2026 年 07 月 14 日 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 宏观分域下，经济上行、下行阶段分别训练 GRU 模型后两种环境下的 IC、收益都有改 善，上行期改善相对明显，沪深 300、中证 500 股票池的改善情况也优于小股票池； 趋势震荡状态分域中，震荡状态 GRU 模型的改善更加明显； 其他市场变量：稳定性弱于前两种，高波动环境、行业分离度偏弱时改善更明显。 GRU 选股模型的时序分域探索 ——量化策略演进手记系列之三 相关研究 证券分析师 此外，我们尝试将统一模型、宏观分域、趋势状态分域三种方法的因子值加入沪深 300、 中证 500 的因子共振指数增强模型，两种分域模型都对 300、500 指数增强的表现有明 显的增量贡献，趋势震荡分域在沪深 300 指数增强中的超额收益贡献相比原模型增加在 1%左右，而宏观分域、趋势震荡在中证 500 指数增强中的超额收益贡献相比原模型增 ...

Marjan Daeipour - Specialist Sales - European Healthcare AC (44 20) 7134-1329 marjan.daeipour@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Europe Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N Smith & Nephew: Negative read from HCA Marjan Daeipour +44 207 134 1329 marjan.daeipour@jpmorgan.com HCA's Q2 profit warning does not bode well for Smith & Nephew. HCA negative pre-announcement out, citing that in Q2 they saw negative mix from an increase in uninsured patients, primarily due to lost coverage in the health insurance exch ...

July 14, 2026 12:01 PM GMT Refiners | Asia Pacific The "Golden Age" Fuel markets have weathered three shocks in six years and emerged stronger each time. We see more legs to our bullish fuel refining cycle view. Asian refiners should enjoy a new higher mid-cycle - the market overestimates new capacity addition and underestimates disruption to existing capacity. Key Takeaways Go Refining! The Refining Golden Age we expected in 2018, has got stronger in the last six years. Fuel consumption has risen 1.4x fast ...

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 14 July 2026 BizLink Power fuels growth with CPO adding upside; assume coverage at OW We assume coverage of BizLink at OW and Jun-27 PT of NT$3,100. We forecast an EPS CAGR of 50% during FY25-28E, driven by higher power content value, growing optical/CPO exposure, and a robust capital equipment business on semi capex expansion. While the stock has corrected by 36% (-43% vs TAIEX) after the 1Q26 gross margin miss, we view the margin pressure as largely transitory ...

Global Equity Research 14 July 2026 J P M O R G A N Sustainability Flash Note Take-aways from SBTi 2.0 webinar: Progress reports to take centre stage On 14 July, SBTi hosted a webinar to introduce Version 2.0 of its Corporate Net- Zero Standard. We provide our key take-aways below, as a complement to our initial note (see here). In our view, the central question for investors remains: how will they treat companies that hold SBTi-validated targets but report limited progress due to external dependencies – an ...

Specialist Sales 14 July 2026 J P M O R G A N [It's a slow news day. The quiet before we plunge into Q2 earnings season.] - US Internet Q226 Earnings Preview (META, GOOGL, AMZN, UBER, etc.): From Doug's US Internet Q226 Earnings Preview (META, GOOGL, AMZN, UBER, etc.): "Frequent Discussions & Debates: Capex Outlook - 2027: Consensus 2027 capex is too low…we model 54% growth for GOOG/L (~$300B) & 42% growth for AMZN (~$300B) & META (~$200B)…but our bias is still to the upside…we currently model FCF bottoming ...

July 14, 2026 12:11 PM GMT Fastenal Co. | North America Q2 Beats on June Seasonality + Better Price / Cost FAST posted Q2 EPS of 33c, in line with Cons but a tick below MSe 34c – despite the modest EPS miss vs our model, we consider this a positive result and in line w/ our constructive preview (link) which called for a topline beat & better than feared gross margin vs buyside concerns of a sequential step down. Relative to our preview, June ADS came in better at +15% (vs MSe +13.6%) which equates to a ~120 ...

US Economics The Daily Update - From Waller to Warsh CITI'S TAKE Yesterday Governor Waller hawkishly said that a "hot" inflation reading today could lead to a "near-term" rate hike. Chair Warsh may decline to walk this back in congressional testimony today given his desire to give no forward guidance. But we expect a "cool" 0.19%MoM core CPI reading and see rate hikes this year as unlikely. In our base case the next Fed move is a cut. Andrew Hollenhorst AC +1-212-816-0325 andrew.hollenhorst@citi.com Veronic ...

行业投资评级 - 报告对公用事业行业维持“强于大市”评级 [2] 核心观点 - 国家发展改革委印发《循环经济发展“十五五”规划》，作为顶层设计文件，围绕资源安全保障、绿色低碳转型、产业高质量发展三大目标，对生产、消费、回收、利用全链条进行系统部署 [7][19] - 与“十四五”相比，本次规划更突出系统思维，贯通产品全生命周期，推动循环经济全过程闭环运行 [7][19] - 规划设定了两个阶段目标：1）到2030年，主要资源产出率比2025年提高**16%**左右，大宗固体废弃物年综合利用量达到**45亿吨**左右（较“十四五”末提升约**5亿吨**），主要再生资源年循环利用量达到**5.1亿吨**，资源循环利用产业产值达到**8万亿元**；2）到2035年，循环经济高质量发展体系基本建立，主要资源利用效率达到国际先进水平 [7][19] - 规划的主要升级体现在三方面：1）强化循环经济对资源安全的支撑保障；2）补齐重要品种再生资源循环利用短板，特别针对大宗固废、传统“城市矿产”和“新三样”固废（废旧动力电池、风电设备、光伏设备）设置专栏；3）加快资源循环利用产业升级，改善产业“小、散、弱”面貌 [7][20] - 报告认为，“十五五”固废资源化领域将迎来更大发展机遇，同时受供给刚性和电力/算力等多重需求共振，金属供需紧平衡格局有望持续，价格有望维持高位运行，从而释放金属回收相关企业盈利弹性 [11][22] 配置建议 - 建议关注四条投资主线：1）基本金属和稀贵金属回收，相关公司包括浙富控股、高能环境、飞南资源、赛恩斯、富春环保；2）电子废弃物拆解，相关公司包括大地海洋、华新环保、格林美；3）垃圾发电炉渣金属回收，相关公司包括圣元环保、旺能环境；4）再生塑料装饰建材，相关公司为英科再生 [11][22] 板块一周回顾（2026年7月6日-7月10日） - 主要指数表现：上证综指下跌**1.17%**，创业板指数下跌**4.41%**，公用事业指数下跌**1.75%**，环保指数下跌**4.88%** [13][23] - 公用事业子板块涨跌：火力发电板块下跌**3.81%**，水力发电板块上涨**2.63%**，风力发电板块下跌**5.46%**，光伏发电板块下跌**4.47%**，燃气板块下跌**2.8%**，热力服务板块下跌**6.4%**，电能综合服务板块下跌**3.06%** [13][25] - 环保子板块涨跌：固废治理板块下跌**7.29%**，水务及水治理板块下跌**2.14%**，大气治理板块下跌**6.43%**，环保设备板块下跌**5.51%**，综合环境治理板块下跌**2.74%** [13][25] 公用事业板块要素动态 电力板块跟踪 - **电价**：2026年7月，江苏集中竞价交易成交电价为**361.98元/MWh**，环比上升**3.15%**，同比下降**8.50%**；2026年6月，山西省月度中长期交易综合价为**285.90元/MWh**，环比上升**3.99%**，同比下降**5.64%** [8][35] - **发电**：2026年5月全国总发电量约**7892亿千瓦时**，同比增长**6.27%**，环比增长**5.87%**；其中，火电、水电、风电、光伏、核电发电量同比分别增长**2.61%**、**13.60%**、**6.38%**、**24.67%**、**6.71%**，环比分别增长**1.86%**、**27.88%**、**1.13%**、**11.66%**、**7.95%** [8][38] - **用电**：2026年5月全社会用电量达**0.87万亿千瓦时**，同比增长**7.09%**，环比增长**5.72%**；2025年全社会用电量达**10.37万亿千瓦时**，同比增加**5.24%** [8][47] 水情跟踪 - 2026年7月11日，三峡水库站水位**147.28米**，2025年同期为**156.72米**；入库流量**15600立方米/秒**，同比减少**54.78%**；出库流量**16000立方米/秒**，同比减少**31.91%** [9][54] 动力煤价格与库存跟踪 - **价格**：截至2026年7月10日，秦皇岛港动力煤平仓价（Q5500）报**795元/吨**，较前一周下降**21元/吨**；广州港印尼煤库提价（Q4200）报**649.51元/吨**，较前一周下降**16.60元/吨**；广州港澳洲煤库提价（Q5500）报**884.56元/吨**，较前一周下降**15.36元/吨** [9][58] - **库存**：截至2026年7月11日，秦皇岛港煤炭库存为**670万吨**，较前一周减少**50万吨**；截至2026年6月16日，全国统调电厂煤炭库存量为**2.1亿吨**，较前一期增加**0.1亿吨** [9][61] 天然气价格跟踪 - 截至2026年7月10日，中国LNG出厂价格指数报**5832元/吨**，较前一周上升**0.22%**；中国LNG到岸价报**17.86美元/百万英热**，较前一周下降**8.11%** [10][67]

Flash | 14 Jul 2026 08:26:21 ET │ 12 pages Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) 2Q26 Initial Take - ~7c Core PPNR Beat on Stronger Fees + 660bps of Oplev; NII a Touch Soft CITI'S TAKE BAC shares are down modestly premarket on a slight top line and core PPNR (7c) beat compared to cons. While NII was a little softer than expected (1c headwind), Global Markets drove most of the fee income with particular strength in Equities and overall rev upside (9c tailwind). Core expenses were modestly higher than expected, drivin ...