October 12, 2026 10:48 PM GMT Global Thematics | North America Are Enterprises Really Adopting Open-Weight Models? Our answer is yes. Our 3Q26 CIO Survey shows 45% of enterprises are using open-weights models today, and this is expected to rise to 90% in 3 years. We address the three key questions on how companies are using open-weights models, and our "3 States of the World" framework outlines stock picks. M Key Takeaways The world is increasingly multi-model...but are enterprises on the same page? As we'v ...

October 12, 2026 10:33 PM GMT US Tech | North America 3Q26 CIO Survey — Better Budgets, Still Waiting for a Broader Inflection 2026 IT budget growth expectations improve to +4.0% (+23 bps QoQ), with stronger long-term confidence supporting a healthier backdrop. However, near-term revision expectations soften and 2027 growth looks broadly stable. AI remains a priority, but still waiting for a broader IT spending inflection. M 2026 Budgets Improve, With The First Look at 2027 Pointing to Stable Growth Our lat ...

Private tech is a leading indicator of where capital, talent & tech are moving. At our Spark Private Company Conference (Oct. 13- 15), we expect to speak to 100+ private companies across inference, vertical AI, security, semis/hardware, embodied AI, and more. We outline themes we're most focused on. October 13, 2026 04:00 AM GMT Global Thematics & Technology | North America Spark Preview: What Will Privates Tell Us About the AI Cycle? M Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in ...

Vi e w p o i n t | 14 Oct 2026 02:40:02 ET │ 38 pages Global Technology & Communications Citi CIO Survey: IT Budgets Improve; AI Continues To Gain Wallet Share CITI'S TAKE Our 3Q26 CIO Survey (N=100) points to a modest improvement in global IT spending intentions. Global NTM IT budget growth expectations increased to +3.4% from +3.3% in June, driven primarily by a reacceleration in the US to 3.9% while EMEA growth moderated sharply to +1.8%. CIO investment priorities continue to skew toward AI-driven initia ...

11 October 2026 US Industrials & Tech Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D. +1 213 559 5917 stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Mark C. Newman +1 212 845 7822 mark.newman@bernsteinsg.com Alex Wang, CFA +852 2123 2613 alex.wang@bernsteinsg.com US Industrials & Tech: The Data Center Project Pipeline - Capacity, Construction & Cancellations (Sept '26) Chad Dillard +1 917 344 8469 chad.dillard@bernsteinsg.com Madison Rezaei +1 917 344 8622 madison.rezaei@bernsteinsg.com Alasdair Leslie +44 20 7762 4952 alasdair.leslie@bernsteinsg.co ...

October 15, 2026 08:00 PM GMT US Equity Strategy & GVAT Following AI's $1.6 trillion Money Trail: Mapping the Revenue Generated by the Capex Boom We map hyperscaler and neocloud cash and lease capex to single-stock revenue. Our new lease capex estimates increase total AI investment by $195bn to $1.6tr in 2027. This capex drives ~25% of SPX sales growth next year, and AI enablers/adopters broadly account for 78% of earnings growth. Key Takeaways | M | Not for redistribution without written consent of Morgan ...

J P M O R G A N Marc Vitenzon (1-212) 622-3342 marc.vitenzon@jpmchase.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC North America Equity Research 13 October 2026 Hardware & Networking Cloud DC Capex Outlook Climbs Higher for 2026 and 2027, Supported by Rising Power Capacity The data center capex outlook among the top four U.S. CSPs continues to trend higher for both 2026 and 2027 following our last update, driven by revised expectations from the CSPs themselves, as well as robust trends across installed and planned North ...

怎么看待 AI 信用风险？美债企稳，美股轮动 20261018 CoreWeave 信用风险折射 AI 融资分化，美债利率企稳驱动板块 轮动 摘要 CoreWeave CDS 利差走扩暴露"新云"模式风险：高杠杆、资产折旧 快、客户集中度高（如微软）导致违约担忧加剧。 数据中心融资环境结构性分化：传统云厂商（AWS/谷歌等）现金流稳 健受影响小，资源向大厂倾斜，AI 投资进入金融收紧的中期阶段。 美债收益率在 CPI 超预期下回落：5%以上配置价值凸显，空头回补及股 市资金流入债市，利率与 AI 板块从对立转向共存。 美股板块轮动呈现跷跷板效应：资金在 AI 概念股与利率敏感型防御板块 （金融、地产）间切换，支撑大盘整体跌幅受控。 短期关注两大尾部风险：一是 AI 板块信用风险事件发酵，二是油价冲高 （布油一度达 110 美元）引发的通胀与加息预期反弹。 Q&A 近期市场对 AI 领域的信用风险关注度上升，尤其是云计算服务商 CoreWeave 的信用违约互换利差大幅攀升，请问这一事件的直接导火索是什 么？市场担忧的核心问题又有哪些？ 近期美股自周三以来的下跌，一个重要的导火索源于云计算服务商 CoreWea ...

北美 CSP 厂商 AI 投入决心未减，AI 应用收入正从模型公司向云服务商 转移，需重点观测 2026Q3 微软、亚马逊等"AI for Enterprise"业务 的收入增长。 网络互联技术路径尚未收敛，英伟达与思科推出 USFP 方案，单通道支 持 400G，预示可插拔光模块生命周期将长于预期，CPO 规模化应用或 将推迟。 电口速率上限被突破，思科与博通发布 448G 电口铜缆方案；同时多芯 光纤、保偏光纤及空心光纤因解决高密度互联需求，价值量较传统光纤 提升百倍以上。 光纤供给受限于锗等稀散金属原料，全球产量增长缓慢，叠加 AI 驱动的 产品结构升级（如 3 万元/芯公里的特种光纤），行业具备强业绩确定性。 液冷技术随 Blackwell 架构及 CSP 自研机柜批量出货进入业绩兑现期， 涵盖 CDU、Manifold 等环节，中国供应链企业具备明显竞争优势。 光模块板块估值已回落至 2025 年 3 月低位水平，在可插拔方案生命周 期延长的预期差下，当前具备较高配置价值。 Q&A 基于近期全球股票市场的回撤、融资条件恶化与股票估值压缩的三重分化背景， 当前 AI 算力需求的真实性与可持续性如何？ ...

摘要 AWS 2027 年增速预计超 40%，2026Q3 增量利润率维持 50%以上， 整体利润率或超 40%。 亚马逊、Meta、Alphabet 2027 年资本开支预估分别为 3,500 亿、 2,250 亿、3,750 亿美元，显著高于卖方预期。 Meta 核心业务 2026Q3 营收预计增 25%，支付与订阅板块因 Agent 产品接受度高，Q4 起将提速。 Google Cloud 2027 年增速预计达 120%，主要受 3.5GW 的 TPU 第 三方销售驱动，但低毛利 TPU 业务将压制整体利润率扩张。 谷歌 Core Search 业务受汇率及基数影响，2026Q3 增速预计为 14%，低于市场一致预期的 15%。 亚马逊自动化仓库效率提升超 25%，每 5%-10%订单自动化处理可年 省 20 亿-40 亿美元成本。 Meta Muse 智能体每 1 亿日活需 1GW 算力支撑，预计 2028 年才产生 实质财务贡献，Meta 正加速进军企业级 AI 市场。 Q&A 鉴于近期将英伟达的最新财报数据纳入考量，AWS 业务未来一年的增长预期 和利润率展望有何调整？具体的增长逻辑和预测依据是 ...