**分众传媒电话会议纪要关键要点** **涉及的行业与公司** * 公司为分众传媒 专注于公寓楼和写字楼广告投放平台[4] * 涉及行业包括互联网 化妆品 食品 米面粮油 电器 草本饮料 电解质水 酒类 乳制品 汽车 美容护肤 平台型商家 生活服务 品牌优惠券 即时零售等[3][10][11] **核心观点与论据** * **2025年上半年广告需求整体平稳 无显著复苏迹象**[3] * 互联网行业显示一定增长 尤其在化妆品领域表现突出[3] * 食品类有小幅增长 特别是米面粮油类产品如金龙鱼和鲁花[3] * 电器行业如海信 格力受益于国家以旧换新政策 有不错表现[3] * 草本饮料如元气养生水和露露 以及电解质水领域显示增长潜力[3] * 酒类 乳制品和汽车行业面临一定压力[3] * **即时零售是改变消费者购买习惯的重要趋势 非短暂现象**[4] * 自七八月份开始加大投入 促进外卖服务并提升即时购买欲望[4] * 对国民经济有积极影响 类似当年的电商革命[4] * 各大互联网公司都在不遗余力投入[4] * 预计投放力度将在明年春节前达到第一个高潮[4] * **与天猫和抖音数据银行合作提升广告效果评估能力**[5] * 为客户提供可分析 可评估的数据支持 清晰展示广告后链路效果[5] * 能追踪用户看广告后的加购 关注 收藏及直播间购买行为变化[5] * 此合作帮助公司在化妆品领域取得显著增长 并确立线上线下共振新格局[5] * 在食品 电器及草本饮料等多个领域有成功案例[5] * **支付宝"碰一碰"项目运营数据亮眼 用户年轻化**[8] * 日活跃用户数（DU）突破50万 每日触发次数超100万次[8] * 互动人群年轻化 25-39岁人群占比49.4% 24岁以下人群占比28.5%[8] * 性别比例相对均衡 男性占58.6% 女性占41.2%[8] * **"碰一碰"项目带来多方面优势**[9][10] * 通过NFC技术无需实体卡 提升用户体验[9] * 优惠券直接存支付宝卡包 线上线下方便使用[9] * 降低短信发送成本 提高营销效率[10] * 可针对不同用户发放个性化优惠券 实现精准营销[10] * 使广告创意测试更加便捷 通过实时数据反馈优化策略[10] * **主要广告主类型及转化效果**[10][11] * 广告主类型集中在美容护肤 平台型商家 生活服务类及品牌优惠券[10] * 美容护肤行业规模化派样进店转化率20%-30% 全链路派样成功率5%-8%[10] * 某美妆品牌通过渠道实现4%的拉新效果 显著优于原有渠道[10] * 平台型商家如某二手交易平台进店转化率超20%[11] * 某大型电商品牌进店转化率15%-20% 客单价200元以上 20%用户通过"碰一下"独占场景触发购买[11] * 生活服务类如某健康体检企业实现1.8%以上实际进店转化率 留资成本45-80元[10] * 品牌优惠券日均发券量超100万张 当日及时转化率0.5%-10%[10] * **消费大类广告主上半年下滑 但细分赛道有潜力**[11] * 美容护肤行业用户对规模化派样反应积极 全链路派样成功率5%-8% 94%参与者为新客[11] * 平台型商家推广效果明显 进店转化率高且客单价显著提升[11] * 即时零售领域（如啤酒）与互动逻辑高度契合[11] * 生活服务领域（如打车服务）展现出良好交互效果[11] * **AI技术大幅降低广告制作成本并提升效果**[18][19] * 广告制作成本从10万-50万元降至2000-3000元[18] * 提升线上短视频时长及精准度 优化线下电梯广告效果 提高转化率[18] * 90%的内外部创意片制作由AI机器全流程覆盖[19] * TVC广告制作时间从一到两个月缩短至三天[19] * 许多国内外头部品牌已使用并信任其AI制作广告[19] * 智能广告投放提案系统正在开发中[19] * 超80%中小合作伙伴使用AI能力生成广告 生成素材下载量同比增长275%[19] * **收购新潮传媒及提升点位价值规划**[13] * 分众偏向大中型客户 新潮偏向中小型客户[13] * 计划利用分众大客户资源实现互补性覆盖[13] * 在三四线城市整合双方屏幕资源 形成更强媒体覆盖力（如总数达3000-5000个屏幕）[13] * 收购后打通京东 阿里 天猫和抖音的数据链路 提高广告刊挂率[13] * 计划2026年将"碰一下"技术应用到新潮上[13] * **海外市场布局进展与规划**[15][16] * 目前已覆盖11个国家和地区 拥有接近18万个点位 以视频类媒体为主[15] * 去年增加中东市场布局（迪拜 阿布扎比） 今年设立澳大利亚公司[15] * 韩国和新加坡点位数最多 韩国市场已扭亏为盈 新加坡保持盈利[15] * 越南 泰国 马来西亚及中国香港点位数基本达1.5万 今年预计超2万[15] * 其他地区仍在投入期处于亏损 海外业务在集团内部收入占比不高[15] * 未来将通过文化出海 区域扩张（重点关注新兴市场） 加强合作伙伴关系拓展[15] * 有信心复制国内模式 但需达到有效规模并本地化[16] * 下半年计划拓展巴西 墨西哥和加拿大[16] **其他重要内容** * **"碰一碰"项目安装进展与未来目标**[7] * 不带电设备（"碰一下线圈"）安装量28.7万个[7] * 带电设备安装量20.1万个[7] * 2025年9月至12月每月计划新增20万个点位 优先商务楼内电子屏[7] * 目标2025年底总安装量达105万个 2026年实现全覆盖[7] * **"碰一碰"项目推广曾面临的挑战**[6] * 早期类似项目（如2009年Q卡）因实体卡易丢失且短信成本高未成功[6] * NFC技术简化用户体验[6] * 客户提供的优惠券种类和数量有限曾限制用户参与度[6] * **"碰一碰"项目对未来定价及收入的影响**[17] * 分钟广告继续以品牌CPM定价 同时提供后链路服务[17] * 项目目前尚未收费 十一节后可能陆续形成收费体系[17] * 总体保持较大红利 以低于其他平台获客成本吸引客户[17] * 交互式广告创意（如碰后画面变化）将增强用户体验[17] * **公司股东回报计划**[20] * 过去三年平均分红率超过100%[20] * 今年中期报告每10股派1元现金 总金额14.4亿元[20] * 未来将继续保持稳定分红比例和频次[20] * **利用AI提升大客户服务能力**[21][22] * 通过AI技术将顶尖员工经验转化为普遍适用方法论[21] * 使更多员工具备80分以上水平 更好为大型客户提供增值服务[21] * 确保团队在未来人员变动时也能保持稳定服务输出能力[22] * **未来点位租金发展趋势**[23] * 今年上半年整体租金略有下降[23] * 视频类媒体点位数量增加 平面框架类点位数量减少[23] * 三种产品线的单点租金均有小幅下降 趋势预计持续[23] * 公司将继续优化相对低效点位并控制单点成本[23] * **人才培养与团队建设规划**[24] * 每年有3到5个国家需要管理层输出 新潮团队弥补人员紧缺[24] * 销售系统向专业化方向发展 形成三角形团队结构[24] * 加大高端人才招聘力度 特别是来自咨询公司的行业专家[24] * 通过员工持股等激励机制鼓励员工到海外拓展[24] * 在国内注重年轻化 国际化人才培养[24]

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) Update / Briefing August 30, 2025 01:00 PM ET Company ParticipantsPushkal Garg - Executive VP, Chief Research & Development OfficerBryan Williams - Chair - Medicine & ProfessorNeha Pagidipati - Associate Professor of MedicineSimon Fox - VP - Zilebesiran Program LeadManu Chakravarthy - Senior VP, Global Head - Cardiovascular, Renal & Metabolism Product DevelopmentEllie Merle - Executive Director - Biotech Equity ResearchPushkal GargHello, everybody, and thank you for joining us ...

公司信息 * 公司为Mount Logan Capital Inc 股票代码为PYCF F[1] * 会议为2025年8月29日重新召开的股东特别会议 此前于2025年8月22日休会[1] * 会议采用完全虚拟的在线形式进行[1] 会议议程与投票结果 * 会议议程包括审议并批准三项决议 分别为安排决议 合并决议和2025年综合激励计划决议[9][11][14] * 投票通过电子投票进行 注册股东和正式委托的代理持有人可投票 以访客身份登录则只能观察不能投票[3][16][18] * 会议开始前 scrutineers（监票人）的报告显示 基于会前收到的代理投票 每一项决议均已获得所需数量的股份投票赞成[4][19] * 因此会议主席宣布每一项动议均已通过 无需等待会议期间生成新的临时投票报告[4][5][19] * 安排决议获得批准 该决议涉及根据《安大略省商业公司法》第182条的安排计划以及公司将注册地从安大略省变更为美国特拉华州 并转换为按《特拉华州有限责任公司法案》运营的有限责任公司[9][19] * 合并决议获得批准 该决议涉及授权 批准和采纳经两次修订的合并协议 日期分别为2025年1月16日 2025年7月6日（第一次修订）和2025年8月17日（第二次修订）[11][19] * 根据合并协议 在完成注册地变更后 MLC Merger Sub将与Mount Logan合并 Mount Logan为存续公司[11][19] * 合并决议的通过需满足两个条件 一是由代表超过50%已发行流通普通股的持有人批准 二是由出席现场或由代理代表出席且有权投票的股东所投票数的至少50%批准（多数决） 且需排除特定关联股东所持股份的投票[12] * 需排除投票的关联股东包括公司首席执行官Edward Goldthorpe和董事Pery DeLise所持有的股份[12][13] * 2025年综合激励计划决议获得批准 该决议的通过需要出席现场或由代理代表出席且有权投票的股东所投票数的至少多数（50%）批准[14][15][19] * 所有决议的完整投票结果报告将在会议结束后发布在SEDAR上并通过新闻稿公布[5][19][20] 会议程序与文件 * 会议材料包括2025年7月11日发布并于2025年8月19日补充的联合委托声明书/招股说明书（管理信息通函）[6] * 会议通知 初始联合委托声明书/招股说明书以及代理表格已于2025年7月22日左右邮寄给有权接收会议通知的股东[6] * 补充材料已于2025年8月21日左右邮寄给上述股东[7] * 公司已收到来自Popin Merrill Canada和Broadridge Investor Communications Corporation的宣誓书 确认会议通知及其他会议材料已邮寄给公司股东[7] * 监票人为Odyssey Trust公司的代表[6] * 会议设有问答环节 但最终没有股东提出问题[21][22] 合并交易相关方 * 合并协议涉及多方 包括Mount Logan 180 Degree Capital Corp（纽约州注册公司） Yukon New Parents Inc（特拉华州注册公司 180 Degree Capital的全资子公司 后将更名为Mount Logan Capital Inc 即New Mount Logan） Polar Merger Sub Inc（纽约州注册公司 New Mount Logan的全资子公司）以及Moose Merger Sub LLC（特拉华州注册有限责任公司 New Mount Logan的全资子公司 简称MLC Merger Sub）[11]

公司及行业 * 公司为Celsius Holdings (CELH) 专注于能量饮料行业[1][2][4] * 行业为美国及加拿大的能量饮料市场[4][6][17] 核心交易与战略要点 * 公司与百事公司达成战略合作扩展协议 被任命为百事公司在美国市场的战略能量饮料负责人[4][7] * 协议内容包括将Alani New品牌转入百事公司在美加的领先分销系统[5][8] * 公司同意以5.85亿美元新发行可转换优先股为对价 从百事公司收购Rockstar Energy品牌在美加的业务[6][10][13] * 交易使百事公司所有权增至约11% 并获得一个额外董事会席位[7][13] * 此次合作旨在创建一个在美国能量饮料类别中占据20%份额的产品组合[17] * 交易结构被类比为怪物饮料与可口可乐的交易模型[25][27] 财务影响与预期 * 百事公司的5.85亿美元优先股投资附带5%的股息[14] * 公司预期该交易在第一完整年度对现金每股收益具有增值作用[14] * 预计Q4将因向百事系统过渡而产生库存冲销和废料 对利润率造成额外压力 类似此前Celsius品牌过渡时的情况[12][68] * Rockstar品牌预计将为公司增加约2.5亿美元以上的年销售额[13][38] * 公司资产负债表保持强劲 拥有支持整合、增长投资和债务削减的流动性[14] * Rockstar的长期利润率预计将经历12-18个月的爬升期 从类似Celsius在2020-2022年的水平过渡到2023-2025年的水平[54] 运营与整合细节 * 所有协议已签署并完成 包括分销、负责人协议、优先股发行和收购[10] * 过渡服务协议和制造协议将生效1至7个月不等[10][11] * 公司计划将Alani New的DSD（直销分销）大部分在12月1日过渡到百事系统 因此年底前在百事系统中仅有一个月的活动[11][12] * 公司将对Rockstar品牌采取 disciplined 方法 包括稳定品牌、优化SKU和利用其品牌遗产[9] * 部分百事公司负责Rockstar品牌的员工将过渡到Celsius Holdings[9] * 百事公司将资助Alani New从当前分销系统退出的终止费[30] 市场与品牌战略 * Alani New是现代能量饮料中增长最快的品牌 转入百事系统有望实现ACV（全商品量）显著扩张并加速其在食品服务渠道的渗透[8] * Rockstar带来经典能量饮料口味和形式 与以性能为导向的Celsius和现代生活方式品牌Alani New形成互补[6][9] * Rockstar在太平洋西北地区表现良好 该地区是公司产品组合历来较弱的区域 收购有助于弥补此短板[52] * Rockstar服务于能量饮料类别中庞大的传统细分市场 而Celsius和Alani则专注于现代增长[9][52] * 公司计划在Celsius和Alani品牌下推出限时优惠产品[69][70] 风险与过渡管理 * 公司承认在过渡期间系统内会出现一些噪音 特别是在接下来的三到四个月[11] * 公司预计会对Rockstar产品组合进行一些优化和SKU合理化[35][36] * 公司拥有从之前Celsius过渡中获得的流程和经验 以减轻对销售的干扰和影响[40][66][67] * 零售扫描数据与品牌报表收入之间存在差异 Rockstar的6亿美元零售额与2.5亿美元报表收入之间的差距是由于分销层级和促销等因素造成[35][37][38] 其他重要信息 * 作为能量饮料负责人 公司获得了对产品组合、平台、货架陈列规划、SKU优先级和促销策略的战略控制权 包括某些优先期[7][21][22][44] * 合作增强了与百事公司在销售组织、供应链和运营方面的协同效应 公司近几个季度的毛利率提升已体现了部分效率[46] * 分销激励结构进行了重组 更侧重于负责人职责和统一的商业战略[58][59] * 公司认为能量饮料类别将继续增长和扩张 没有放缓的迹象[27]

纪要涉及的行业或公司 * 中国离岸和在岸股票市场 包括MSCI中国指数和沪深300指数[1] * 中国宏观经济[6] * 科技/互联网、消费服务、保险和材料等行业[49] 纪要提到的核心观点和论据 * **流动性驱动的涨势具有持续性** 尽管宏观经济出现周期性疲软且盈利预期平淡 但多重因素支持涨势延续 包括中国股票估值处于中游水平、趋势盈利增长在高个位数、A股散户风险偏好仅略高于中性、各类投资者的基金持仓远未达拥挤水平、资产再配置资金流入股市的潜力强劲 关键风险是市场流动性突然收紧、监管冲击和宏观政策令人失望[1] * **经济放缓与股市上涨并存** 宏观数据显示7月开始出现增长疲态 经济学家预计在实现全年5%增长目标后 2025年剩余时间增长将放缓 上市公司共识盈利修正趋势近月停滞 维持2025年8-9%的EPS增长预测 高于卖方对H股5%的共识但低于A股15%的共识[6] * **政策提振乐观情绪并推高估值** MSCI中国和沪深300指数年内分别上涨27%和11% 主要受估值倍数扩张驱动 归因于一系列政策相关事件和积极催化剂 包括去年9月的政策转向、1月底的"DeepSeek时刻"、2月的POE研讨会、4月下旬中美贸易紧张局势缓和以及7月初的CCFEA会议 这些事件压缩了股权/政策风险溢价并支撑了远期盈利预期[11] * **全球性的流动性驱动市场上涨** 全球前十大股市（除中国外）中有8个正交易于或接近其历史高点 中国离岸和在岸股票分别较2021年历史高点低34%和26% 全球主要股市板块都显现出实体经济与金融经济表现的分化 宏观与市场的相关性降至低点 表明流动性因素和估值扩张（而非周期性宏观基本面）是全球股市上涨的主要推手[13] * **估值起点较低** MSCI中国指数基于市值加权和中位数股票的12个月共识市盈率分别为12.6倍和15.2倍 较10年均值偏离0.3和-0.4个标准差 A股小盘股（中证1000）绝对估值较高（23倍 偏离0.7个标准差）但较2015年历史市盈率峰值低50% 中国股票相对发达市场存在显著估值折让 与新兴市场 peers 大致持平 估值模型显示MSCI中国公平市盈率约为12.5倍 沪深300均衡市盈率可达15.8倍[18][24] * **A股市场情绪尚未达到狂热水平** 尽管交易数据惊人（上证综指处于10年高位 散户融资余额接近2015年2.3万亿元人民币的峰值 现金成交额连续12天超过2万亿元人民币） 但综合风险偏好指标显示投资者情绪虽近期改善 却远未达到2015年杠杆推动的飙升和2024年9月政策触发上涨时的狂热水平 若风险偏好回到2024年和2015年峰值 沪深300指数将分别交易于5180点和5870点（较当前+18%和+34%）[32][33] * **投资者持仓远未拥挤** 中国投资者是此轮牛市的主要资金提供者 但国内共同基金近几周才开始提高股票持仓 国内保险公司股票配置显著低于30%的法定上限 对冲基金和主动型基金全球范围内对中国股票的持仓仍顽固地低于历史区间或基准权重 表明持仓和配置存在上行潜力[34][38] * **资产再配置流动可能正在进行** 中国家庭对房地产过度暴露而对股票配置不足 资产向股票再配置的必要条件正逐渐具备 包括后疫情时代积累的55万亿元人民币超额家庭储蓄（部分定期存款即将到期）、房地产市场L型复苏不太可能被视为财富积累的主要投资工具、一系列公司治理和监管改革（特别是"九条措施"）提高了股票的投资吸引力和实际回报、反内卷运动有助于加强金融市场的再通胀预期从而降低实际收益率并驱动资金从债券轮动至股票[41] * **风险与历史教训** 历史上高估值本身很少标志流动性驱动牛市的转折点 而是政策冲击（如2015年去杠杆、2021年对开发商和民企的监管打压、2024年9月政策转向后的失望）导致牛市逆转 鉴于股市对经济的重要性增加（资源配置、为新的生产性增长动力融资、为家庭创造财富和正面情绪） 除非出现更明显的估值过高和投机猖獗证据 否则政策引发的股市下跌可能性较低[46] * **保持超配并关注阿尔法机会** 建议保持超配中国H股和A股 维持MSCI中国12个月目标90点（10%回报） 将沪深300目标上调至4900点（此前为4500点 12%上行空间） 强调阿尔法优于贝塔的偏好 重申看好中国民企（Prominent 10）、股东回报和部分反内卷受益者主题 超配TMT/互联网、消费服务、保险和材料行业以获取更好的风险回报[49] 其他重要但可能被忽略的内容 * 报告由高盛（亚洲）和高盛（新加坡）的分析师团队（Kinger Lau, Timothy Moe, Si Fu, Kevin Wang）撰写[4] * 包含大量图表数据支持论点 例如宏观活动指标（CAI）与市场表现的相关性、各行业盈利修正趋势、历史牛市行情关键指标对比、各类投资者对中国股票的持仓比例和配置水平、潜在资产再配置资金规模估算等[2][7][9][10][15][16][17][22][26][27][28][31][36][37][40][44][48][51] * 附录部分提供了基于模型的MSCI中国指数估值敏感性分析 列出了增长、政策利率、汇率/资金流、市场风险等多个变量变化对市盈率的潜在影响[52][53] * 文件包含详细的法律声明、披露附录和地区特定监管披露信息[55][56][57][58][59][60][61][62][63][64][65][66][67][68][69][70][71][72][73][74][75][76][77][78]

公司及行业 * 中远海运港口有限公司 (COSCO Shipping Ports Ltd, 1199 HK) [1] * 全球港口运营及集装箱码头行业 [1] 财务业绩 * 公司上半年净利润为1.82亿美元 同比增长31% 环比增长7% 超出市场预期 占全年预测的59% [1] * 第二季度净利润为9800万美元 同比增长28% 环比增长17% [1] * 公司宣布中期股息每股15.1港仙 派息比率维持在40% 年化股息收益率为5.5% [1] 业务表现与驱动因素 * 利润增长主要由海外码头驱动 海外码头利润增至5700万美元 同比大幅增长187% [1][2] * 中国内地码头利润保持基本稳定 同比增长1% [1][2] * 地中海地区利润领先 达3700万美元 同比增长150% 主要得益于比雷埃夫斯码头更高的堆存收入和吞吐量恢复 [2] * 欧洲地区利润增长强劲 达940万美元 同比增长297% 主要由CSP西班牙和CSP泽布吕赫码头在联盟重组背景下实现更高吞吐量驱动 [2][5] * 总吞吐量在上半年同比增长6% [7] * 中国国内码头中 珠三角地区吞吐量增长领先 同比增长7% 主要受益于盐田码头同比增长13% [7] * 海外码头吞吐量增长8% 泽布吕赫增长45% 苏伊士运河增长25% [7] 平均单箱收入与成本 * 中国附属码头平均单箱收入同比下降2% 部分原因是受美国关税上调影响 如南通港至美货量减少 [7] * 欧洲附属码头平均单箱收入维持同比增长10% 管理层归因于与船公司协商的更高 tariff、堆存收入及箱型结构变化 [1][7] * 附属公司息税前利润率基本稳定在17% [7] * 净利息支出下降14% 平均借贷成本降至4.7% [7] 资本支出与投资 * 上半年资本支出为1.6亿美元 其中1.34亿美元用于物业、厂房及设备 2600万美元用于投资 [7] * 2025年全年资本支出预算为7.9亿美元 其中6.14亿美元预算用于现有码头的物业、厂房及设备 其余用于股权投资 [7] * 目前正在进行的股权收购包括泰国林查邦码头和和记黄埔林查邦码头 预计于2025年9月完成 [7] 前景与指引 * 公司参考德路里对2025年全球吞吐量增长1.9%的预测作为指引 [1][7] * 基于此指引 预计第三季度吞吐量因去库存将同比下降0.8% 第四季度预计将进一步环比下降 [1][7] 投资观点与风险 * 投资评级为买入 12个月目标价为5.3港元 [6][9] * 目标价基于2025年预测净资产价值的分类加总估值法 [6] * 下行风险包括 全球贸易差于预期 海外并购执行不力 [6] * 看好公司的增长潜力 驱动因素包括 持续的港口 tariff 上调以向船公司转嫁通胀 母公司驱动的货量增长 海外扩张推动长期增长 [8] * 公司并购可能性评级为3 代表成为收购目标的可能性低 (0%-15%) [9][15]

公司及行业 * 公司为HG Tech (000988 SZ) 一家中国通信和电子设备制造商 主要产品包括光收发器 传感器 电信设备和激光工具[14] * 行业涉及光通信模块 特别是用于数据中心人工智能应用的高速光模块(如400G和800G)[1][7][14] 核心观点与论据 * 公司是中国国内AI光收发器增长的关键受益者 基于供应链调研 预计本地客户将从2025年第四季度至2026年第一季度开始从400G向800G迁移 这将驱动公司2026-27年的增长[1][7] * 800G产品在国内市场的毛利率超过20% 高于400G的低于20% 因此产品升级将带来更好的平均销售价格(ASP)和利润率[7] * 公司正在为北美客户进行800G LPO产品的认证阶段 若能在2026年进入大规模出货阶段 分析显示其净利润有高达28%的增量上行空间[1][2][4] * 此增量上行空间的测算基于泰国生产基地每月10万单位的满产产能 以及340美元的ASP和25%的净利率假设 年收入贡献可达4 08亿美元 增量净利润为1 02亿美元(约合7 45亿人民币)[2][3][4] * 基于对升级步伐更强的信心 研究报告将公司2026-27年收入预测上调1%~2% 净利润预测上调1%~5%[8][9] * 12个月目标价上调至71元人民币(原为62元) 依据是27倍2026年预期市盈率(原为24倍) 以反映更强的增长前景和利润率改善 此估值与本地同行(Eoptolink Innolight)的目标市盈率倍数(27/28倍2026年预期市盈率)一致 并处于公司历史平均市盈率(24倍)加一个标准差(28倍)的水平[8][11] 其他重要内容 * 公司的投资论点基于其向高端光收发器(800G和400G模块)的扩张 这应能推动利润率改善并加速2026-27年的净利润增长 当前估值处于其历史交易区间的低端 具有吸引力[14] * 主要下行风险包括 1) 400G 800G光收发器出货量增长慢于预期 2) 利润率低于预期 3) 地缘政治紧张和供应链中断[15] * 研究报告维持对公司的买入(Buy)评级[1][14]

公司：Eyebright (688050.SS) **财务业绩** * 1H25收入增长14.7% 但较Goldman Sachs (GSe)预期低1.3% [1] * 1H25净利润为2.13亿元人民币 同比增长2.5% 但较GSe预期低4.4% [1] * 第二季度收入同比增长2.5% 较第一季度的16.0%同比增幅显著放缓 [2] **分业务表现** * 人工晶体(IOL)销售额在1H25同比增长8.2% 此增长是在行业白内障手术量下降的背景下实现的 表明公司正在夺取市场份额 [1][2] * 角膜塑形镜(OK镜)销售额在1H25同比增长5.6% 公司尚未感受到北京自6月起指导价降价约50%的政策影响 但预计下半年增长将面临压力 [2] * 隐形眼镜(Contact lens)销售额在1H25同比增长28.9% 但与2H24相比相对持平 主要由于价格竞争 [2] **毛利率与产品结构** * 1H25毛利率稳定在65.3% (1Q25/2Q25分别为64.6%/65.8%) 带量采购(VBP)降价影响已体现 [6] * 公司通过增加高毛利率的双焦人工晶体(bifocal IOLs)销售来缓解VBP降价影响 VBP后双焦人工晶体的收入贡献占比在提升 [2][6] * 预计2025年毛利率将更高 因为低毛利率的隐形眼镜业务在下半年增长应会放缓 [6] **新产品与研发管线** * 公司在1H25获得了有晶体眼人工晶体(PIOL)产品(Loong Crystal)和硅水凝胶软性隐形眼镜的NMPA批准 [7] * 公司产品正逐步进入医院 但未披露任何销售数字 [2] * 预计将在2H25获得景深延长型人工晶体(EDoF IOL)批准 2026年获得三焦人工晶体(trifocal IOL)和彩色硅水凝胶软性隐形眼镜批准 [7] * 研发管线包含20款产品 覆盖眼科、医美和外科手术领域 [8] **预测与估值** * 将2025E/26E/27E净利润预测上调+2.8%/+2.3%/+1.6% 以反映毛利率高于预期和隐形眼镜销售增长放缓的综合影响 [8] * 维持买入评级和12个月目标价111元人民币 较当前股价76.05元有46.0%上行空间 [8][14] * 目标价基于两阶段DCF模型 假设第二阶段现金流增长率从11%逐步降至2% 终端增长率2% WACC为10% [12] 行业：眼科医疗器械 **行业趋势** * 白内障手术行业手术量出现下降 [1][2] * 人工晶体产品存在持续的高端化(premiumization)趋势 [1] * 角膜塑形镜(OK镜)面临政策风险 北京地区自6月起指导价降价约50% [2] * 隐形眼镜领域存在价格竞争 [2] **竞争格局** * Eyebright是中国领先的眼科器械制造商 2024年在人工晶体(IOL)和角膜塑形镜(OK镜)领域的销量份额分别为26%和15.6% [11] * 公司凭借强大的研发能力和积极的商业执行 正从跨国公司(MNCs)手中夺取份额 [11] **增长驱动** * 白内障手术市场的稳健增长由老龄化人口和人工晶体在国家级带量采购后的升级需求驱动 [11] * 公司额外的增长驱动来自其新兴产品管线 包括隐形眼镜、离焦镜片(defocus lens)和有晶体眼人工晶体(PIOL) [11] * 有晶体眼人工晶体(PIOL)的销售放量是2025E的关键催化剂 [11]

公司及行业 * 华兰生物工程股份有限公司（Hualan Biological Engineering，002007 SZ）[1] * 血浆制品行业[1] * 疫苗行业[1] 核心财务表现 * 公司2025年上半年收入为17 98亿元人民币，同比增长9%[1] * 净利润为5 16亿元人民币，同比增长17%[1] * 白蛋白收入6 96亿元人民币，同比增长8%[1] * 静注人免疫球蛋白（IVIG）收入4 53亿元人民币，同比下降1%[1] * 其他血浆制品收入5 88亿元人民币，同比增长15%[1] * 疫苗收入5700万元人民币，同比增长93%[1] * 白蛋白和静注人免疫球蛋白的单位售价均下降约5%[1] 业务运营与战略 * 公司持有40%股权的华兰基因（Hualan Gene）的贝伐珠单抗生物类似药获批，上半年收入5890万元人民币，但不并入上市公司报表[3] * 公司增长动力源于2022年和2024年分别新获批的7家和2家血浆站，这些站点正在扩大原材料供应[4][9] * 管理层强调其白蛋白和静注人免疫球蛋白的价格表现优于行业同行，且未面临库存压力[1] 行业动态与竞争格局 * 中国首个重组白蛋白（由Oryzogen生产）于2025年7月18日获批，但其适应症仅限于肝硬化引起的低白蛋白血症[2] * 管理层认为重组白蛋白对血浆来源白蛋白的近期影响有限[2] * 长期来看，公司预计人血白蛋白将保持固有的使用习惯和成本优势，不认为重组白蛋白会对行业构成重大威胁[2] * 血浆行业竞争加剧[1] 投资观点与估值 * 高盛维持对公司的买入评级，12个月目标价为19元人民币，较当前17 60元股价有8 0%上行空间[10][11] * 估值基于18 1倍的2025年预期每股收益退出市盈率，参考全球同行19倍市盈率 10%的5年盈利复合年增长率以及37 5%的A H股溢价[10] * 公司当前1年前瞻市盈率处于其过去5年历史的最低四分位[9] * 关键催化剂包括血浆制品需求的可持续增长以及中国流感疫苗的接种率[9] 风险因素 * 新临床指南对白蛋白处方使用实施更严格的控制[10] * 由于对生产商的监管限制大于经销商，静注人免疫球蛋白的出厂价涨幅远低于终端用户价格[10] * 应收账款天数增加可能导致资产减值[10] * 流感疫苗竞争加剧[10] 财务预测调整 * 高盛将公司2025年收入预测从50 735亿元人民币下调至48 433亿元人民币，下调幅度4 5%[8] * 2025年净利润预测从13 93亿元人民币微调至13 86亿元人民币，下调幅度0 5%[8] * 2026年收入预测从55 218亿元人民币下调至52 571亿元人民币，下调幅度4 8%[8] * 2026年净利润预测从14 75亿元人民币上调至15 02亿元人民币，上调幅度1 8%[8] * 2027年收入预测从58 802亿元人民币下调至55 891亿元人民币，下调幅度5 0%[8] * 2027年净利润预测从15 48亿元人民币上调至15 62亿元人民币，上调幅度0 9%[8] 其他重要内容 * 公司市值322亿元人民币（45亿美元）[11] * 企业价值315亿元人民币（44亿美元）[11] * 3个月平均日交易额2 867亿元人民币（4010万美元）[11] * 公司的并购可能性评级为3，即成为收购目标的可能性较低（0% 15%）[11][15]

涉及的公司与行业 * 公司：顺丰控股 (S.F. Holding, 002352.SZ/6936.HK) 与 嘉里物流 (Kerry Logistics, 0636.HK) [1] * 行业：综合物流、快递、货运代理、供应链管理 [1][9] 核心观点与论据 顺丰控股 (S.F. Holding) 2Q25 业绩与展望 * **收入符合预期，利润低于预期**：2Q25 收入同比增长 11% 至 770.08 亿人民币，符合预期，但剔除 10 亿人民币投资利得后的税前净利润为 25.77 亿人民币，低于高盛预期 13%，同比下降 3% [1][14] * **灵活定价策略推动市场份额增长**：为应对竞争，公司采取灵活定价策略，1H25 时效快递业务收入增长 7%，整体包裹量增长加速至 19% 同比，市场份额从 2H24 的 7.4% 扩大至 1H25 的 8.2% [2] * **利润率短期承压，长期改善可期**：2Q25 毛利率为 13.1% (低于高盛预期的 14.6%)，EBIT 利润率为 5.1% (低于高盛预期的 6.0%)，主因灵活定价策略，但运营效率提升部分抵消了影响；公司计划继续投资提升服务质量并维持灵活定价，预计短期毛利率仍有压力，但对 2026 年基于扩大的业务规模实现利润率改善充满信心 [3] * **供应链与国际业务韧性增长**：1H25 供应链与国际业务收入同比增长 10% (但低于高盛预期 2%)，尽管在关税不确定性下增长较 2H24 放缓，但该业务在中国企业出海的大趋势下展现韧性，公司拥有 107 架全货机、79 个清关服务口岸等增强的跨境多式联运能力；高盛预计其 2025 年该业务收入将增长 10% [4][9] * **强劲现金流支持股东回报**：公司宣布派发 25 亿人民币中期股息，派息率为 40%；1H25 资本开支（不含股权投资）同比下降 24% 至 42 亿人民币 (占总收入 2.9%，去年同期为 4.1%)，因鄂州航空货运枢纽等主要投资项目已于 2023 年基本完成；管理层预计 2025 年绝对资本开支将与 2024 年持平 (<100 亿人民币) [10] * **推出长期员工持股计划**：公司推出为期 9 年的“共同成长”员工持股计划，控股股东将无偿捐赠不超过 2 亿股 A 股 (约占已发行股本的 4%) [11] * **目标价与评级**：维持对顺丰 A/H 股的“买入”评级，A 股 12 个月目标价维持 57 元人民币 (基于 8 倍 2025 年 EV/EBITDA)，H 股目标价从 47 港元上调至 52 港元 (基于 7 倍 2025 年 EV/EBITDA，因 A/H 股折价收窄) [12] 嘉里物流 (Kerry Logistics) 展望与风险 * **评级与目标价**：维持对嘉里物流的“中性”评级，基于 SOTP 的 12 个月目标价从 8.3 港元上调至 9.0 港元，主要风险包括货运代理费率及地缘政治不确定性 [13] * **业绩预测调整**：基于 1H25 业绩，将 2025-27E 收入预测上调 6%，现预计 FY25/26E 收入同比增长 3%/3%，并将 2025-27E 核心净利润预测微调 4%-5%，因国际货运代理利润超预期 [28][29] * **关键风险**：包括顺丰与嘉里整合加速带来的利润率改善、全球贸易和商业活动强于预期、出售亏损业务带来现金流改善超预期、中国合同物流和/或东盟快递市场竞争缓和 [30] 财务数据与预测调整 (顺丰控股) * **2Q25 关键财务数据**：收入 770.08 亿人民币 (同比 +11%)，毛利润 101.22 亿人民币 (同比 +1%)，EBIT (高盛定义) 39.21 亿人民币 (同比 -3%)，归属于股东净利润 35.04 亿人民币 (同比 +21%)，税前净利润 25.77 亿人民币 (同比 +3%) [14][16] * **预测调整**：将 2025-27E 收入预测微调 0-1%，主要因供应链与国际业务收入增长更强劲；将 2025-27E 净利润预测下调 2%~0%，主因灵活定价策略；预计 2025E 集团收入增长 9% (不变)，3Q25 收入增长 10% [12][17] * **利润率展望**：预计 3Q25/FY25E 毛利率为 13.4%/13.3% (此前为 14.2%/14.1%)，净利率为 3.8%/3.7% (此前为 4.1%/3.8%) [3] 其他重要内容 * **行业竞争与定价**：数据显示主要快递公司 (如中通、韵达、圆通、申通等) 的日均包裹量和单票收入同比变化，反映了行业内的价格竞争态势 [26][27] * **风险提示**：对顺丰的关键风险包括 prolonged price competition ( prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition 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competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price