Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of BABA, PDD, JD either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whet ...

市场环境 - 标普500指数近期波动剧烈 主要受中美贸易关税谈判反复影响 导致市场价格剧烈震荡[1] - 中国股市在此过程中承受最大压力 投资者情绪普遍负面 部分科技股价格已偏离实际价值[3] 阿里巴巴基本面 - 当前股价124 74美元 较52周高点148 43美元回升至84%位置 表现优于百度等中概股及谷歌等美国科技龙头[7] - 市盈率18 04倍 股息率0 79% 华尔街平均目标价150 36美元 隐含20 3%上行空间[2][10] - 摩根士丹利分析师Gary Yu最新给予180美元目标价 较现价潜在涨幅达46 3%[12] 业务多元化优势 - 电商业务虽受关税影响 但公司已转型为综合科技平台 重点布局人工智能和云计算[4] - 数据中心覆盖亚洲、欧洲及中东地区 通过消费趋势分析开发针对性解决方案[5] - 云计算业务在区域市场渗透率超越部分国际龙头 形成差异化竞争力[6] 财务表现 - 机构本季度增持38亿美元 反映资金认可度[8] - 过去12个月营收增长7% 各业务线均实现两位数增长 显著优于中国整体经济表现[9][10] - 空头头寸近一月下降10 1% 显示做空力量撤退[13] 增长预期 - 分析师认为当前业绩已触底 未来经济复苏将打开增长空间[11] - 云计算和物流等新兴业务贡献提升 支撑长期估值重构[10]

On May 11, the United States and China agreed to a 90-day pause in their trade dispute. The United States agreed to slash tariffs from 145% to 30%, and China agreed to reduce its reciprocal tariffs from 125% to 10%. The glass-half-empty crowd will fall back on the saying: the devil is in the details. Even in the best of times, Chinese stocks carry some risk. Even though the companies are listed on U.S. exchanges, there is an opaqueness to the companies' finances that can be troubling. Now add in weakness in ...

"We're in an asset bubble, and TQI can help you navigate it profitably"I am Ahan Vashi, a seasoned investor with professional background in equity research, private equity, and software engineering. I currently serve as the Chief Financial Engineer at The Quantamental Investor, a community pursuing financial freedom through bold, active investing with proactive risk management. TQI was established in July 2022 with a singular mission to make investing simple, fun, and profitable for all investors. In alignm ...

Downtown Beijing on May 2, 2025.Greg Baker | Afp | Getty ImagesBEIJING — Alibaba, Tencent and JD.com reported earnings this week that not only reflected improving Chinese consumer spending, but also the growing benefits of artificial intelligence in advertising.E-commerce giant Alibaba said late Thursday its Taobao and Tmall group sales rose by 9% year on year to 101.37 billion yuan ($13.97 billion) for the three months ended March 31. That's above the 97.94 billion yuan predicted by a FactSet analyst poll, ...

报告公司投资评级 - 报告对阿里巴巴给出“BUY”评级，新目标价为每股美国存托股票（ADS）155.5美元，对应2026财年预测市盈率（非公认会计准则）为15.7倍 [1][22] 报告的核心观点 - 阿里巴巴2025财年第四季度核心盈利超预期，云业务收入增长有进一步加速潜力，“云 + AI”和电商是未来关键战略发展领域 [1] - 淘宝和天猫集团盈利增长有望在2026财年第一季度持续，但即时电商投资增加或影响短期盈利增长；云业务收入同比增速有望在第一季度持续加快 [1] - 下调2026 - 2027财年收入预测5%，非公认会计准则净利润下调7 - 9%，但仍看好阿里巴巴在AI时代成为关键受益者 [5][18] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据 - 2025财年第四季度总收入2365亿元，同比增长6.6%，调整后息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITA）326亿元，同比增长36% [1] - 预计2026 - 2028财年营收分别为10410.23亿元、11180.03亿元、11834.12亿元，净利润分别为1460.01亿元、1652.96亿元、1855.94亿元 [6][28] 业务板块表现 - **淘宝和天猫集团（T&T）**：2025财年第四季度收入1014亿元，同比增长9%，客户管理收入（CMR）711亿元，同比增长12%；调整后EBITA 417亿元，同比增长8%，利润率41.2%，超共识1个百分点 [7][8] - **菜鸟（Cainiao）**：2025财年第四季度收入216亿元，同比下降12%；调整后EBITA亏损6.06亿元，较2024财年第四季度的13亿元亏损有所收窄 [9] - **阿里巴巴国际数字商业集团（AIDC）**：2025财年第四季度收入336亿元，同比增长22%；调整后EBITA亏损36亿元，较2024财年第四季度的41亿元亏损有所收窄，目标在2026财年实现单季度盈亏平衡 [10][11] - **云智能集团（CIG）**：2025财年第四季度收入301亿元，同比增长18%；调整后EBITA利润率达8%，同比扩大2.4个百分点 [12][13] - **本地生活服务集团（LSG）**：2025财年第四季度收入161亿元，同比增长10%；调整后EBITA亏损23亿元，较2024财年第四季度的32亿元亏损有所收窄，但超共识 [14] 股东回报 - 2025财年阿里巴巴共回购119亿美元股票，流通股减少5.1%；董事会批准2025财年派发总计46亿美元的年度和特别股息，占5月15日总市值的1.2% [15] 预测调整 - 下调2026 - 2027财年收入预测5%，以反映AIDC收入预测下调和自2025年2月以来高鑫零售的剥离 [5][18] - 下调非公认会计准则净利润7 - 9%，考虑到T&T集团和LSG为加速即时电商业务投资的增量投入 [5][18] 估值 - 基于分部加总估值法（SOTP）得出新目标价155.5美元/ADS，对应2026/2027财年预测市盈率（非公认会计准则）为15.7倍/13.6倍 [22] - 各业务板块估值：淘宝和天猫集团79.1美元/ADS；AIDC 14.0美元/ADS；本地生活服务集团4.5美元/ADS；菜鸟2.8美元/ADS；云智能集团33.8美元/ADS；数字媒体及娱乐集团1.0美元/ADS；其他业务9.5美元/ADS；战略投资10.9美元/ADS [25]

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE: BABA ) just released its March quarter earnings . The release missed on both revenue and EPS, triggering a major selloff in BABA stock. At the time of this writing,Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of BABA either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship ...

Last month, Chinese tech conglomerate Alibaba debuted a fast delivery service it dubbed “instant commerce.”On the company’s earnings call Thursday (May 15), analysts wanted to know: Why now, especially given recent intensification in the food delivery space?Fan Jiang, CEO of the company’s eCommerce segment, argued the company has some notable advantages, having built up its delivery capabilities for years, while also investing in and developing the Freshippo grocery chain.“One thing to note about this insta ...

Alibaba Group Holding Limited's (NYSE: BABA ) March quarter results have just been released, and the market does not seem enthusiastic at all. The stock is down 8%, but frankly I don't understand why.Hi there, welcome to my profile. My name is Eugenio Catone, I live in Italy and I am 26 years old.In 2023 I graduated in Business Administration and I completed CFA level 1 in 2024. I am currently a Popular Investor on the investing platform eToro, you can see there my public portfolio. My interest in financial ...

趋势投资策略 - 短期投资或交易中趋势是关键但把握入场时机对成功至关重要[1] - 股价趋势逆转可能导致短期资本损失需结合基本面强劲和盈利预测上调等因素维持动能[2] - "近期价格动能"筛选工具可识别处于上升趋势且交易于52周高-低区间上部的股票[3] 阿里巴巴(BABA)投资亮点 - 过去12周股价上涨6.6%反映投资者对其潜在上涨空间的持续认可[4] - 过去4周股价涨幅达25.6%显示趋势延续当前交易于52周高-低区间的81.2%位置接近突破点[5] - 获Zacks排名2(买入)位列4000多只股票前20%盈利预测修正趋势和EPS意外为主要考量因素[6] 评级系统与基本面 - Zacks排名系统基于盈利预测相关四因素1(强力买入)股票自1988年平均年回报率达+25%[7] - 券商平均推荐评级为1(强力买入)显示机构对其短期价格表现高度乐观[7] 其他投资工具 - 除BABA外"近期价格动能"筛选工具可识别其他符合标准的股票[8] - Zacks提供超过45种专业筛选策略可根据个人投资风格选择[8] - Zacks Research Wizard支持策略回测并内置成功选股策略[9]