军队领导层变动 - 瑞士任命贝内迪克特·鲁斯少将为新任武装部队负责人 于2025年1月1日就职 [1] - 此次任命标志着回归更传统的军事领导路线 鲁斯自1997年起即为职业军官 而前任托马斯·苏斯利于2015年才成为全职军官并于2019年意外获提名 [2] 国防采购与预算 - 关键采购项目出现延误和成本超支 例如从洛克希德·马丁公司订购36架F-35A战斗机的成本将比原预期高出13亿瑞士法郎（16亿美元） [3] - 瑞士目前国防开支仅占GDP的0.7% 计划到2030年提高至1% 该国并非北约成员国 [4] 国防工业与采购环境 - 基于中立国地位的出口限制使瑞士更难获得所需武器系统 例如美国告知其新的爱国者地面防空系统将延迟交付 原因是优先支持乌克兰 [5] - 国防工业订单已满 瑞士需要适应其需求在未来可能不会成为优先事项的情况 [5] 其他关键人事任命 - 政府任命现任瑞士驻阿尔及利亚大使塞尔日·巴沃为联邦情报局新任负责人 [5]

智通财经APP获悉，瑞银集团已将金价预测上调至2025年底达到每盎司3800美元，2026年中达到3900美 元，理由是美国劳动力数据疲软背景下预计美联储将重新降息。 这家投资银行还预期美元走弱及持续的地缘政治不确定性将推动投资者需求增长，市场参与者正将黄金 作为对冲工具。 瑞银分析师表示："从投资组合的角度来看，多元化配置和持有相关对冲资产至关重要。"他们补充称， 美国总统特朗普希望降低政策利率也提升了黄金的吸引力。 "我们对黄金保持看好观点，并在全球资产配置中维持黄金多头头寸。此外，我们的分析表明，配置中 个位数百分比的黄金是最优选择。" 黄金已重拾上涨势头，年内迄今涨幅达38%，当前价格略低于本月早些时候创下的每盎司3674美元的历 史高点。截至发稿时，金价上涨0.3%，报每盎司3644.43美元。 ...

金价预测上调 - 高盛将2029年起长期金价预测从2850美元/盎司上调至3300美元/盎司 [1] - 高盛认为金价存在上行至4500-5000美元/盎司的风险 [1] - 瑞银将2025年底金价预测上调300美元至3800美元/盎司 [4] - 瑞银将2026年中期金价预测上调200美元至3900美元/盎司 [4] 黄金股表现 - 高盛认为黄金股将在2025年继续跑赢大宗商品本身 [3] - 澳大利亚黄金行业市值从700亿澳元增至1350亿澳元 [3] - 全球黄金巨头市值从1350亿美元扩大到2700亿美元 [3] - 利润率扩张是黄金股表现优异的关键驱动力 [3] 机构观点与配置 - 高盛全球大宗商品团队仍看好黄金 [1] - 瑞银对黄金保持"有吸引力"看法并在全球资产配置中继续做多 [4] - 瑞银认为中等个位数的百分比配置对黄金是最佳的 [4] - 纽蒙特公司被高盛评为中性但具有积极产量/自由现金流/资本管理前景 [2] 支撑因素分析 - 预期美联储宽松政策及美元疲软支撑金价 [4] - 地缘政治风险增加黄金吸引力 [4] - 央行黄金购买量预计保持在900-950吨强劲水平 [4] - 黄金ETF持有量预计2025年底超过3900吨接近历史纪录 [4] 市场表现数据 - 现货黄金创下3674.85美元/盎司历史新高 [4] - 黄金价格年初至今上涨超过39% [4] - 周五欧盘时段黄金价格在3648-3649美元区间高位徘徊 [5]

合作项目概述 - Chainlink Labs、瑞银资产管理及DigiFT三方合作，旨在构建一个自动化框架以革新投资基金的创建和管理方式 [1] - 该项目在香港数码港计划下进行，并于9月11日宣布 [1] - 合作目标是将基金运营中的人工流程替换为基于区块链的自动化流程 [3] 技术框架与参与方角色 - 瑞银将贡献其专有的UBS Tokenize平台 [4] - Chainlink Labs将提供其数字转移代理工具，用于在链上验证和记录交易 [4] - DigiFT作为在新加坡和香港持牌的机构，将提供受监管的分销渠道 [4] - 该系统组件旨在让投资者通过智能合约下订单和赎回，并自动触发对瑞银代币化基金的所需操作 [4] 项目意义与行业影响 - 该项目被视为行业里程碑，展示了基金发行和生命周期管理如何在香港金融体系内以合规透明的方式实现自动化 [5] - 该框架预示了区块链技术完全嵌入运营后资本市场的未来形态 [5] - 若成功，此次合作可能加速代币化金融产品从试点项目向主流投资产品的转变进程 [6] 项目背景与目标 - 项目在香港数码港区块链与数字资产试点资助计划下进行，该计划是政府支持的项目，旨在鼓励香港的Web3实验 [2] - 该系统预期通过将智能合约嵌入从发行到赎回的每个阶段，来减少错误、简化转账并降低全球132万亿美元资产管理行业的成本 [3]

[角色] 你是一名拥有10年投资银行从业经验的资深研究分析师，专门负责上市公司、行业研究。你擅长解读公司财报、行业动态、宏观市场，发现潜在的投资机会和风险。 [任务] 你需要仔细研读一份上市公司或者行业研究的电话会议记录，请阅读全文，一步一步思考，总结全文列出关键要点，不要错过任何信息，包括： * 纪要涉及的行业或者公司 * 纪要提到的核心观点和论据 * 其他重要但是可能被忽略的内容 如果没有相关内容，请跳过这一部分，进行其他的部分。 总结时要全面、详细、尽可能覆盖全部的内容、不遗漏重点,并根据上述方面对内容进行分组。 要引用原文数字数据和百分比变化,注意单位换算(billion=十亿,million=百万,thousand=千)。 [注意事项] 1) 使用中文,不要出现句号 2) 采用markdown格式 3) 不使用第一人称,以"公司"、"行业"代替 4) 只输出关于公司和行业的内容 5) 在每一个关键点后用[序号]形式引用原文档id 6) 一个[序号]只应该包含一个数字，不能包含多个，如果多个就用[序号][序号]分开写，不要写成 [序号-序号] 7) 每个关键要点后边的 [序号] 不要超过 3 个 Content: --------- <doc id='1'>ab 7 September 2025</doc> <doc id='2'>First Read Global Oil Fundamentals OPEC+ to push further OPEC+ partners to keep raising production in October The eight OPEC+ members carrying out the second tranche of voluntary cuts of 1.65Mb/ d announced on Sunday that they will raise oil production by 137kb/d in October (link). This will continue the production increases after the group fully unwinds the previous 2.2Mb/d voluntary cuts by the end of September, in only six months. The October run rate implies a return of 1.65Mb/d over one year but the group emphasised that any further adjustment remains contingent on evolving market conditions. The oil price had already dropped last week on reports that the group would continue raising production (link), limiting the immediate impact, but we would still expect the decision to weigh on prices. The next meeting is scheduled for 5 October.</doc> <doc id='3'>Actual production increase likely to be even lower than for the first tranche Even more than for the first tranche of production cuts, we expect the actual production increase from this second tranche to fall short of the headline number. We estimate that only around 40% of the 1.65Mb/d is likely to materialise, compared to a ~60% increase for the previous 2.2Mb/d. We expect the bulk of this increase to be driven by Saudi Arabia (500kb/d) and the UAE (144kb/d). This is due to a combination of countries already producing above target and in some cases limited ability to increase production further. See Figure 2 for full breakdown of the 1.65Mb/d.</doc> <doc id='4'>Still, even larger surplus looms, higher risk of <$60/bbl This weekend's announcement reinforces our caution on oil prices near-term (UBSe $62/ bbl Brent in 4Q25/1Q26). We were already projecting much larger surpluses in the oil market over the next few months in our last monthly update: 1.2Mb/d in 4Q25 and 2.4Mb/d in 1Q26, before the October increase. If OPEC+ partners continue at this pace over the next few months, the surplus would rise to ~2.7Mb/d. This has the potential to bring prices below our base case and push Brent sub-$60/bbl in our view. The decision could prove to be supportive in the longer term as it could show that real spare capacity within the group is more limited now and reduce non-OPEC supply growth.</doc> <doc id='5'>Equities Global Oil Companies, Major Henri Patricot, CFA Analyst henri.patricot@ubs.com +33-14-888 3033 Nayoung Kim Analyst nayoung.kim@ubs.com +44-20-7568 4010 Joshua Stone Analyst joshua.stone@ubs.com +44-20-7901 5588 Josh Silverstein Analyst josh.silverstein@ubs.com +1-212-713 3513 Tom Allen Analyst tom.allen@ubs.com +61-3-9242 6237 Tasso Vasconcellos Analyst tasso.vasconcellos@ubs.com +55-11-2767 6683 This report has been prepared by UBS Europe SE. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on page 5. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.</doc> <doc id='6'>-500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Apr-25 Jul-25 Oct-25 Jan-26 Apr-26 Jul-26 Oct-26 Russia Oman Kazakhstan UAE Saudi Arabia Kuwait Iraq Algeria Cumulative increase UBSe cumulative increase Cumulative increase without compensation UBSe vs. March target level</doc> <doc id='7'>Figure 1: Planned gradual return of the voluntary cuts (cumulative increase, kb/d)</doc> <doc id='8'>Source: OPEC, UBS. Note: includes the 300kb/d UAE quota increase and the announced October 2025 increase, but no increase beyond October 2025.</doc> <doc id='9'>| Figure 2: Split of the October increase and second tranche of voluntary cuts | | --- | | kb/d | October increase | Share of the 1.65Mb/d cuts | | --- | --- | --- | | Saudi Arabia | 42 | 500 | | UAE | 12 | 144 | | Russia | 42 | 500 | | Iraq | 17 | 211 | | Kuwait | 11 | 128 | | Kazakhstan | 6 | 78 | | Algeria | 4 | 48 | | Oman | 3 | 40 | | | 137 | 1649 | Source: OPEC.</doc> <doc id='10'>Figure 3: Quarterly global oil supply and demand balance (Mb/d)</doc> <doc id='11'>98 100 102 104 106 108 110 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 2Q22 4Q22 2Q23 4Q23 2Q24 4Q24 2Q25 4Q25E 2Q26E 4Q26E Oil demand/supply balance (Mb/d) Stock changes (Mb/d) Implied over/ (under) supply Demand Supply</doc> <doc id='12'>Source: IEA, UBSe.</doc> <doc id='13'>-200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 Jan-24 Apr-24 Jul-24 Oct-24 Jan-25 Apr-25 Jul-25 Iraq Kazakhstan Russia</doc> <doc id='14'>Figure 4: Production gap to targets for the 3 OPEC+ members due to implement compensation plans, based on OPEC secondary sources (kb/d) Source: OPEC, UBS.</doc> <doc id='15'>Valuation Method and Risk Statement In history, oil prices have proved consistently unpredictable because so many political, geological, and economic trends and events affect the supply of and demand for oil. Oil prices are extremely volatile in the short, medium and long term, as they are frequently affected by inherently unpredictable events, including natural disasters.</doc> <doc id='16'>Required Disclosures This document has been prepared by UBS Europe SE, an affiliate of UBS AG. UBS AG, its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates, including former Credit Suisse AG and its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as "UBS".</doc> <doc id='17'>For information on the ways in which UBS manages conflicts and maintains independence of its UBS Global Research product; historical performance information; certain additional disclosures concerning UBS Global Research recommendations; and terms and conditions for certain third party data used in research report, please visit https://www.ubs.com/disclosures. 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UBS has designated certain UBS Global Research department members as Derivatives Research Analysts where those department members publish research principally on the analysis of the price or market for a derivative, and provide information reasonably sufficient upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction. Where Derivatives Research Analysts co-author research reports with Equity Research Analysts or Economists, the Derivatives Research Analyst is responsible for the derivatives investment views, forecasts, and/or recommendations. Quantitative Research Review: UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For the latest responses, please see the Quantitative Research Review Addendum at the back of this report, where applicable. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS Global Research reports; and (ii) where no applicable research report was published that month, the Quantitative Research Review which can be found at https:// neo.ubs.com/quantitative, or contact your UBS sales representative for access to the report or the Quantitative Research Team on ubs- quant-answers@ubs.com. A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your UBS sales representative for details and pricing or the Quantitative Research team on the email above.</doc> <doc id='18'>Analyst Certification: Each research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to each security or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about those securities or issuers and were prepared in an independent manner, including with respect to UBS, and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by that research analyst in the research report.</doc> <doc id='19'>| 12-Month Rating | Definition | Coverage1 | IB Services2 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Buy | FSR is > 6% above the MRA. | 52% | | 22% | | Neutral | FSR is between -6% and 6% of the MRA. | 41% | | 20% | | Sell | FSR is > 6% below the MRA. | 8% | | 22% | | Short-Term Rating | Definition | Coverage3 | IB Services4 | | | Buy | Stock price expected to rise within three months from the time the rating was assigned because of a specific catalyst or event. | <1% | | <1% | | Sell | Stock price expected to fall within three months from the time the rating was assigned because of a specific catalyst or event. | <1% | | <1% |</doc> <doc id='20'>UBS Global Research: Global Equity Rating Definitions</doc> <doc id='21'>Source: UBS. Rating allocations are as of 30 June 2025. 1:Percentage of companies under coverage globally within the 12-month rating category. 2:Percentage of companies within the 12-month rating category for which investment banking (IB) services were provided within the past 12 months. 3:Percentage of companies under coverage globally within the Short-Term rating category.</doc> <doc id='22'>4:Percentage of companies within the Short-Term rating category for which investment banking (IB) services were provided within the past 12 months.</doc> <doc id='23'>KEY DEFINITIONS:Forecast Stock Return (FSR) is defined as expected percentage price appreciation plus gross dividend yield over the next 12 months. In some cases, this yield may be based on accrued dividends. Market Return Assumption (MRA) is defined as the one-year local market interest rate plus 5% (a proxy for, and not a forecast of, the equity risk premium). 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As a result, stocks deemed to be very high or low risk may be subject to higher or lower bands as they relate to the rating. When such exceptions apply, they will be identified in the Company Disclosures table in the relevant research piece.</doc> <doc id='25'>Research analysts contributing to this report who are employed by any non-US affiliate of UBS Securities LLC are not registered/ qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Such analysts may not be associated persons of UBS Securities LLC and therefore are not subject to the FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account. 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核心观点 - 瑞银CIO报告筛选出5大最具吸引力长期投资主题 包括数字消费者 多元化与平等 赋能技术 金融科技和发掘下一个前沿市场 其中发掘下一个前沿市场首次进入前五 金融科技从第五名提升[5][6] - 报告建议短期减少对基因疗法和医疗科技敞口 因缺乏积极催化剂 但智能出行主题因估值与动量改善可重新关注[6][15][16] - 长期投资底层逻辑基于三大不可逆趋势：人口增长（2050年达97亿） 城市化（2050年占比68%）和老龄化（2050年每6人中有1人≥65岁）[19] 数字消费者主题 - 投资逻辑：Z世代等数字原住民更重体验共享而非实物拥有 数字化增加消费决策触点 AI颠覆传统领域 元宇宙和社交媒体构成核心机会[8] - 入场理由：排名第一 质量优势包括企业资产负债表稳健和投入资本回报率高 科技板块反弹带动动量提升 但估值相对较高[8] 多元化与平等主题 - 投资逻辑：全球监管推动企业披露多元化数据 提升多元化可缩小财富鸿沟并拉动GDP增长 股东关注度飙升使多元化企业长期跑赢市场[9][10] - 入场理由：估值合理且质量得分高 跨行业分散兼具防御 价值和成长属性 需警惕美国部分州法律挑战风险[10] 赋能技术主题 - 投资逻辑：生成式AI加速技术融合 重点看好AI AR/VR 大数据 5G和突破性技术 这些技术重构多个行业 软硬件占比高推动低双位数盈利增长[11] - 入场理由：动量突出且估值有吸引力 高度聚焦IT板块 2030年AI市场规模达2.6万亿美元 2024-2030年CAGR为41%[11] 金融科技主题 - 投资逻辑：城市化 年轻群体需求和政策支持推动行业收入从2024年3100亿美元增至2030年5800亿美元 关注头部支付企业 平台型公司及新兴技术颠覆者[12] - 入场理由：动量持续改善 契合看好美国金融板块观点 估值暴跌后业务重构为盈利增长 AI进步和低利率周期优化行业环境[12] 发掘下一个前沿市场主题 - 投资逻辑：新兴及前沿经济体是全球GDP增长核心动力 2024年十大发展中经济体人口占比超50% 部分市场能将经济增长转化为企业盈利增长[13] - 入场理由：美国财政赤字扩大和美元走弱提升吸引力 投资者分散美国资产敞口 利率下降利好新兴市场股票 全球经济韧性提供支撑[13] 短期谨慎主题 - 基因疗法：生物科技行业面临资本约束 融资泡沫破裂后现金流承压 投资者情绪低迷 临床研发与商业化受阻[15] - 医疗科技：估值基于数字颠覆预期而非实际商业模式 需证明盈利与规模化能力 用户增长难转化收益 医保报销和监管障碍导致落地慢[15] - 智能出行：脱离谨慎名单 因估值与动量改善 汽车脱碳为长期趋势 短期利好包括IAA车展展示电动化和自动驾驶进展 行业估值过低[16] 长期趋势 - 人口增长：全球人口从2024年81亿增至2050年97亿 2100年或超100亿 增长主要来自中低收入国家[19] - 城市化：全球城市人口占比从1950年30%升至2018年55% 2050年达68% 90%增长来自亚洲和非洲[19] - 老龄化：2024年每10人中有1人≥65岁 2050年升至每6人1人 发达国家更严重达每4人1人[19] 投资建议 - 分散布局多主题以降低回撤风险[26] - 坚持长期投资避免频繁交易 核心驱动如AI和新兴市场增长为长期趋势[26] - 警惕投资风险 咨询专业顾问[26]

中国期货市场开放进程 - 2025年以来监管层连续三次推出开放措施 合格境外投资者可参与的期货期权品种数量已扩容至104个 开放力度前所未有 [1][8] - 开放品种覆盖九成市场流动性 其中商品期货47个 众多仅在中国上市的大宗商品可被QFII交易 [9] - 期货市场境外客户较2022年同期增长63% 目前已有全球39个国家或地区交易者参与 [11] 瑞银期货战略定位与业务发展 - 作为中国最早一批外资控股期货公司 始终站在开放进程第一线 积极推动境外投资者参与中国市场 [2] - 2016年实现瑞银全资控股 2025年4月瑞银集团实现对瑞银证券全资控股 成为中国首家外商独资全牌照证券公司 [3] - 对标全球标准落地先进风险管理架构 提供定制化服务 包括前置风险提示、套保期现匹配、持仓限额管理等 [6] 业务创新与里程碑事件 - 2022年完成QFII/RQFII首单国内商品期货交易 成为首家支持QFII参与境内商品期货市场的期货公司 [6] - 2023年以来提供连续交易服务、境外中介业务、国债质押保证金业务等新业务 [6] - 2024年起在集团大中华区研讨会设立期货专题 面向数千名境外投资者系统介绍中国市场 [6] 市场机遇与投资者反应 - 2025年6月新增16个QFII可参与商品期货期权品种 10月9日起允许QFII参与场内ETF期权交易(涉及9个品种) [8] - 9月10日起新增开放石油沥青期货合约及燃料油、石油沥青、纸浆期权合约 [8] - 境外投资者在政策落地后第一时间展开交易 品种扩展极大激发投资兴趣 广泛欢迎资产配置、投资和风险对冲需求 [9] 国际化发展前景 - 陆家嘴论坛提出将优化QFII制度、拓展品种范围、推动人民币外汇期货和LNG期货期权等新品种上市 [9] - 未来3-5年合作与开放是主要趋势 中国期货市场将持续深化开放 实现与全球资本市场更高水平融合 [10] - 公司将聚焦高质量引入境外客户 发挥集团一体化优势 加强境内外协同 帮助客户理解中国市场制度与规则 [10]

欧洲央行利率决议预期 - 所有机构一致预期欧洲央行将维持利率不变 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11] 利率前景分歧 - 部分机构认为降息周期已结束 利率将维持稳定直至明年年底 [6][7] - 法兴银行预计下次降息在明年第一季度 [4] - 法国外贸银行保留12月降息25个基点可能性 前提是劳动力市场严重恶化 [9] - 裕信银行认为未来三至六个月存在最后降息25个基点的不确定性 [5] - 荷兰国际银行指出市场低估了今年再次降息的可能性 [11] 政策立场倾向 - 欧洲央行可能对进一步降息保持谨慎态度 避免预先承诺未来行动 [2][3] - 若央行立场反驳市场定价的降息预期 将支撑欧元走强 [1] - 拉加德可能提及美欧贸易协议但仍强调政策灵活性 [3] 经济预测与外部因素 - 欧洲央行工作人员对经济前景预测仅会进行小幅调整 [2] - 欧盟大规模财政刺激措施将从明年初显现经济支撑效果 [6] - 超预期经济增长、贸易协议及德国财政措施支持利率维持不变 [7] - 央行需应对法国政治动荡影响 但拉加德可能保持缄默 [10] 通胀与政策转折信号 - 若拉加德正式宣布战胜通胀并发出结束宽松周期信号 可能推动欧元上涨 [8] - 法兴银行指出明年第一季度降息时通胀可能暂时走弱 [4] - 关税负面影响将愈发明显 [4] 存款利率预期 - 裕信银行预计存款利率在明年全年维持在2%不变 [5]

来自欧洲金融巨头瑞银集团(UBS Group AG)的首席执行官塞尔吉奥·埃尔莫蒂周四接受采访时表示，美 国总统特朗普发起的面向全球关税政策对美国经济前景以及通胀路径的影响仍不清晰，这使得预测美联 储政策前景更加困难。埃尔莫蒂还表示，关税的真正问题将体现在庞大的美国消费者身上，目前尚不清 楚美国关税是否带来持续性的长期通胀。 这位征战金融市场多年的老兵对于美国通胀与美联储降息路径的展望，与市场普遍预期相比可谓谨慎得 多，当前交易员们集体押注美联储9月开启新一轮降息，并且认为关税对于美国通胀的影响将是短暂 的，因此押注在年底之前美联储将连续三次降息来提振大幅放缓的美国经济以及陷入萎靡的劳动力市 场。 尽管美联储将在9月16-17日会议上降息的预期已被市场100%定价，但对于美联储9月降息25基点还是更 激进的50基点，以及在此之后的降息路径，投资者们仍然对美联储货币政策宽松节奏的预测在近日不断 发生变化。 "关税的真正问题将体现在消费者身上，"65岁的埃尔莫蒂表示。"在美国，我们需要确切看到关税是否 带来长期通胀方面的持续负面影响。我认为这尚不明确。" 埃尔莫蒂的谨慎立场与高盛CEO所罗门"不必迅速降息"的谨慎 ...

（原标题：?关税迷雾压顶 瑞银CEO对降息持谨慎立场：通胀传导尚不明 美联储政策路径难判） 智通财经APP获悉，来自欧洲金融巨头瑞银集团(UBS Group AG)的首席执行官塞尔吉奥·埃尔莫蒂周四 接受采访时表示，美国总统特朗普发起的面向全球关税政策对美国经济前景以及通胀路径的影响仍不清 晰，这使得预测美联储政策前景更加困难。埃尔莫蒂还表示，关税的真正问题将体现在庞大的美国消费 者身上，目前尚不清楚美国关税是否带来持续性的长期通胀。 这位征战金融市场多年的老兵对于美国通胀与美联储降息路径的展望，与市场普遍预期相比可谓谨慎得 多，当前交易员们集体押注美联储9月开启新一轮降息，并且认为关税对于美国通胀的影响将是短暂 的，因此押注在年底之前美联储将连续三次降息来提振大幅放缓的美国经济以及陷入萎靡的劳动力市 场。 "在美国市场，我们仍然认为经济增长会持续存在，但是增速可能大幅放缓。不过，关于通胀的问题及 其如何体现在央行货币政策上仍未有定论，"埃尔莫蒂周四在香港接受媒体采访时说道。 尽管美联储将在9月16-17日会议上降息的预期已被市场100%定价，但对于美联储9月降息25基点还是更 激进的50基点，以及在此之后的 ...