January 6, 2025 03:30 PM GMT RESEARCH Commodities The Oil Manual - Chartbook Source: Shutterstock Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, r ...

January 6, 2025 05:00 AM GMT Global Economic Briefing | North America The Weekly Worldview: Our Global View After the Holiday Break M As we come back from a well deserved holiday break, we lay out our global views. Normally, our Year-Ahead Outlook is a roadmap for markets, but for 2025, it feels a bit more like a choose-your-own-adventure book (for the less familiar, these are American children's books that allow the reader to pick different narratives, and therefore different outcomes). Policy uncertainty ...

6 January 2025 THIS CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED TO MAINLAND CHINA China Rates 2025 Fixed Income Just how low can bond yields go? China China government bonds (CGBs) performed very well in December, delivering almost 2% in fixed income returns. The strong performance of CGBs may have caught some investors off guard as based on our tracking of EM local currency bond funds, portfolio managers were, on average, 3ppt underweight CGBs at the end of November. Continued economic uncertainty alongside the PBoC's ...

6 January 2025 Aluminium Sector Equities A rough start to 2025 China Alumina future price slumps, indicating that supply is no longer in deficit As we expected, the alumina future price has declined by over 10% since the beginning of 2025 to cRMB4,250 (vs. an average price of RMB3,800 in 2024 and RMB3,100 in 2023), indicating that the supply shortage has started to ease as 1) demand declines in the traditional off season before Chinese New Year (CNY); and 2) a resumption of Rio Tinto's capacity and ramping ...

V i e w p o i n t | 06 Jan 2025 05:53:44 ET │ 21 pages Middle East Economics GCC: Balancing Oil Production Cuts and Diversification CITI'S TAKE Qatar — Growth is projected to climb this year to 2.8% from an estimated 1.7% in 2024. Kuwait — We look for a moderate pick-up in activity this year with GDP growing 1.5% after an estimated 2% contraction in 2024. Oman — Economic growth is expected to accelerate to 2.3% this year from an estimated 1.7% in 2024. Bahrain — GDP growth is forecast to quicken to 2.7% thi ...

Auto Sales: Strong End to '24, Smooth Drive in '25? Domestic light vehicle sales for the month of December came in at a better than expected 16.8mm per the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), a healthy outperformance versus the 16.5mm Bloomberg compiled median consensus estimate. December's SAAR showed mid-single digit y/y growth (+6%) and a sequential increase from the strong November print (see Table 1Decmbr 204Auto Salesumry Dashbord). The December auto sales print caps off 2024 at an average 15.8mm domes ...

6 January 2025 Asian Industrial Technology Global Automation: 2025 Outlook -- Acceleration and inflection Jay Huang, Ph.D. +852 2918 5746 jay.huang@bernsteinsg.com Dien Wang, Ph.D. +852 2918 5743 dien.wang@bernsteinsg.com Weibin Liang, Ph.D. +852 2918 5242 weibin.liang@bernsteinsg.com FA demand has turned the corner, albeit only barely (Exhibit 4 to Exhibit 6). FA stocks have not priced in an upcycle (Exhibit 1). In 2025, we expect growth to accelerate from 1H, margin to expand in 2H, and strong stock perfo ...

January 6, 2025 05:02 AM GMT Multi-Industry | North America 2025 Outlook: More Similar Than Different See a return to positive revisions in 2025 behind sustained capex strength & tariff tailwinds. We maintain an Attractive view on US Industrials into 2025. The core pillars of the "Back to GDP +3" thesis from our early September launch have only strengthened — namely stronger & more durable growth behind Improved ROI on Efficiency + US Reshoring. Evolving geopolitics + a Trump presidency signals rising prote ...

V i e w p o i n t | 06 Jan 2025 05:53:27 ET │ 48 pages China Healthcare 2025 Outlook: New Wallet Opening Up – Transformation into Multi- Payer System CITI'S TAKE 2025 marks the beginning of the most positive structural change in China healthcare – the first time the system is ready (in terms of technical requirements & regulations) to involve commercial insurance as significant payers - we expect potential launch of significant national policies in 1Q25. We recommend buying direct beneficiaries of reform: p ...

V i e w p o i n t | 06 Jan 2025 10:43:18 ET │ 74 pages Pan-Asia Internet 2025 Outlook: Quality Profit, Moderated Competition & AI Impact CITI'S TAKE Global internet sector performance varied in 2024: India outperformed with +73.7%, SEA +35.3%, Japan +35.0% and the US +33.8%, while China and Korea underperformed at +15.6% and -11.4% (vs. S&P 500 +23.3%, Nikkei +19.2%, HSI +17.7%, Nifty 50 +8.8% and KOSPI -9.6%). Geopolitical tension and changes to tariff and regulatory policy could continue affecting investo ...