...